rochesterdave Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 EURO is now showing more snow in NYC than WNY. Boooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: EURO is now showing more snow in NYC than WNY. Boooo Euro was too far south on the last one of these storms. Consistently had southern tier within the axis of heaviest snow but ended up busting a good 40 miles too far south. Gotta start to weigh the meso models more heavily starting with tonight's runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 14 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Euro was too far south on the last one of these storms. Consistently had southern tier within the axis of heaviest snow but ended up busting a good 40 miles too far south. Gotta start to weigh the meso models more heavily starting with tonight's runs. Agreed, on using mesos. But to me nam is probably to amped up. But they will have correct idea with mids where euro and gfs will miss the tiny warm layers a loft 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Agreed, on using mesos. But to me nam is probably to amped up. But they will have correct idea with mids where euro and gfs will miss the tiny warm layers a loft I find it interesting the nam and rgem are on complete opposite sides of the spectrum right now and both have been quite consistent in their north and south solutions. The rgem did the best with the last one of these storms as I recall... atleast when it came to pinpointing the axis of heaviest snow. The nam wasn't too far off either with that one. Both were nw of the globals for most part esp the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: I find it interesting the nam and rgem are on complete opposite sides of the spectrum right now and both have been quite consistent in their north and south solutions. The rgem did the best with the last one of these storms as I recall... atleast when it came to pinpointing the axis of heaviest snow. The nam wasn't too far off either with that one. Both were nw of the globals for most part esp the Euro. Yeah, somethings gotta give. GFS splits the difference and probably has the right idea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Eps 12z vs 18z. Could def see those axis shifting atleast 25mi north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 44 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: EURO is now showing more snow in NYC than WNY. Boooo That's not all snow here in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 5 hours ago, brentrich said: Why are there no winter storm watch in monroe county? We are expected to get 6-12 inches of snow. Doesn't make any sense. Dryslot warning in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 0z nbm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 I guess we'll kick it off with the LR Hrrr..Still brings the primary into CNY with brief mixing.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 0z nam/H18.... Confluence pushing little more south and heights a little lower out front vs 18z run. It's early but probably going to shift south some again this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Solid shift for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Solid run for many of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 More "spread the wealth" look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Nam 3k is coming in beautiful for the Thruway corridor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 I would absolutely lock in a 6-8" event here. These thread-the-needle types usually underperform and -- gun to my head -- I'd be more apt to predict 3" than 6" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 I still don’t see the support for kbuf snow map unless they are expecting decent ratios? Nam looked pretty decent with omega within a fat dgz, but that could be overcooked with it having more amped look still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Rgem coming further north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Better enjoy this snowstorm. Putin just declared war on the entire world. Dudes insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Rgem coming further north. Well, it was...and then slammed on the brakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 15 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I still don’t see the support for kbuf snow map unless they are expecting decent ratios? Nam looked pretty decent with omega within a fat dgz, but that could be overcooked with it having more amped look still. The NWS has mentioned it the last couple cycles but not what the actual SLR will be lol Overall will have snow amounts through Friday within the advisory range for this system south of Lake Ontario, with possible higher amounts east of Lake Ontario where snow ratios should be higher with the surface high to the north and a period of higher snowfall rates through the afternoon hours under the deformation band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Better enjoy this snowstorm. Putin just declared war on the entire world. Dudes insane. LOL. Stop. No he didn't. 00Z Euro will get him! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 My forecast for ne.wx contest. I'll throw in BUF: 5.8", SYR 7.3", ROC 6.8" CAR: 0.5 BGR: 4.5 PWM: 8.5 CON: 10.1 BTV: 6.0 BOS: 4.3 HYA: 2.1 ORH: 6.8 PVD: 3.0 BDR: 2.5 BDL: 4.0 ALB: 7.5 BGM: 5.1 ISP: 1.5 JFK: 1.0 ABE: 0.05 MDT: 0 PHL: 0 ACY: 0 EWR: 0 BWI: 0 IAD: 0 DCA: 0 SBY: 0 RIC: 0 ORF: 0 RDU: 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 GFS has been rock steady for at least 5 straight runs. Very little change on 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 The Rapper is going batshit around these parts. Hard sell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Looking like a 4"-6" event at 10-1.. Maybe the farther south/colder solution gives us better ratios lol Seems like some guidance has a secondary max or "deform" band, possibly from the dying primary, which is what I think the NWS was alluding to.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 RGEM full cave this AM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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