yankees102110 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 9 minutes ago, tim123 said: Anyone else having issues with tropical tidbits? Yep won’t load. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, yankees102110 said: Yep won’t load. Keeps saying I am offline. Clearly I am not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankees102110 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 10 minutes ago, tim123 said: Keeps saying I am offline. Clearly I am not. Yep same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Check out that narrow jackpot zone and that cutoff to the south. Would be a nice hit for the parched areas. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankees102110 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 14 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Check out that narrow jackpot zone and that cutoff to the south. Would be a nice hit for the parched areas. I’m in that northern edge of the red zone here in the extreme southern dacks. It’s actually still snowing here in that frame so I imagine the map would be even more if it went out further. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 19 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Check out that narrow jackpot zone and that cutoff to the south. Would be a nice hit for the parched areas. We have some nice warm rains coming first. Time to get outside and wash that car! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Nam still adjusting lol Even though it does send the primary to the NY,/PA border...TT back up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 0z ensembles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 ..Winter Headlines Possible Thursday Night through Friday... Thursday will be mainly dry as a light northerly wind persists across the region. Flow in the mid-levels becomes southerly and warm air advection begins from south to north across the region Thursday. Temperatures remain cold at the surface with highs in the low to mid 20s and low 30s across the far western Southern Tier. The pattern becomes amplified Thursday night as a shortwave trough tracks across the Plains. A dual upper level jet structure will aide in further development of surface low pressure over the central/southern Appalachians while a secondary low forms off the east coast late Thursday night. Increasing moisture will occur across New York State while warm air advection increases. A widespread snow fall will move into western NY late Thursday evening and become widespread across western NY overnight. Snow will likely reach the North Country late Thursday night. As warm air continues to surge northward 850mb temperatures will approach 0C across the far western Southern Tier by Friday morning. The primary surface low will move into western Pennsylvania while the 850mb low is over Lake Erie. There might be a window of a few hours that mixed precipitation moves into locations near the NY/PA border Friday morning. For Thursday night, a widespread 1-3 inches of snow is possible across the North Country to the Finger Lakes and Niagara Frontier and 2-5 inches south in the western Southern Tier Thursday night. Lower confidence in snow totals across the western Southern Tier due to the chance of a changeover to a wintry mix. More precipitation expected into Friday, see below. The approaching shortwave trough will move overhead Friday while the primary surface low over western Pennsylvania phases rapidly with the coastal low. An intensifying upper level jet over northern New England and phasing surface lows will shift deeper moisture and large scale ascent rapidly to the coast. Snow will continue Friday as an easterly moisture fetch persists across the region. Cold air will wrap around the surface low resulting in lake enhancement by Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Any chance of a wintry mix across the western Southern Tier Friday morning will quickly end as cold air moves into the region later Friday. Additional snowfall accumulation of a few inches is possible Friday-Friday evening. Winter Weather Headlines are possible from Thursday night through Friday night. Temperatures will reach the 20s across most of the region Friday with some low to mid 30s near the NY/PA border. Cold, Friday night with temperatures in the single digits across the region. Lake effect snow will continue on the backside of this system Saturday and Saturday night. Snow showers will likely start south- southeast of the Lakes Saturday and move northward into Saturday night. Another shortwave trough may move into the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday resulting in another chance for snow showers across the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 I'm within the jack zone, so toss all guidance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 We're right outside the jack zone so please send guidance 50 miles south. We haven't gotten a 12 inch event down here in the HV this year. Thanks! On a side note, this should setup next weekend to be a good riding weekend (the 4th) along with the few other potential events for next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 hour ago, yankees102110 said: I’m in that northern edge of the red zone here in the extreme southern dacks. It’s actually still snowing here in that frame so I imagine the map would be even more if it went out further. 17 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: I'm within the jack zone, so toss all guidance. 7 minutes ago, CoolMikeWx said: We're right outside the jack zone so please send guidance 50 miles south. We haven't gotten a 12 inch event down here in the HV this year. Thanks! On a side note, this should setup next weekend to be a good riding weekend (the 4th) along with the few other potential events for next week. It's looking good for all you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Primary gets pretty far north on the NAM.. Icon like.