vortmax Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Yep! Never ending. Eastern Finger Lakes to Syracuse area. Hope we get a long-term WNW LE event to bring SYR back to the party - or maybe even a good old fash Miller A. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 I can already tell you how it plays out. Precip. fading as it moves over the Finger Lakes region. New banding forms on a line from Utica to Cazenovia to Cortland to Ithaca and Southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yep! Never ending. Eastern Finger Lakes to Syracuse area. I would say south central NY. I don't think it makes it as far north as SYR, but the last few runs get it close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Might be a dry slot somewhere when that secondary takes over. Yeah I’m thinking the central southern tier towards Binghamton. WNY as Devin posted looks 6-10” with enhancement and ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: I would say south central NY. I don't think it makes it as far north as SYR, but the last few runs get it close. Wow dude get out of my brain… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I would say south central NY. I don't think it makes it as far north as SYR, but the last few runs get it close. I am thinking more along the lines of when the secondary takes over. The Finger Lakes area is like a black hole for precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Those maps are never accurate with the warm air above surface. You can take those maps and move the sleet line 50-75 miles north. Its happened with every event this year. That's unless the secondary takes over quicker which would limit the warm air intrusion with primary. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Everyone wins with panel 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Canadian looks juicer than it did on 0Z run. Nice hit for most of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Wolfie is ALWAYS one second ahead. Every time.... LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Would wager quite a bit we sleet at my place with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Ukie is the least favorable verbatim for NC NY..(Compared to other 12z guidance).. Looking like a 5"-8" or so at 10-1.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Would wager quite a bit we sleet at my place with that track. Hm. How far north are you thinking on the sleet line? Maybe from you to Dansville to Penn Yan to Cortland to Cooperstown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Hm. How far north are you thinking on the sleet line? Maybe from you to Dansville to Penn Yan to Cortland to Cooperstown? sounds about right, maybe even a little further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 With pretty much all the systems this year going more north, I highly doubt the Ukie is correct here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 39 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Kuchera looks like 20:1 ratios over Southern Ontario and 15ish:1 in CNY. With this being a SWFE, I fully expect snowflake size to suck and for us to be closer to 10:1 ratios. Once the lake gets involved on the backside, those ratios will increase. Yuuuup... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 This system has loads of issues tbh. Look at RGEM storm track before secondary takes over, thats to Jamestown. And look at dry slot alleghany to Syracuse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This system has loads of issues tbh. Look at RGEM storm track before secondary takes over, thats to Jamestown. And look at dry slot alleghany to Syracuse. That's pretty much how I described it earlier. Precip waning away as it moves towards Syracuse and then bands refiring to the South and east as secondary takes over. I have seen it over and over and over here. This setup sucks for Syracuse and is why our totals have been so low these past several years. I fully intend for this area to underachieve...and that's not me being "negative." It is what it is...and that is still frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Those maps are never accurate with the warm air above surface. You can take those maps and move the sleet line 50-75 miles north. Its happened with every event this year. That's unless the secondary takes over quicker which would limit the warm air intrusion with primary. That still leaves most of us safe. Why so worried? I agree with you about 25-50 miles with the 850 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 He is probably just stating his concerns. These systems are not clear cut and dry. Lots of messy dry layers and warm layers. They tend to have very inconsistent snowfall totals spread throughout a region as a result of this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: He is probably just stating his concerns. These systems are not clear cut and dry. Lots of messy dry layers and warm layers. They tend to have very inconsistent snowfall totals spread throughout a region as a result of this. SWFE are actually known for the uniform snow totals, this looks like the case here. Also always get a late bump NW and warm air in the mid levels tends to outperform 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 It’s a nice run. I feel pretty optimistic that a lot of us see low end warning amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, qg_omega said: SWFE are actually known for the uniform snow totals, this looks like the case here. Also always get a late bump NW and warm air in the mid levels tends to outperform They have been quite inconsistent in these parts this year. Maybe consistent within a long, narrow band...but like I said, they've been accompanied by lots of different layers leading to varying totals within short distances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 Any potential of double digits in parts of CNY, or is the max upper single digits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 21 minutes ago, sferic said: Any potential of double digits in parts of CNY, or is the max upper single digits? I think areas that see a strong enough upfront thump, no mixing and lake enhancement/lake effect with good ratios certainly can make a run at 10” plus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Ukie is the least favorable verbatim for NC NY..(Compared to other 12z guidance).. Looking like a 5"-8" or so at 10-1.. 7 inches making it down into north central Jersey almost nyc… I doubt that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: 7 inches making it down into north central Jersey almost nyc… I doubt that Ukie is known to include sleet as snow.. Granted I didn't check lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Euro 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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