96blizz Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 27 minutes ago, 96blizz said: High end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Nws grids thru 0z Saturday Always interesting to see how the individual offices are thinking. The sharp drop offs at various county lines is kinda funny. Albany much more bullish than Buf, Bgm, and Btv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Nws grids thru 0z Saturday Always interesting to see how the individual offices are thinking. The sharp drop offs at various county lines is kinda funny. Albany much more bullish than Buf, Bgm, and Btv. Where do you get these awesome maps from? Looks like they're thinking some lake snows with a WNW wind based on those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Where do you get these awesome maps from? Looks like they're thinking some lake snows with a WNW wind based on those maps. Wxbell pretty awesome site. Looks like there little bit in the grids for late tomorrow afternoon/evening ahead of the main storm. Buffalo forecasting more than Bgm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Where do you get these awesome maps from? Looks like they're thinking some lake snows with a WNW wind based on those maps. They have you right near the sweet spot! Where system qpf meets LES qpf maxima. Looks good to me. Now we hope we don’t get a rogue warm layer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Wxbell pretty awesome site. Looks like there little bit in the grids for late tomorrow afternoon/evening ahead of the main storm. Buffalo forecasting more than Bgm. The point n click shows the difference in the grids between sw Oswego (buf) and nw Onondaga (bgm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 17 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Wxbell pretty awesome site. Looks like there little bit in the grids for late tomorrow afternoon/evening ahead of the main storm. Buffalo forecasting more than Bgm. Which is funny because their favorite model has that over me lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 18z Euro a smidge north of 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 10 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 18z Euro a smidge north of 12z. Paging @TugHillMatt. Lol 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 The Matt effect in full effect lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Not sure if that minima is gonna be legit or not. Could see a dry slot develop somewhere in the forum depending on how the primary behaves/tracks. Hopefully not before thumping anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Solid probs overall.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 36 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 18z Euro a smidge north of 12z. So I take umbrage with the Euro. It’s south of the other models which means the warm air tongue isn’t in play which means a colder overall solution .4 at KBUF but 4”? 10-1? Toss. It would equate with ratios of 15-1 to 7”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 16 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So I take umbrage with the Euro. It’s south of the other models which means the warm air tongue isn’t in play which means a colder overall solution .4 at KBUF but 4”? 10-1? Toss. It would equate with ratios of 15-1 to 7”. How do you toss a rip and read 10:1 ratio??? I get that you think ratios might be higher deeper in the cold air, but a 10:1 ratio map is ALWAYS going to be wrong for some...no matter what an independent model outputs for qpf....it's just essentially a first guesstimate... And I honestly think ratios don't do any better than 12:1 no matter where you are within the airmass...the DGZ is shallow with weak lift (omega).... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 18z eps mean is near identical to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 33 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So I take umbrage with the Euro. It’s south of the other models which means the warm air tongue isn’t in play which means a colder overall solution .4 at KBUF but 4”? 10-1? Toss. It would equate with ratios of 15-1 to 7”. Kuchera avg is 17.5:1 at buf so that's almost certainly too high. Maybe somewhere in the middle but probably closer to 10:1 like LEK said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 0z nbm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Pretty big south shift on NAM. Looks solid: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Meso GFS says FU 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3k.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Meso GFS says FU Not impossible..Climo argues against all snow with this track..Now granted the system is pretty weak and strong HP to the NE + developing coastal, maybe we luck out for once lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Cold is locked in at the surface, comes down to those pesky ULLs lol Fv3 is a good bit warmer at the surface but still well below freezing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 5 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Nice look to me… If that expansive precip shield and lake enhancement verifies, I would absolutely take it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, PerintonMan said: If that expansive precip shield and lake enhancement verifies, I would absolutely take it. Yeah. I kind of like this look. Not gonna break records but I think it might be a solid mid sized storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Rgem back to a quicker transfer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Lol..these model games. Per usual, we have more confusion as we get closer than we did before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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