The Great CAPE Weak Sauce Storm (or Disappointment and Hindenburg like Fail)

[stormtracker]

Let's either reel this in, or lament about the mythical curse and assign sentience to the atmosphere.   

[stormtracker]

I would like to kick things off with some news about the ICON.   It's not out to our interested time period, but...well you know. 

[SnowenOutThere]

This thread is sad, how desperate are we to track a storm.

[CAPE]

Probably a few more bad model cycles, then we get reeled back in with some "changes" in the interplay between key features. 

[stormtracker]

  On 2/22/2022 at 3:36 PM, CAPE said:

Probably a few more bad model cycles, then we get reeled back in with some "changes" in the interplay between key features. 

Expand  

Yeah, I'm thinking today will be a dip and then we rise again by Wednesday evening.  

[mattie g]

Wait...which "threat window" is this about? Is it the weekend of the 26th-27th?

[CAPE]

  On 2/22/2022 at 3:48 PM, mattie g said:

Wait...which "threat window" is this about? Is it the weekend of the 26th-27th?

Expand  

27-28th actually

[Maestrobjwa]

  On 2/22/2022 at 3:41 PM, stormtracker said:

Yeah, I'm thinking today will be a dip and then we rise again by Wednesday evening.  

Expand  

Nah usually we dip on Wednesday! It's a day early, haha

[stormtracker]

Ok, very early on..GFS has just the slightest of changes out west.  Eventual southern vort is a little wester at 72

[stormtracker]

NS s/w associated with TPV(?) is dropped further south and west a bit.   Southern SW is a bit further west still vs 6z.

I don't think this is the run we are looking for.

[CAPE]

  On 2/22/2022 at 4:04 PM, stormtracker said:

NS s/w associated with TPV(?) is dropped further south and west a bit.   Southern SW is a bit further west still vs 6z.

I don't think this is the run we are looking for.

Expand  

So far looks more like 0z/6z than the 18z run yesterday.

[stormtracker]

  On 2/22/2022 at 4:06 PM, CAPE said:

So far looks more like 0z/6z than the 18z run yesterday.

Expand  

Yeah, this run is garbage.  Gonna slide S and E of us.   On to the Euro

[CAPE]

  On 2/22/2022 at 4:08 PM, stormtracker said:

Yeah, this run is garbage.  Gonna slide S and E of us.   On to the Euro

Expand  

It is slightly better, so a small step maybe. Not sure we are going to get back to that earlier/deeper/wester dig of the NS energy like we were seeing yesterday.

[SnowenOutThere]

If it follows the evolution of our other storms we should see a decent storm on the models for a bit (yesterday) then it goes in the wrong direction fast, a bit past 100 hours out. Then over the following days as the threat reaches inside 100 hours small treads start making the storm possible again but it is generally locked in as a minor event. Finally, after days of minor progress to an possible event one run from the globals destroy the event. However, people still cling to the short term models as they slowly remove any hope, in the end we get around .5 of an inch.

[CAPE]

We have gone from this..

To this over the past few runs

We may need a new player to show up lol

[psuhoffman]

  On 2/22/2022 at 4:12 PM, CAPE said:

It is slightly better, so a small step maybe. Not sure we are going to get back to that earlier/deeper/wester dig of the NS energy like we were seeing yesterday.

Expand  

And even in those best runs it was kinda a pathetic weak sauce system.  4/10ths qpf with temps near freezing in late Feb isn’t gonna do much damage. And you’re talking about that like it’s some high water mark we can’t get back too. Lol 

[CAPE]

  On 2/22/2022 at 4:23 PM, psuhoffman said:

And even in those best runs it was kinda a pathetic weak sauce system.  4/10ths qpf with temps near freezing in late Feb isn’t gonna do much damage. And you’re talking about that like it’s some high water mark we can’t get back too. Lol 

Expand  

Doesn't have to be a qpf bomb, at least for me. Rates and time of day matter more. The 12z/18z GFS simulations of yesterday had 4-6" (10:1) from the DC area across to central DE. I'd take that.

[WinterWxLuvr]

  On 2/22/2022 at 3:18 PM, stormtracker said:

Let's either reel this in, or lament about the mythical curse and assign sentience to the atmosphere.   

Expand  

Lol, I like that tag you out on it. 

[CAPE]

Those runs were pretty juiced up too with over an inch of precip not too far south. The qpf for the snow area was 0.50-0.65". If that's weak sauce, I like weak sauce.

[WinterWxLuvr]

  On 2/22/2022 at 4:39 PM, CAPE said:

Those runs were pretty juiced up too with over an inch of precip not too far south. The qpf for the snow area was 0.50-0.65". If that's weak sauce, I like weak sauce.

Expand  

If it’s less than historic, it’s not worth tracking. Try to keep up brother 

[CAPE]

Ok, on to the Euro. The goal is to get back to a weak sauce storm.

[CAPE]

The thread title could use a little revising maybe. I simply identified this as a window for a possible sneaky wave behind the late week storm that had fail written all over it. I was already looking ahead.

The Great CAPE storm is a little hyperbolic. 

(That one happened in early January. )

[stormtracker]

  On 2/22/2022 at 4:39 PM, CAPE said:

Those runs were pretty juiced up too with over an inch of precip not too far south. The qpf for the snow area was 0.50-0.65". If that's weak sauce, I like weak sauce.

Expand  

I'm with you brotha

[CAPE]

The Canadians say no at 12z.

Enjoy the Euro run y'all.

I have one of those 'play nice in the workplace' deals to attend for like the 30th time. Always need refreshers on how to behave professionally.

[Yeoman]

  On 2/22/2022 at 5:05 PM, CAPE said:

The Canadians say no at 12z.

Enjoy the Euro run y'all.

I have one of those 'play nice in the workplace' deals to attend for like the 30th time. Always need refreshers on how to behave professionally.

Expand  

If they tell you that you're hogging all the network bandwidth surfing weatherbell and americanwx, it's definitely best to tell them to f- off in a professional manner..

[RitualOfTheTrout]

  On 2/22/2022 at 5:05 PM, CAPE said:

The Canadians say no at 12z.

Enjoy the Euro run y'all.

I have one of those 'play nice in the workplace' deals to attend for like the 30th time. Always need refreshers on how to behave professionally.

Expand  

Any chance that work place training is "How to remain respectful and professional with colleagues after the 12z model runs take away your snow."?

[WEATHER53]

  On 2/22/2022 at 4:21 PM, CAPE said:

We have gone from this..

To this over the past few runs

We may need a new player to show up lol

Expand  

We need a new method of forecasting 

[Hoosier]

  On 2/22/2022 at 3:18 PM, stormtracker said:

Let's either reel this in, or lament about the mythical curse and assign sentience to the atmosphere.   

Expand  

DC seems to be doing ok this winter.  12.3" so far, which is above average to date.  

[psuhoffman]

  On 2/22/2022 at 4:30 PM, CAPE said:

Doesn't have to be a qpf bomb, at least for me. Rates and time of day matter more. The 12z/18z GFS simulations of yesterday had 4-6" (10:1) from the DC area across to central DE. I'd take that.

Expand  

I guess location matters. The most amped run we had was like .25 qpf up here and you talk about that like it was likely something we can’t get back too. So sorry if I’m lacking enthusiasm for something that the best run of any model ever showed still wasn’t amplified enough to be anything more than another fringe nuisance event for my location.  

[stormtracker]

Yeah, Euro is gonna be shit