rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 So NAM is the outlier. I still kind of believe it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 23 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: So NAM is the outlier. I still kind of believe it. Matt? Dave? Dave? Matt? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Ukie keeps the primary stronger compared to previous runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Still seems to keep the heaviest off to the south and east, granted some of that is most likely sleet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Still seems to keep the heaviest off to the south and east, granted some of that is most likely sleet.. Wrong map. The 12Z has it waaaaaaaaaaaaaay north. We are now on the southern edge here. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Wrong map. The 12Z has it waaaaaaaaaaaaaay north. We are now on the southern edge here. LOL Soon. Many rains come. Jamestown or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Yup lol Thanks Matt I knew it didn't make sense.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yup lol Thanks Matt I knew it didn't make sense.. I don't see a warm layer but probably one in there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Guys, the Ukie is horrific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, 96blizz said: Guys, the Ukie is horrific. It's not like the latest one doesn't mesh with some of the other recent runs though. I am thinking the Nams come back a bit on the 18Z runs Rap is horrific too, but I hope its recent run comes close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: I saw a couple comments on the BGM NWS Facebook page where citizens were ranting that forecasts used to be more accurate. They were saying how 1 to 18 inches (exaggerated, of course) is a ridiculous forecast and how are people supposed to rely on that. I see their point. We just have too many weather models. We want sources to use to help fine-tune things...but at this point, the weather world needs to ask when is it too much? It's just confusing chaos. I'm guessing that's why NOAA developed the NBM model. Literally just melt and blend it all down and see what the average of the average is and hope it's close to the final solution or close enough such that major adjustments aren't required. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Congrats Boston lol The issue with the GEFS is they always seem to be to far SE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Euro is cold and south. Blend em all and we look good. Nothing like the NAMs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 It's going to be a nowcasting situation as usual lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Not the best trends for WNY. Still time to go the other way but not looking great. 4-8? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Yeah meso-models definitely bring the mix line north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Could this be due to the release of latent heat? Lol It doesn't look like a ton of convection though and I don't know much about that, Binghamton has brought it up in the past.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Euro shifted back south like the gfs. Even further south than the Rgem with the axis of heaviest snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 16 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Not the best trends for WNY. Still time to go the other way but not looking great. 4-8? I'd take 4" around Buffalo now. I think it's only going to trend lower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 There's always something: mixing, suppression, downsloping, dryslot, transferral, elevation, surface temperature... My call from Sunday continues to look good: 6 inches if primary is in charge... 3 to 6 if transferral occurs faster. Advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: HRRR Of course that’s after a 6” thump. Honestly, this is kind of your best bet in Buffalo. If the low stays south you miss all the moisture and get very limited enhancement either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Big run for the NAM coming up. Will it shift south? Will it hold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Hrrr remains north but still out of range.. Can't trust that model until 6 hours out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 What is up with the magnet effect of Low Pressures to Western NY? It's not like Lake Erie is some warm source to draw the low nearby. The last 3 Winters where does a Low go? WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: What is up with the magnet effect of Low Pressures to Western NY? It's not like Lake Erie is some warm source to draw the low nearby. The last 3 Winters where does a Low go? WNY. They’ve always gone there. I think it’s topography Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Nam should be atleast a little south of 12z. H5 @ H36... More confluence up north and lower heights out in front. Vort looks a little weaker too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 NAM looks a bit colder so far. Upper levels too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, rochesterdave said: They’ve always gone there. I think it’s topography How awful. Lol. They used to ride along the Apps...or the coast. But the with the Northern Jet involved, it's Jamestown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Every bit counts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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