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: ..Winter Headlines Possible Thursday Night through Friday... Thursday will be mainly dry as a light northerly wind persists across the region. Flow in the mid-levels becomes southerly and warm air advection begins from south to north across the region Thursday. Temperatures remain cold at the surface with highs in the low to mid 20s and low 30s across the far western Southern Tier. The pattern becomes amplified Thursday night as a shortwave trough tracks across the Plains. A dual upper level jet structure will aide in further development of surface low pressure over the central/southern Appalachians while a secondary low forms off the east coast late Thursday night. Increasing moisture will occur across New York State while warm air advection increases. A widespread snow fall will move into western NY late Thursday evening and become widespread across western NY overnight. Snow will likely reach the North Country late Thursday night. As warm air continues to surge northward 850mb temperatures will approach 0C across the far western Southern Tier by Friday morning. The primary surface low will move into western Pennsylvania while the 850mb low is over Lake Erie. There might be a window of a few hours that mixed precipitation moves into locations near the NY/PA border Friday morning. For Thursday night, a widespread 1-3 inches of snow is possible across the North Country to the Finger Lakes and Niagara Frontier and 2-5 inches south in the western Southern Tier Thursday night. Lower confidence in snow totals across the western Southern Tier due to the chance of a changeover to a wintry mix. More precipitation expected into Friday, see below. The approaching shortwave trough will move overhead Friday while the primary surface low over western Pennsylvania phases rapidly with the coastal low. An intensifying upper level jet over northern New England and phasing surface lows will shift deeper moisture and large scale ascent rapidly to the coast. Snow will continue Friday as an easterly moisture fetch persists across the region. Cold air will wrap around the surface low resulting in lake enhancement by Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Any chance of a wintry mix across the western Southern Tier Friday morning will quickly end as cold air moves into the region later Friday. Additional snowfall accumulation of a few inches is possible Friday-Friday evening. Winter Weather Headlines are possible from Thursday night through Friday night. Temperatures will reach the 20s across most of the region Friday with some low to mid 30s near the NY/PA border. Cold, Friday night with temperatures in the single digits across the region. Lake effect snow will continue on the backside of this system Saturday and Saturday night. Snow showers will likely start south- southeast of the Lakes Saturday and move northward into Saturday night. Another shortwave trough may move into the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday resulting in another chance for snow showers across the region I’d like to say I’ve never seen the NWS so confused but I’d be lying… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Current nws grids for snowfall thru 12z Friday. Easy to see the cwa border between Buf/Bgm and Ctp (the state line until Bradford county and Luzerne county Pa). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Rgem pretty much solid for all.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem pretty much solid for all.. Looks like a widespread 5-10” high end advisory low end warning event for all of Upstate. Get to the HV and looks like almost a lock for a Warning event of 8-12” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 36 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem pretty much solid for all.. I speak for @yankees102110when I say we support this solution. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Not much difference, noise..lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Not much difference, noise..lol Other than it dropped the low from West Central PA to northern WV? Haha...and didn't change any outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankees102110 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: I speak for @yankees102110when I say we support this solution. I would be 100000000000% in support of this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Other than it dropped the low from West Central PA to northern WV? Haha...and didn't change any outcome. Such a weak system that's a broad ass "low" pretty much the same 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Other than it dropped the low from West Central PA to northern WV? Haha...and didn't change any outcome. Like delta says, you can't just worry about the L..It's a broad circulation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Kuchera looks like 20:1 ratios over Southern Ontario and 15ish:1 in CNY. With this being a SWFE, I fully expect snowflake size to suck and for us to be closer to 10:1 ratios. Once the lake gets involved on the backside, those ratios will increase. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Might be a dry slot somewhere when that secondary takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Might be a dry slot somewhere when that secondary takes over. Right over CNY. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 17 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: I speak for @yankees102110when I say we support this solution. Climo out this way for a SWFE is fairly similar to much of New England, with a pretty straightforward 6-10" for most. Quick in and quick out, unless the Mohawk-Hudson convergence can set up, depending on low level winds and when/where the secondary takes over. It would easily be the best event of the season for most of us in Eastern areas however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Might be a dry slot somewhere when that secondary takes over. 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: Right over CNY. lol Yep! Never ending. Eastern Finger Lakes to Syracuse area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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