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The Great CAPE Weak Sauce Storm (or Disappointment and Hindenburg like Fail)

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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CAPE
CAPE

^Maybe this guy should be limited to zero daily posts.

stormtracker
stormtracker

Let's either reel this in, or lament about the mythical curse and assign sentience to the atmosphere.   

WxUSAF
WxUSAF

Wrong fail Storm

psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 2/23/2022 at 10:56 AM, CAPE said:

Difficult to see how this can work out given how things have 'evolved' on the guidance over the last day or so. In a nutshell the northern stream energy has no sharpness and no dig. It is a broad, flattish vorticity lobe with the vorticity spread out within that lobe. Earlier runs were depicting a sharper, more elongated wave that dropped down the east side of the ridge far enough west that it was able to interact with the shortwave ejecting out of the SW.

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Once it became apparent we wouldn’t get the tpv displacement we wanted and thus was just another iteration of the same pattern I didn’t give it much chance. We had some luck early during the transition when the AO was still beat neutral. But ever since this became a pure pac driven pattern with a +++AO it’s been mostly fail city. 
 

We had a similar problem early in 2015 before the tpv became displaced into Quebec in Feb.  The amplitude waves need to overcome the progressive flow will usually mean they also lift too far north because of the lack of blocking. We’re left walking a tightrope. 
 

I have slightly more interest with guidance suggesting the AO is about to flip. It’s too far out but that could change the equation in our favor. Of course we’re in March by then so…

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 2/23/2022 at 10:49 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

Thread killed it. 

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Nothing killed it. In reality it (our storm) never existed. It was always going to end up however it ends up. NWP mathematical model simulations will always have error, and we, being silly humans, are generally willing to invest in what we would like to be true.

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
  On 2/23/2022 at 11:15 PM, CAPE said:
Nothing killed it. In reality it (our storm) never existed. It was always going to end up however it ends up. NWP mathematical model simulations will always have error, and we, being silly humans, are generally willing to invest in what we would like to be true.
This might of been the worst storm thread since the internet was invented in 1995
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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
  On 2/24/2022 at 1:32 AM, Ji said:
  On 2/23/2022 at 11:15 PM, CAPE said:
Nothing killed it. In reality it (our storm) never existed. It was always going to end up however it ends up. NWP mathematical model simulations will always have error, and we, being silly humans, are generally willing to invest in what we would like to be true.
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This might of been the worst storm thread since the internet was invented in 1995

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Think you own the top three at least

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snowmagnet

snowmagnet

Posted
Posted
  On 2/24/2022 at 1:32 AM, Ji said:
  On 2/23/2022 at 11:15 PM, CAPE said:
Nothing killed it. In reality it (our storm) never existed. It was always going to end up however it ends up. NWP mathematical model simulations will always have error, and we, being silly humans, are generally willing to invest in what we would like to be true.
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This might of been the worst storm thread since the internet was invented in 1995

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Nah… there have been quite a few winners this winter. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 2/24/2022 at 1:32 AM, Ji said:
  On 2/23/2022 at 11:15 PM, CAPE said:
Nothing killed it. In reality it (our storm) never existed. It was always going to end up however it ends up. NWP mathematical model simulations will always have error, and we, being silly humans, are generally willing to invest in what we would like to be true.
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This might of been the worst storm thread since the internet was invented in 1995

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There was no requirement for you to follow it. You probably weren't getting snow from it even if it had transpired. 

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