96blizz Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 It would be amazing if they read this forum and troll on projected snow amounts. Legendary. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Man, those New England guys bicker like a bunch of grumpy old men and grannies. When they go at it, they go at it. Back and forth...back and forth. We tease each other on here...and I'm grateful we don't get as intense with one another as they do. (Besides debates about which Upstate city is bigger or has better ratios.) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 I’d be surprised if EURO didn’t bump NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 42 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’d be surprised if EURO didn’t bump NW Epic jinx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Here’s the latest snowfall map from Binghamton. The minima in NW Onondaga county is now a 8-12 maxima Also, if you zoom in an look to the east of I81 in extreme northern Onondaga county you’ll see another 8-12 inch maxima. That’s where my house is located. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Euro is about the same precipitation wise.. 12z top, 0z bottom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 It's now time to keep an eye on the hrrr, see if any"trends" develop as we get closer.. 17z by tomorrow AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's now time to keep an eye on the hrrr, see if any"trends" develope as we get closer.. 17z by tomorrow AM Even that looks nothing like the Euro. Only hours away. Crazy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 49 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's now time to keep an eye on the hrrr, see if any"trends" develop as we get closer.. 17z by tomorrow AM Great look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 hours ago, CNY_WX said: Hard to believe we’re only a little over 12 hours from the start of the storm. There’s not a cloud in the sky right now. Agree. Still clear skies. Seems hard to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 I mean that HRRR run is astonishingly different than the Euro. Hard fail coming for something… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 I guess the Canadians went on strike lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Latest nws grids Bit of a disconnect between buf and bgm on the western border... the southern tier zones especially. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 new map 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: new map 8-12” into my backyard - was 6-8” this morning. Obviously. We take. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Latest map.. NWS has mentioned higher ratios east of Ontario/North country which is the only thing I can think of lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, wolfie09 said: Latest map.. NWS has mentioned higher ratios east of Ontario/North country which is the only thing I can think of lol this is more accurate map for WNY than the one I posted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 That is through 7pm Friday so you can add a little to enhancement areas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 We could see somewhat of a "lull" or some pellets depending on how far north the primary makes it.. That stuff over WNY will eventually rotate through, according to the NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Probably the last set of models for me lol Nearing game time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankees102110 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Probably the last set of models for me lol Nearing game time.. That Red area on the 10:1 snow map is right over me in the extreme southern dacks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Probably the last set of models for me lol Nearing game time.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 This afternoon an elongated surface high pressure is located across Ontario and Quebec, producing a northeasterly flow across our region. A shortwave is crossing the desert Southwest this afternoon. This upstream shortwave will develop and deepen a storm system...one that will advance from the southern Mississippi Valley tonight to sneaking just into WNY around daybreak tomorrow. The dynamics of this storm system are coming together to produce a period of snow (with a mix towards the south). Initial snow formation will be upon isentropic upglide motion, with a 40 to 50 knot LLJ to our south enhancing the overall lift. Aloft several jet streaks at 300 hPa will bring pockets of deeper lift, along with a tightening 700-850 hPa circulation that will pass over our region. Snow will reach our Southern Tier late this evening and quickly spread towards the Lake Ontario region just past midnight. Snow, though only a few inches at the start of rush hour will likely slow the morning commute with snow slicken roads. The surface low will be tracking towards the Southern Tier by early Friday morning. A warm nose ahead of this low will reach into at least the southern two tiers of counties transitioning the snow over to sleet and freezing rain. Will side with a more northward push of the warm nose with the surface high now off to our northeast. The mixed precipitation looks to be in about a 6-9 hour window from late tonight through late tomorrow morning. Thereafter the surface low will track to our east with cold air returning. Snow will end from west to east with the passing of the upper level shortwave a weakening deformation band of snow. The widespread snow will eventually contract back towards the lake belts with a north- northwest flow continuing lake enhanced snows through the late afternoon hours. This north-northwest wind will gust towards 25 to 30 mph tomorrow afternoon behind the front, bringing some blowing snow to the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario. Overall will have snow amounts through Friday within the advisory range for this system south of Lake Ontario, with possible higher amounts east of Lake Ontario where snow ratios should be higher with the surface high to the north and a period of higher snowfall rates through the afternoon hours under the deformation band. Sleet and any freezing rain to the south will hold snow amounts down across the Southern Tier. Cold advection on northwesterly flow starts the period out with lake responses being the biggest player in the forecast. While inversion heights are far from impressive, saturation within the dendritic layer and unstable lapse rates are likely to allow for efficient ice nucleation. This will result in decent coverage of snow showers to the SE of both lakes on Friday night. Better fetch and more open water over Lake Ontario will yield a better response there, however there is ample open water on Lake Erie to allow for a response there too. It seems model guidance is far overplaying ice cover on Lake Erie and minimizing latent heat flux as well as moisture flux off the lake as a result. As usual, only the Canadian model really has any handle at all on this, and it was heavily leaned upon for the forecast. Flow turns from northwesterly to westerly and eventually WSW as cold advection ebbs Saturday into Saturday night. This allows for minimal lake response to continue in the form of very light accumulating snow showers as lake bands lift northward and become more disorganized. This results in further impetus for lake responses to become less robust by Saturday night, as 850 hPa temperatures start to increase from -16C to around -10C, reducing lake-induced instability, especially over Lake Erie, as modest warm advection starts to take hold ahead of the next system to affect the area in the long term forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 53 minutes ago, yankees102110 said: That Red area on the 10:1 snow map is right over me in the extreme southern dacks. You should be the board Jack. Hopefully closely followed by me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Nam last 10 runs, loved the northern primary track.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Nam last 10 runs, loved the northern primary track.. Seems the GFS/NAM were right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Lock it in. 3-4" of FZA over Erie. Would FZA freeze over Erie as it falls? The world may never know. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Lock it in. 3-4" of FZA over Erie. Would FZA freeze over Erie as it falls? The world may never know. Well...that would encase our snowpack through April... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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