ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: So I assume the sounding an hour or two later (which can’t be seen) would look better before the warm nose pokes us again? Well you chose the 24h sounding....at 12z tomorrow. Most guidance has you pinging by then so the GFS is cold. Here's the 3km NAM sounding at 2am for you....notice how its marginal and perhaps could be sleet: Now here's the sounding 2 hour later at 4am....notice how it has cooled a bit as the lift in the DGZ looks much stronger and the precip gets heavier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: For those who are counting. Thanks for the non Kuchi Kuchi Koo version! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ya I'm really not too confident I'm leaning lower end of range like you said for SWCT portion of state. Like Will said its initially sleet cools quick turns to snow but then warm air moves back in super in quick, hrrr and gfs keep on fighting it off, but it really waffles back and forth it seems with dynamical cooling.. We could be on the good side or the bad side of the gradient, every mile north and east will matter. Tough snow amount forecast for you guys, what else is new, but sleet after a few inches of snow still has a big impact . So while the snow range should be shaved some, the impacts remain the same imwo. Friday morning commute looks shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Well you chose the 24h sounding....at 12z tomorrow. Most guidance has you pinging by then so the GFS is cold. Here's the 3km NAM sounding at 2am for you....notice how its marginal and perhaps could be sleet: Now here's the sounding 2 hour later at 4am....notice how it has cooled a bit as the lift in the DGZ looks much stronger and the precip gets heavier That’s cool man, thanks. I need to use pivotal soundings more as TT only has 6hr intervals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Crickets from Charlie on a potential day off tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 I’m going to be heading Way up to Randolph, VT for a big FreeSledding event Saturday, so I can confidently Forecast that everything good will be in between those 2 spots. A crappy sleet and rain with 3” here in N RI, and all snow But only 3” of it in Randolph because it’stoo far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Tough snow amount forecast for you guys, what else is new, but sleet after a few inches of snow still has a big impact . So while the snow range should be shaved some, the impacts remain the same imwo. Friday morning commute looks shot. 100% agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Funny I was coming up with a new map in my head, the HREF is exactly what I'm thinking.. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, TheSnowman said: I’m going to be heading Way up to Randolph, VT for a big FreeSledding event Saturday, so I can confidently Forecast that everything good will be in between those 2 spots. A crappy sleet and rain with 3” here in N RI, and all snow But only 3” of it in Randolph because it’stoo far north. Bring your helmet and body armor. Any snow left is glare ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Funny I was coming up with a new map in my head, the HREF is exactly what I'm thinking.. Looks like the GYX map. 8-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Ukie about the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Ukie about the same? A lot better up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Funny I was coming up with a new map in my head, the HREF is exactly what I'm thinking.. I like that a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 I'm a bit perplexed that ALY has still a watch up and not at least a WWA for Litchfield cty, perhaps WSW for Northern litchfield county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Lots of distractions from weather this morning, just catching up HREF actually colder fwiw UKIE a touch warmer for south CT / southeast MA, but otherwise more amped. Glad to see the dry trend from last night reversing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Crickets from Charlie on a potential day off tomorrow NAM has him shook. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, wxsniss said: Lots of distractions from weather this morning, just catching up HREF actually colder fwiw UKIE a touch warmer for south CT / southeast MA, but otherwise more amped. Glad to see the dry trend from last night reversing Ukie looks great here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 hour ago, subdude said: Good call, think we'll see any sleet for a brief period? A bit but not a ton 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, tavwtby said: I'm a bit perplexed that ALY has still a watch up and not at least a WWA for Litchfield cty, perhaps WSW for Northern litchfield county? I think they can only have one advisory up, so you won't see an advisory plus watch. The watches will eventually be upgraded to warnings or downgraded to advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 24 minutes ago, TheSnowman said: I’m going to be heading Way up to Randolph, VT for a big FreeSledding event Saturday, so I can confidently Forecast that everything good will be in between those 2 spots. A crappy sleet and rain with 3” here in N RI, and all snow But only 3” of it in Randolph because it’stoo far north. I am assuming you are kidding. There is zero chance Randolph gets only 3" of snow out of this. 8-12" is nearly a lock at this point. Edited to add: on top of a glacial sheet of ice that will be really fun for sledding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ukie about the same? I have no choice but to root for the uk as it’s the only model giving me snow now lol. This has been an awful winter snow wise for my area of nw jersey. 16 inches for the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 23 minutes ago, mreaves said: Bring your helmet and body armor. Any snow left is glare ice This is what it’s like here in the valley on the other side of the Greens right now. It’s so hard it doesn’t even crunch when you walk across the top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 18 minutes ago, tavwtby said: I'm a bit perplexed that ALY has still a watch up and not at least a WWA for Litchfield cty, perhaps WSW for Northern litchfield county? Likewise with northern Hartford county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Ukie looks great here The clown maps might, but how are the thermals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 12 minutes ago, snowman21 said: I think they can only have one advisory up, so you won't see an advisory plus watch. The watches will eventually be upgraded to warnings or downgraded to advisories. I was thinking the same thing here just west of Hartford in Connecticut. We're in that area where it could go either way and they don't want to make the wrong call. I have a feeling they upgraded to a warning because I think we'll get 6 in. But I guess we'll see probably by 4 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, das said: This is what it’s like here in the valley on the other side of the Greens right now. It’s so hard it doesn’t even crunch when you walk across the top of it. Pretty much the same here. The fields are bare though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, mreaves said: Pretty much the same here. The fields are bare though Yep, here too. I saw something last week I'd never seen before. After our 1.7" of (cold) sleet, when the post-storm NW winds kicked up, it was blowing and drifting the sleet around. And, the same happened two days later when the winds channeled from the south. It's interesting around here to see storm after storm and many of the fields are largely bare for large parts of the winter due to the strong, channeled south and north winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Sign me up for the 6-7" consensus in these parts, then harden the shell of the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 A few flurries out there, nice wintry day....love the title of the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 RAP looked a little warmer. ESP south of pike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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