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Potential of Widespread Snow/ Mixed Precipitation 2/25


sferic
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1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

EURO is now showing more snow in NYC than WNY. Boooo

Euro was too far south on the last one of these storms. Consistently had southern tier within the axis of heaviest snow but ended up busting a good 40 miles too far south. Gotta start to weigh the meso models more heavily starting with tonight's runs.

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14 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Euro was too far south on the last one of these storms. Consistently had southern tier within the axis of heaviest snow but ended up busting a good 40 miles too far south. Gotta start to weigh the meso models more heavily starting with tonight's runs.

Agreed, on using mesos. But to me nam is probably to amped up. But they will have correct idea with mids where euro and gfs will miss the tiny warm layers a loft 

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6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Agreed, on using mesos. But to me nam is probably to amped up. But they will have correct idea with mids where euro and gfs will miss the tiny warm layers a loft 

I find it interesting the nam and rgem are on complete opposite sides of the spectrum right now and both have been quite consistent in their north and south solutions. The rgem did the best with the last one of these storms as I recall... atleast when it came to pinpointing the axis of heaviest snow. The nam wasn't too far off either with that one. Both were nw of the globals for most part esp the Euro.

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1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said:

I find it interesting the nam and rgem are on complete opposite sides of the spectrum right now and both have been quite consistent in their north and south solutions. The rgem did the best with the last one of these storms as I recall... atleast when it came to pinpointing the axis of heaviest snow. The nam wasn't too far off either with that one. Both were nw of the globals for most part esp the Euro.

Yeah, somethings gotta give. GFS splits the difference and probably has the right idea.

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15 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I still don’t see the support for kbuf snow map unless they are expecting decent ratios? Nam looked pretty decent with omega within a fat dgz, but that could be overcooked with it having more amped look still. 

The NWS has mentioned it the last couple cycles but not what the actual SLR will be lol

Overall will have snow amounts through Friday within the advisory
range for this system south of Lake Ontario, with possible higher
amounts east of Lake Ontario where snow ratios should be higher with
the surface high to the north and a period of higher snowfall rates
through the afternoon hours under the deformation band.
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My forecast for ne.wx contest.  I'll throw in BUF: 5.8", SYR 7.3", ROC 6.8"

CAR: 0.5
BGR: 4.5
PWM: 8.5
CON: 10.1
BTV: 6.0
BOS: 4.3
HYA: 2.1
ORH: 6.8
PVD: 3.0
BDR: 2.5
BDL: 4.0
ALB: 7.5
BGM: 5.1
ISP: 1.5
JFK: 1.0
ABE: 0.05
MDT: 0
PHL: 0
ACY: 0
EWR: 0
BWI: 0
IAD: 0
DCA: 0
SBY: 0
RIC: 0
ORF: 0
RDU: 0

 

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