96blizz Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 NAM Slightly colder. Exactly what you wanna start seeing at this range. I still think the ever consistent look of the GFS will win. Just my humble opinion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Still to Jamestown. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 18z NAM 10:1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Bgm expanded the WSW to the rest of the cwa west of 81 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Why are there no winter storm watch in monroe county? We are expected to get 6-12 inches of snow. Doesn't make any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Buf expanded WSW a bit west to line up with Bgm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Good signs. Good NAM run. No watch for WNY. Probably high end advisory but a watch would of felt good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Kuchie for kicks. I’d take this look! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 18z nbm Can def tell it has some NAM blended in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Afternoon disco (BUF) is pretty damn positive. They like the backside 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3k gets the mix line up to southern Oswego county, briefly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 A look at deterministic models, the 12Z NAM and 3 km NAM bring the surface low farther northward than the 12Z GFS, ECMWF and Canadian. If the NAM solution were to verify we would see a mix as far north as the southern Lake Ontario shoreline. While with little support from other 12Z models, this trend farther northward with the warm layer have been seen times before. However the top 2 analogs from CIPS were events (January 28th 2009 and February 5th 2014) that featured snow totals that indeed did breech into warning criteria across much of our forecast area. This said there is still too much uncertainty to change headlines with this forecast package update. The dynamics of this storm system are coming together to produce a period of snow (with a mix towards the south). Initial snow formation will be upon isentropic upglide motion, with a 40 to 50 knot LLJ to our south enhancing the overall lift. Aloft several jet streaks at 300 hPa will bring pockets of deeper lift, along with a tightening 700-850 hPa circulation that will pass over our region. Snow will reach our Southern Tier Thursday evening and quickly spread towards the Lake Ontario region just past midnight. The surface low will be tracking towards western PA and possibly into WNY by early Friday morning. This would send a warm nose aloft northward changing the lower atmosphere to a profile that would support sleet and eventually freezing rain. Again, the NAM is the farthest northward with this warm layer...one that would bring a mix up to the southern Lake Ontario shoreline. For now we will keep any mix to our southern two rows of counties. A secondary surface low will form off the Delmarva Peninsula early Friday morning and rapidly deepen as it tracks northward up the coastline. Meanwhile the initial primary low will begin to weaken before combining with the secondary low to our east. A deformation band of snow behind the primary low, that along with the passing of the shortwave aloft will then be the dynamical forcing later in the day Friday, bringing additional accumulation through the morning and afternoon hours. This could also be the period with highest snowfall rates...ones that could near an inch per hour. As the cold air aloft quickly deepens behind this storm system, and ambient moisture lingers a period of lake enhanced snow will likely hang on along the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario as well as southeast of Lake Erie through the afternoon hours. Overall will have snow amounts through Friday within the advisory range for this system south of Lake Ontario, with possible higher amounts east of Lake Ontario where snow ratios should be higher with the surface high to the north and a period of higher snowfall rates through the afternoon hours under the deformation band. Sleet and any freezing rain to the south will hold snow amounts down across the Southern Tier. Behind this system temperatures at 850 hPa will drop down to the mid negative teens Celsius. This along with a northwest wind will develop lake effect snow initially south of the Lakes Friday afternoon, and then southeast of the Lakes Friday Night. Greater amounts will likely be off Lake Ontario, where the waters are still open, and where the northwest winds will have a longer residence time over the Lake waters. Winds, backing as a surface high ridges to our region will steer a weakening band of snow to areas east of Lake Ontario Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Wpc 24 hour snowfall thru 0z Sat 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Buffalo hasn't updated yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: Wpc 24 hour snowfall thru 0z Sat I was just going to post the BGM map, which clearly follows that one. Very smart, as it takes all the runs going with the secondary and also includes the mesos having the primary lasting longer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Buffalo hasn't updated yet.. I seriously think you race everyone.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Wpc 24 hour snowfall thru 0z Sat Isn't this high end though? At 90th percentile.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Latest nws grids 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 We don’t mess around. Some serious weenies up in here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: Latest nws grids Based on the most recent BGM map, they definitely haven't updated that yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Isn't this high end though? At 90th percentile.. Lol yeah that was the default. This site has 10-90%. The 50% version looks like the 18z NBM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Regardless of it being 90%, BGM's snowfall map follows it very closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Based on the most recent BGM map, they definitely haven't updated that yet. Lol yeah probably working on it as we speak along with the AFD update. The grids update every hour on Wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: Lol yeah probably working on it as we speak. The grids update every hour on Wxbell. @wolfie09 will let us know when it's updated. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Improvement 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Regardless of it being 90%, BGM's snowfall map follows it very closely. That's because they are going close to high end lol KSyr expected 8.4" and high end 9".. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Love it. GFS is the smack middle solution of the NAM and the Euro - and BGM seems to be siding with that idea. Let's go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Improvement compared to it's previous run.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Well, BGM has officially added the dreaded "snow, sleet, and freezing rain" into the Onondaga county forecast for Friday morning. At this point, I would think most of it stays south of the Thruway and perhaps the 20 corridor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Well, BGM has officially added the dreaded "snow, sleet, and freezing rain" into the Onondaga county forecast for Friday morning. At this point, I would think most of it stays south of the Thruway and perhaps the 20 corridor. MMMMMMMMM.... Kissin' the taint! I think we're both all snow. If anything, pingers for a half hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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