MJO812 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro Cold and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 There'll be a north bump in the late innings. Always happens with these. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Don't these secondary coastal lows usually take more moisture from the primary than models suggest though? That seems like what KBUF discussion has been suggesting the last few days kind of downplaying what models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 48 minutes ago, Leelee said: Don't these secondary coastal lows usually take more moisture from the primary than models suggest though? That seems like what KBUF discussion has been suggesting the last few days kind of downplaying what models are showing. Yeah that can be an issue too with these handoffs. Plenty can go wrong for sure... primary too far north (mixing, dry slot)... or secondary forms and pulls the precip and energy toward the coast while robbing areas in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 12z Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Euro really doesn’t like this storm for WNY. It’ll be fun to see which is right- GFS VS EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 23 minutes ago, Leelee said: Don't these secondary coastal lows usually take more moisture from the primary than models suggest though? That seems like what KBUF discussion has been suggesting the last few days kind of downplaying what models are showing. Depends on the transfer. If the primary holds on longer then no. Not surprisingly the models are struggling with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Euro really doesn’t like this storm for WNY. It’ll be fun to see which is right- GFS VS EURO Ahhh but it does show quite a bit of enhancement which I believe will play out, and really the Euro is in its own at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 My bet would be that the primary holds longer. IIRC this seems to have happened quite a bit over the past few seasons. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 18z NBM... widespread 6-9 locally higher in ENY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 18z NBM... widespread 6-9 locally higher in ENY And that’s at 10:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Ahhh but it does show quite a bit of enhancement which I believe will play out, and really the Euro is in its own at this point I think this is the wildcard. Anywhere from Buffalo to western Syracuse could see a few extra inches of fluff. I’m expecting it tbh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Overall will have snow amounts through Friday within the advisory range for this system. Sleet and any freezing rain to the south will hold snow amounts down across the Southern Tier. These type of system`s also have a tendency have a shorter period of snowfall as a secondary surface low forms off the coastline and associated lift with the primary low diminishes. The position of the surface low close by us within a progressive flow aloft does not lend to any large snow accumulations from the deformation band. Highest snow totals may end up east of Lake Ontario where a greater SWE will occur with the high to the north maintaining a cold lower layer, and also along the southern Lake Ontario shoreline where lake enhancement may add a few extra inches of snow to bring the greatest snow totals for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 49 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 18z NBM... widespread 6-9 locally higher in ENY I'll take 1" QPF as snow. Euro is a little concerning but you have to expect a late N push. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Not a huge difference in track but mix line pushed farther north this run .. Still not totally in its "good" range though.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Nam way north with higher totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Happens every storm once the NAM gets into range.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Looks like the icon from a couple days ago lol Making it to CNY before it transfers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Haha. It's become so predictable. Finger Lakes Furnace Effect. Has me making it into double digits, but that's with taint kissing the doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 I guess it’s possible. I don’t see it this far north. Not with this HP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 I don't know which option I'd prefer. Seems the longer the primary holds on, the better the thumping is and we actually get more snow here. Just gotta play with fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: I guess it’s possible. I don’t see it this far north. Not with this HP I've said that with several different systems this winter and the NAM... and it's done well. I thought, "There's no way" and then...it happens. The HP isn't really locked in place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: I've said that with several different systems this winter and the NAM... and it's done well. I thought, "There's no way" and then...it happens. The HP isn't really locked in place. Yeah. It has done well. Even in longer range. Can’t discount it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Move that mix line north 50 miles and it’s over the lake….we’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Jamestown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Jamestown Methtown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Jamestown ...to Syracuse. How many times have we seen this play out!? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: ...to Syracuse. How many times have we seen this play out!? Freaking constantly! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Regardless looks like a 6 to 9 inch event. A decent little event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 LR 3k.. Pretty similar to the 12k at this hour, maybe slightly faster, 1mb stronger.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now