CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Either way, just get me a day off from work. All I really care about All kidding aside, beware the ticks north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: 3-6” to heavy sleet ending as a bit of rain. High impact stuff. Im not expecting all snow here. Never is in these Yea and whatever liquid/slush lays on top will refreeze Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 In the end there will be a messenger shuffle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: My guess is sleet will def make it to at least the MA/NH border. You aren’t tracking that vort through central NY and keeping sleet line south of the pike. That doesn’t mean no big thump before that though. The thump looks very strong right now on most guidance. I'm sure sleet will make like 10mi N of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Cmc is colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm sure sleet will make like 10mi N of me. You’ll take me to the woodshed in this setup. I’ve been told Charlie cancels based on what happens in Boston, so hoping it’s high enough impact to cancel there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I’m not sure a foot happens except maybe in a narrow area across VT and NH? It’s been awhile since we’ve had one so time to dust off the climo with these. Agree. Need to see no doubt commitment to early secondary....will be alot of 8-10" totals. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Canadian would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: All kidding aside, beware the ticks north. I am going with the warmest solution at go-time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 GEFS mean a bit north of 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 The CMC is an absolute disaster down here unless that is mostly PL...I still think this ends up north of the CMC but that may not help a ton if you want to avoid FZRA...if the CMC/GFS show the FZRA down that far it would in reality verify way further south and west than that as they do not see low-level cold air well at this range 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Canadian would be nice. Colder than the gfs for sure. Probably a warning snow and then sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The CMC is an absolute disaster down here unless that is mostly PL...I still think this ends up north of the CMC but that may not help a ton if you want to avoid FZRA...if the CMC/GFS show the FZRA down that far it would in reality verify way further south and west than that as they do not see low-level cold air well at this range 2.5 inches of zr in SE Missouri on the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: All kidding aside, beware the ticks north. Yeah we’ll see. We’ve seen instances where that just hasn’t panned out this winter. I’d still expect a good thump regardless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah we’ll see. We’ve seen instances where that just hasn’t panned out this winter. I’d still expect a good thump regardless This is our first real SWFE though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah we’ll see. We’ve seen instances where that just hasn’t panned out this winter. I’d still expect a good thump regardless It hasn't panned out bc we haven't had many SWFEs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This is our first real SWFE though. 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It hasn't panned out bc we haven't had many SWFEs. I feel like there isn’t unlimited north trends though. That high is pretty stout 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I feel like there isn’t unlimited north trends though. That high is pretty stout I mean, it's not going to be mainly rain, but some IP to MHT would not suprise me on the least. Nor would you getting 3". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I feel like there isn’t unlimited north trends though. That high is pretty stout The mid levels drive the placement of surface features. This has a s/w ripping into NY state which typically means you will slowly see surface features adjust. But yes, there is a reason why the high is in a good placement as currently modeled. It will help the surface temps anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Ukie is quite the thump. If you are risking a warmer solution, a nice thump can help offset that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This is our first real SWFE though. I would consider the one on Feb 3-4 to have been one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: I would consider the one on Feb 3-4 to have been one. Did it have the mid levels tracking through W NYS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: I would consider the one on Feb 3-4 to have been one. Yeah true...I'm thinking more in the sense of the good airmass prior to it and the typical transition of snow-->sleet or snow-->sleet-->rain depending on where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 33 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You’re expecting op runs from d5-d8 to be what exactly? The GFS ensembles at d5-d8 were no better either. Just look at their upper levels back then. Quite a difference from the Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Did it have the mid levels tracking through W NYS? Oh I was thinking more the sleet storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Anyway, all I mean is crap that means me potentially getting 7" instead of 10"....I agree it's not going to trend into a rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: The GFS ensembles at d5-d8 were no better either. Just look at their upper levels back then. Quite a difference from the Euro ensembles. Bc GEFS are usually similar to OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: The GFS ensembles at d5-d8 were no better either. Just look at their upper levels back then. Quite a difference from the Euro ensembles. The same eps that was torching end of Feb/early Mar timeframe just a week or so ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 UKIE is sweet you Boston guys really will like that. Qpf over 1.5 everywhere. Great storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Bc GEFS are usually similar to OP. So then we are saying the GFS op and the GEFS are both crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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