BGM Blizzard Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Less than 48 hours from start time. NAM going even further north is def a cause for concern. If it's still hell bent on that on the 0z run tonight that's a major red flag. See what the other models do today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 14 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yikes... 12Z Nams are bringing the mix well north. Hate seeing those doing that, as they are often good with those warm layers. If the primary hangs on to Rochester- all bets are off. The mix line would go to Watertown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 21 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yikes... 12Z Nams are bringing the mix well north. Hate seeing those doing that, as they are often good with those warm layers. Yup, it'll be interesting if the RGEM amps as much as the NAM. LP placement between the 2 are the similar, just NAM is ~5mb deeper and takes longer for the shift to coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: If the primary hangs on to Rochester- all bets are off. The mix line would go to Watertown. Yup, it would be the notorious band sits over Lake Ontario gig. Please no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 What Buf was warning us about. A sickening trend. But you can’t discount it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Go damned Jamestown. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: What Buf was warning us about. A sickening trend. But you can’t discount it. Might not be terrible as the coastal transfer may keep the South Shore snow, but that is CLOSE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: What Buf was warning us about. A sickening trend. But you can’t discount it. And the coldest the GFS gets. Quite a model battle here. At this range, blend ‘em… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: And the coldest the GFS gets. Quite a model battle here. At this range, blend ‘em… I think you mean warmest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, 96blizz said: And the coldest the GFS gets. Quite a model battle here. At this range, blend ‘em… It could just be a couple wild runs but you can’t discount the NAM. It would still be a front thump of 4” or so followed by a couple after the taint but you can say goodbye to any shot at 10” or 12” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I think you mean warmest? Sure. That makes more sense for our our purposes. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just wish we could get some coastal storms. So tired of these primary to secondary ordeals where we either mix or we get whiffed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Rgem looks well south of Nam. Like suppressed. Hahaha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Rgem looks well south of Nam. Like suppressed. Hahaha Wow, much different and only 48hrs out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 It could work out perfectly for CNY, where the Low stalls and keeps us in the main band and then as the secondary takes over, we get additional amounts from that. I am actually a bit optimistic about that as a possibility. It's going to be close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Rgem looks well south of Nam. Like suppressed. Hahaha It's actually been very consistent but it's a bit of an (southern) outlier. Keeps mix line near and south of state line. Likely not going to happen as much I hate saying that. A solution somewhere between the NAM and RGEM is probably most realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: It could work out perfectly for CNY, where the Low stalls and keeps us in the main band and then as the secondary takes over, we get additional amounts from that. I am actually a bit optimistic about that as a possibility. It's going to be close. Who the F are you and what have you done with Matt??? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Fv3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, vortmax said: Wow, much different and only 48hrs out. I saw a couple comments on the BGM NWS Facebook page where citizens were ranting that forecasts used to be more accurate. They were saying how 1 to 18 inches (exaggerated, of course) is a ridiculous forecast and how are people supposed to rely on that. I see their point. We just have too many weather models. We want sources to use to help fine-tune things...but at this point, the weather world needs to ask when is it too much? It's just confusing chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 A blend of NAM and RGEM would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 The higher res guidance brings primary pretty far north. Like I said yesterday the primary might make it up to Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Who the F are you and what have you done with Matt??? LOL. I call it as I see it. Undoubtedly, I look at the world more pessimistically, but I am constantly battling my idealist, dreamer mentality...which I would gladly take those Kuchera maps, but I will only get disappointed when my unrealistic expectations aren't met. (Currently working on those expectations in my personal life.) All that to say... If you take a combo of what we are seeing, CNY is well positioned...but I am very cautious and trying to keep expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Why does it feel like we're constantly trying to thread a needle on these systems? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, PerintonMan said: Why does it feel like we're constantly trying to thread a needle on these systems? Because we are. They're freaking annoying. That's why I said I am ready for some coastal storms...like the ones that used to exist in the 90s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The higher res guidance brings primary pretty far north. Like I said yesterday the primary might make it up to Buffalo. The big problem with this is we rely almost entirely on the thump. No extra lake love with a track like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Because we are. They're freaking annoying. That's why I said I am ready for some coastal storms...like the ones that used to exist in the 90s. Then you’d be freaking out because Syracuse was always on the far western envelope. Those weren’t gimmies. But Syracuse often cashed in. Better than mixing I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 This is a fast moving system with the primary low transferring to a secondary or coastal low. This may reduce the time for snow accumulation across western NY. There is also the potential for mixed precipitation across the Southern Tier. Snowfall totals are currently leaning towards the Advisory range with 4-8 inches in 24 hours across western NY Thursday evening to Friday evening. A trace to a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation is also possible across the Southern Tier Friday. Higher snowfall are possible across the North Country especially on the Tug Hill where greater than 9 inches in 24 hours is possible. Snow will linger southeast of the Lakes Friday night and may pick up another 1-2 inches Friday night. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego late Thursday evening with the higher totals on the Tug Hill and Lewis county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Then you’d be freaking out because Syracuse was always on the far western envelope. Those weren’t gimmies. But Syracuse often cashed in. Better than mixing I guess. Yeah, I realize Syracuse seems to be on the edge with everything. However, even getting whiffed with those would bring a better chance for lake enhanced snows to CNY. With coastals absent, we haven't had much moisture going over the lakes to provide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Gfs colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Quite the spread so close to the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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