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Winter storm for the 25th of February is imminent.


Typhoon Tip
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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So I assume the sounding an hour or two later (which can’t be seen) would look better before the warm nose pokes us again?

Well you chose the 24h sounding....at 12z tomorrow. Most guidance has you pinging by then so the GFS is cold.

Here's the 3km NAM sounding at 2am for you....notice how its marginal and perhaps could be sleet:

 

image.png.458357984e86849f97e3180b981a61c3.png

 

 

 

Now here's the sounding 2 hour later at 4am....notice how it has cooled a bit as the lift in the DGZ looks much stronger and the precip gets heavier

 

image.png.6660b5737a003d484fad80a26abb8b74.png

 

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Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya I'm really not too confident I'm leaning lower end of range like you said for SWCT portion of state. Like Will said its initially sleet cools quick turns to snow but then warm air moves back in super in quick, hrrr and gfs keep on fighting it off, but it really waffles back and forth it seems with dynamical cooling.. We could be on the good side or the bad side of the gradient, every mile north and east will matter.  

Tough snow amount forecast for you guys, what else is new, but sleet after a few inches of snow still has a big impact . So while the snow range should be shaved some, the impacts remain the same imwo. Friday morning commute looks shot.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well you chose the 24h sounding....at 12z tomorrow. Most guidance has you pinging by then so the GFS is cold.

Here's the 3km NAM sounding at 2am for you....notice how its marginal and perhaps could be sleet:

 

image.png.458357984e86849f97e3180b981a61c3.png

 

 

 

Now here's the sounding 2 hour later at 4am....notice how it has cooled a bit as the lift in the DGZ looks much stronger and the precip gets heavier

 

image.png.6660b5737a003d484fad80a26abb8b74.png

 

That’s cool man, thanks. I need to use pivotal soundings more as TT only has 6hr intervals.

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I’m going to be heading Way up to Randolph, VT for a big FreeSledding event Saturday, so I can confidently Forecast that everything good will be in between those 2 spots.  
 

A crappy sleet and rain with 3” here in N RI, and all snow But only 3” of it in Randolph because it’stoo far north.  

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4 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I’m going to be heading Way up to Randolph, VT for a big FreeSledding event Saturday, so I can confidently Forecast that everything good will be in between those 2 spots.  
 

A crappy sleet and rain with 3” here in N RI, and all snow But only 3” of it in Randolph because it’stoo far north.  

Bring your helmet and body armor.  Any snow left is glare ice

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5 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

I'm a bit perplexed that ALY has still a watch up and not at least a WWA for Litchfield cty, perhaps WSW for Northern litchfield county?

I think they can only have one advisory up, so you won't see an advisory plus watch. The watches will eventually be upgraded to warnings or downgraded to advisories.

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24 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I’m going to be heading Way up to Randolph, VT for a big FreeSledding event Saturday, so I can confidently Forecast that everything good will be in between those 2 spots.  
 

A crappy sleet and rain with 3” here in N RI, and all snow But only 3” of it in Randolph because it’stoo far north.  

I am assuming you are kidding.  There is zero chance Randolph gets only 3" of snow out of this.  8-12" is nearly a lock at this point.

Edited to add:  on top of a glacial sheet of ice that will be really fun for sledding.

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12 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

I think they can only have one advisory up, so you won't see an advisory plus watch. The watches will eventually be upgraded to warnings or downgraded to advisories.

I was thinking the same thing here just west of Hartford in Connecticut. We're in that area where it could go either way and they don't want to make the wrong call. I have a feeling they upgraded to a warning because I think we'll get 6 in. But I guess we'll see probably by 4 today

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1 minute ago, mreaves said:

Pretty much the same here.  The fields are bare though

Yep, here too.  I saw something last week I'd never seen before.  After our 1.7" of (cold) sleet, when the post-storm NW winds kicked up, it was blowing and drifting the sleet around.  And, the same happened two days later when the winds channeled from the south.  It's interesting around here to see storm after storm and many of the fields are largely bare for large parts of the winter due to the strong, channeled south and north winds.

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