wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Less expected snow but higher end then most lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 KBUF mentions top 2 analogs January 28th 2009 and February 5th 2014 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 So why no watch out in roc. Odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: So why no watch out in roc. Odd Both the EURO and RGEM have advisory amounts. Nothing odd about it. Smart. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: So why no watch out in roc. Odd I think you need 9 or more for a watch. Seems like a high end advisory event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Both the EURO and RGEM have advisory amounts. Nothing odd about it. Smart. IMO Agreed, system has lots of issues. No big snowfall rates, thermal issues, secondary taking over, storm track uncertainty. I'm more interested in the arctic front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Rgem went even further south than 12z and jacks Scranton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Buf, Bgm, and Btv updated the grids. Now Albany sticks out like sore thumb lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Icon dropped south and/or colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Buf, Bgm, and Btv updated the grids. Now Albany sticks out like sore thumb lol. They updated finally. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 GFS looks good.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 The ever steady GFS… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 So roch is getting 8-12 inches of snow and no winter storm watch yet? what the hell is going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, brentrich said: So roch is getting 8-12 inches of snow and no winter storm watch yet? what the hell is going on? I think it was already explained but I’ll do it one more time: nearly half of the models have a suppressed system that nearly misses Rochester with qpf (see RGEM, EURO and ICON). The NAM brings a warm tongue and possible dry slot. They also still have a number of headlines up in Monroe for other stuff and didn’t have confidence level for a watch. Ultimately, I think we get there, but I totally see their rationale. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: I think it was already explained but I’ll do it one more time: nearly half of the models have a suppressed system that nearly misses Rochester with qpf (see RGEM, EURO and ICON). The NAM brings a warm tongue and possible dry slot. They also still have a number of headlines up in Monroe for other stuff and didn’t have confidence level for a watch. Ultimately, I think we get there, but I totally see their rationale. Make sense, thanks for the explianing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Oh, there goes the Rap! It's starting the journey to the south and east as well. As I have been saying, 3 to 6 inches here with more to our south and east. Cuts to our NW or whiffs to our SE. Same ol' record playing over and over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Oh, there goes the Rap! It's starting the journey to the south and east as well. As I have been saying, 3 to 6 inches here with more to our south and east. Cuts to our NW or whiffs to our SE. Same ol' record playing over and over. Lol. You’re the best. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Lol. You’re the best. Aw, thanks for your positive encouragement..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 37” in 54 hours at Marquette 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Lies haha Just like other NWS offices, they sit outside the city and away from the immediate lake shore.. WFO Marquette currently is situated eight miles west of downtown Marquette in Negaunee Township. The area is hilly, forested, and rises abruptly by over 750 feet above the Lake Superior shoreline eight miles to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 GEFS were so so lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: That is odd they’re predicting 8-12” from eastern Erie/Niagara eastward but no watch… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 49 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Lies haha Just like other NWS offices, they sit outside the city and away from the immediate lake shore.. WFO Marquette currently is situated eight miles west of downtown Marquette in Negaunee Township. The area is hilly, forested, and rises abruptly by over 750 feet above the Lake Superior shoreline eight miles to the east Erie rings a bell… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 56 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Lies haha Just like other NWS offices, they sit outside the city and away from the immediate lake shore.. WFO Marquette currently is situated eight miles west of downtown Marquette in Negaunee Township. The area is hilly, forested, and rises abruptly by over 750 feet above the Lake Superior shoreline eight miles to the east Buffalo airport is in Cheektowaga NY (9 miles NE of the city), Syracuse airport is 5 miles north of the city North Syracuse , the Rochester airport is 3 miles southwest of downtown. Erie airport is 5 miles southwest of downtown, just outside the city boundary. I'd say out of all those locations Syracuse total is best spot for snowfall totals. If Rochester recording station was 3 miles NE of the city instead of SW they would average quite a bit more, same with Buffalo 3 miles SE of the city. If Syracuse was 3 miles south of the city their average would drop significantly. Binghamtons recording location is in a great place for snow totals too, forgot about them. Their average is much higher than the city is. The example you posted is definitely different though. If the totals were recorded along the water in Marquette the annual totals would drop by feet, thats a massive difference in recording locations. We saw this when Buffalos recording station was right along the water, the average snowfall totals was much lower than what it is now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Euro made another shift south at 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Euro made another shift south at 18z Ouch. Not the trend I expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Euro is persistent with that little qpf maximum near Oswego county, not really sure what that's about lol I guess it could be trying to show some enhancement..idk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Less expected snow but higher end then most lol I’ll sell on that. Looks like a 3-6/4-8 type event to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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