Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm not disputing your forecast....I think you may get warning snows....I was just curious why you all of the sudden do not think the NAM is valid there....esp since for CT, it has a little more support now. Sounds like you answered the question already, but aside from being out of the RAP range, those things were all true yesterday and the day before too. I’ll tell you the main reason is because the NAM keeps cooling. Run after run, . Typically once it warms at mid levels , it never stops. So to me.. that tells me the colder solutions are likely to win out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, George001 said: Nah take em up. The low isn’t going to ram into the high like the nam and rgem think, I don’t buy that at all, it’s going to redevelop and turn into a Miller B. Take em down, put the drugs down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: 3-5? LOL. That’s what you posted for CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I’ll tell you the main reason is because the NAM keeps cooling. Run after run, . Typically once it warms at mid levels , it never stops. So to me.. that tells me the colder solutions are likely to win out Except they have warmed too. I'd feel better Union north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: That’s what you posted for CT Show me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 OT--I can't believe how bright it is now at 5:00p.m. Let's talk sun angle. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Well the GFS somehow gave me more snow this run. I guess there's that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Show me. I don’t feel like scrolling back 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: GFS QPF and "snow". Not sure how much of those amounts are inflated by sleet. I think I'm good for 6-7 here though. lol, 3-4" for my house. why bother 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: OT--I can't believe how bright it is now at 5:00p.m. Let's talk sun angle. We will next week as the pack roasts away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 All joking aside a real tough call from about BOS-ORH ad then to south of HFD into maybe TAN-GHG. There will probably be a very sharp gradient from like 3" of snow to near 9" before any mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: We will next week as the pack roasts away It's a cold week. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Take em down, put the drugs down. Everything is awesome…the bad trends aren’t real and the good trends always are. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Except they have warmed too. I'd feel better Union north. Who is they? The Nam keeps cooling He is I and I is he.. Slim with the tilted brim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: It's a cold week. Ryan’s got 50’s and rain end of week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 14 minutes ago, George001 said: Nah take em up. The low isn’t going to ram into the high like the nam and rgem think, I don’t buy that at all, it’s going to redevelop and turn into a Miller B. Every time George mentions a Miller-type system, in my head I hear Jeff Goldblum from Independence Day: "Forget the fat lady, you're obsessed with the fat lady!". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 will it be all snow? Maybe not, but that’s an awful lot of moisture. There is every reason to lean high with QPF. A clash of incredibly mild air, the airmass to the south is the same airmass that brought us record warmth yesterday. Then we have a high to the north with arctic air funneling in. I’m convinced that this isn’t a normal overrunning setup, due to the magnitude of the thermal gradient (that meoscale models would be able to do better with), qpf will increase a lot more than what the global models have. Someone up north is going to get buried. South of the pike, it’s more dicey, we are gonna need to rely on dynamic cooling to offset the warm nose aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Every time George mentions a Miller-type system, in my head I hear Jeff Goldblum from Independence Day: "Forget the fat lady, you're obsessed with the fat lady!". George is getting angry. All i can think is Seinfeld. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, George001 said: will it be all snow? Maybe not, but that’s an awful lot of moisture. There is every reason to lean high with QPF. A clash of incredibly mild air, the airmass to the south is the same airmass that brought us record warmth yesterday. Then we have a high to the north with arctic air funneling in. I’m convinced that this isn’t a normal overrunning setup, due to the magnitude of the thermal gradient (that meoscale models would be able to do better with), qpf will increase a lot more than what the global models have. Someone up north is going to get buried. South of the pike, it’s more dicey, we are gonna need to rely on dynamic cooling to offset the warm nose aloft. You do realize its supposed to start snowing in like....8 hours right? It's not like we're 4 days away and leading up to this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: All joking aside a real tough call from about BOS-ORH ad then to south of HFD into maybe TAN-GHG. There will probably be a very sharp gradient from like 3" of snow to near 9" before any mixing. Pretty confident BOS-ORH see solid warning snow....they should rip north of the 850 WF early tomorrow....prob several hours of 1-2" per hour stuff. Main question for them in my mind is can they get 10-12" or is it more like 7-8". HFD-PVD-TAN is a much tougher call...they could get a lot of IP during the heaviest stuff, but if it can stay snow for a couple extra hours during it, that could add 3 or 4 inches to the total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s what you posted for CT 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Show me. 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t feel like scrolling back I said 3-5 for my area, but it was me responding to his question to you. I am not a meteorologists nor do I play one on TV so definitely don't take my prediction to mean squat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattm4242 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Harvey’s new map, brought the 4-8 up a bit north. Was nice enough to keep Cape Ann in the 8-12 though, I appreciate it. WHDH’s and FOX’s below as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: You do realize its supposed to start snowing in like....8 hours right? It's not like we're 4 days away and leading up to this one. True, but there is a big difference between what the globals and mesoscale models have. Globals are lower with around .8-1 inches of qpf vs like 1.3 to 1.5 inches on the more aggressive mesoscale models. I’m expecting a big shift towards more qpf at 0z, and for the qpf to verify for the most aggressive guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty confident BOS-ORH see solid warning snow....they should rip north of the 850 WF early tomorrow....prob several hours of 1-2" per hour stuff. Main question for them in my mind is can they get 10-12" or is it more like 7-8". HFD-PVD-TAN is a much tougher call...they could get a lot of IP during the heaviest stuff, but if it can stay snow for a couple extra hours during it, that could add 3 or 4 inches to the total. Yeah I agree with the Boston to Worcester corridor. But I just mean in that area I mentioned there could be quite a range so there is some uncertainty in that circle. I like what BOX did with that circle of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 All I know is that this is getting close to a lock for my biggest storm of the season. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, George001 said: True, but there is a big difference between what the globals and mesoscale models have. Globals are lower with around .8-1 inches of qpf vs like 1.3 to 1.5 inches on the more aggressive mesoscale models. I’m expecting a big shift towards more qpf at 0z, and for the qpf to verify for the most aggressive guidance. Both the Euro and GFS have widespread QPF amounts of 1.0 to 1.2"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 26 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: OT--I can't believe how bright it is now at 5:00p.m. Let's talk sun angle. I hope it doesn’t affect the accumulation overnight. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: All I know is that this is getting close to a lock for my biggest storm of the season. Congrats--it's been a tough one. You've been locked on this one for days though. I'm smack on the direct line from ORH to BOS. As Will said, a slightly slower advance of sleet could get me into double digits, a faster one might limit me to 5-7. The other day I told my wife 5-8, haven't wavered from that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 21z RAP cut snow amounts way back north of me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 30 minutes ago, mattm4242 said: Harvey’s new map, brought the 4-8 up a bit north. Was nice enough to keep Cape Ann in the 8-12 though, I appreciate it. Gonna be a close call in my hood but if history has any say I'll be pinging sooner than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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