CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro has that CF hang N of me over interior se NH, but I'll bet its closer to my area. The models are showing that, so it probably does get west of you, although I'm not sure it gets that far west, agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: All about that parent low. That's what its been about really for the most part and confluence more or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The cold is is more prominent and settled in across NNE, so I feel like the best surface fronto will be over SE NH and SW ME. My area should get some, but best naked twister is probably north of me because there is more of a gradient there. Yeah the CF will def be most pronounced in SE NH or S ME....but that isn't the only factor in the best snowfall...you want to overlap that with the strongest fronto banding....the fronto banding is a little stronger south and it weakens some as it goes north into S ME. So I'm picking your area to S NH to get the best of both worlds (longest exposure to good fronto banding while getting CF enhancement at the same time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: The models are showing that, so it probably does get west of you, although I'm not sure it gets that far west, agree. Guidance often lacks the resolution to precisely portray that....I'm not sure it has a lot of residence time west of me, but knowing my luck, it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 12z NAM tickling colder through 21 hours. Heavy snow down in parts of S CT at 09z while the previous run was scalping them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the CF will def be most pronounced in SE NH or S ME....but that isn't the only factor in the best snowfall...you want to overlap that with the strongest fronto banding....the fronto banding is a little stronger south and it weakens some as it goes north into S ME. So I'm picking your area to S NH to get the best of both worlds (longest exposure to good fronto banding while getting CF enhancement at the same time) Looking forward to see pics of his kids in the snow....I'll be sure to counter that with mine in the compacting snow at 34F in the afternoon. The world balance will be restored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the CF will def be most pronounced in SE NH or S ME....but that isn't the only factor in the best snowfall...you want to overlap that with the strongest fronto banding....the fronto banding is a little stronger south and it weakens some as it goes north into S ME. So I'm picking your area to S NH to get the best of both worlds (longest exposure to good fronto banding while getting CF enhancement at the same time) I agree on that...just analyzing the surface fronto aspect. Need to watch residence time of front N of me, too....hopefully its short. This will be a really enjoyable event for me....as long as it doesn't camp out over Salem, NH until 1pm tomorrow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2022 Author Share Posted February 24, 2022 8 hours ago, MegaMike said: I'm letting my weenie out. Someone mentioned it a little while ago, but the RAP is quite bullish for snowfall accumulations. The image below is using its imbedded SLR algorithm (computed between PBL time-steps) which is a conditional function of hydrometeor type (ice densities for snow and sleet is calculated separately then weighted as one) and the lowest model layer's air temperature. I like the spatial extent of the accumulations, but the magnitude is too high imo... I wonder if the ratio/stack efficiency is being considered enough here ? - haven't heard/read much discussion related to that. Presently, the hygroscopic temperature is quite deep here N of ~ HFD-PVD-TAN over SNE. However .. a key difference in this particular idiosyncrasy: unlike the typical wet bulb saturation temperature result ( 2/3rds to 3/4ths the distance toward the temperature side) this air mass is superbly back-built off -10 to +10 F (N-->S) polar-arctic air mass source that is not moving during the duration of this event. I'm not trying to "bun" a way to get to those huge totals here ( hahaha) but if 1.2" of model blended QPF suspends through this column from any DGZ ... provided there isn't a sufficiently large amount of riming probably sends the ratios to or over 15:1 - I don't honestly know if there is a ratio calculator of sorts for deterministic efforts; that's just years of experience offering that suggestion. If so, that's our 18" at maxes ...certainly 15". I'm just offering one way to get it done that is still consistent with the synoptic metrics I'm looking at this morning. Heh, these system always provide at least tedious distractions for a turbo nerds - maybe this question is one of them. LOL The caveats are: warm layer at 800 - if that gets too close, the jig is up ... that impedes by densely compacting the aggregate... well, fluff factor drops. speed of the system - I think this is moving very fast.. perhaps limiting, and adding to that ... if the nested frontogen banding "pulses" on rad, together we don't distribute enough QP anyway - you may have hinted at this by saying you liked the distribution but not the magnitude. Whether those are more stationary aligned somewhere between the Pike and rt 2, or over Rt 2 ...etc... would matter, because if a 2 or 3"/hr band were anchored for 3 or 4 hours, that'd do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: 12z NAM tickling colder through 21 hours. Heavy snow down in parts of S CT at 09z while the previous run was scalping them. So many have been hanging their hats in this rock solid model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 12z Nam still looked a bit toasty aloft to me for some, It is a tic or so colder though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2022 Author Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Brewbeer said: Thread title is misleading. We all wish this were the 25th winter storm of the winter. Lol, ...I just caught this ... ha - although, in a way it's entirely right - because the "25th" could certainly included all the missed opportunities, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 12z NAM tickling colder through 21 hours. Heavy snow down in parts of S CT at 09z while the previous run was scalping them. Of course it doesn't shift the coastal front east at all...if anything, a bit warmer in the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I wonder if the ratio/stack efficiency is being considered enough here ? - haven't heard/read much discussion related to that. Presently, the hygroscopic temperature is quite deep here N of ~ HFD-PVD-TAN over SNE. However .. a key difference in this particular idiosyncrasy: unlike the typical wet bulb saturation temperature result ( 2/3rds to 3/4ths the distance toward the temperature side) this air mass is superbly back-built off -10 to +10 F (N-->S) polar-arctic air mass source that is not moving during the duration of this event. I'm not trying to "bun" a way to get to those huge totals here ( hahaha) but if 1.2" of model blended QPF suspends through this column from any DGZ ... provided there isn't a sufficiently large amount of riming probably sends the ratios to or over 15:1 - I don't honestly know if there is a ratio calculator of sorts for deterministic efforts; that's just years of experience offering that suggestion. If so, that's our 18" at maxes ...certainly 15". I'm just offering one way to get it done that is still consistent with the synoptic metrics I'm looking at this morning. Heh, these system always provide at least tedious distractions for a turbo nerds - maybe this question is one of them. LOL The caveats are: warm layer at 800 - if that gets too close, the jig is up ... that impedes by densely compacting the aggregate... well, fluff factor drops. speed of the system - I think this is moving very fast.. perhaps limiting, and adding to that ... if the nested frontogen banding "pulses" on rad, together we don't distribute enough QP anyway - you may have hinted at this by saying you liked the distribution but not the magnitude. Whether those are more stationary aligned somewhere between the Pike and rt 2, or over Rt 2 ...etc... would matter, because if a 2 or 3"/hr band were anchored for 3 or 4 hours, that'd do it. Better shot of that is trending this N so that the mid level warm front aligns with the best low level fronto in SE NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 NAM is a torch still. Kind of ugly south of pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 54 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Relax you nervous Nellie. I made my point. You jump and flop with each end every run pal. No he doesn’t, relax. His concerns were/are valid. We talked about shitty snow growth and sneaky warm layers the past day or so. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: NAM is a torch still. Kind of ugly south of pike. Def colder than 06z though...06z gave almost no snow south of HFD, now the 12z gives advisory snows down there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: No he doesn’t, relax. His concerns were/are valid. We talked about shitty snow growth and sneaky warm layers the past day or so. Everything is awesome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Def colder than 06z though...06z gave almost no snow south of HFD, now the 12z gives advisory snows down there. Yeah a little better, but that model has no problem slamming the 750mb warm tongue north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Everything is awesome. And if you don’t say so, you get eaten alive in here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: No he doesn’t, relax. His concerns were/are valid. We talked about shitty snow growth and sneaky warm layers the past day or so. Tblizz called me out yesterday mentioning warm layers, Beware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah a little better, but that model has no problem slamming the 750mb warm tongue north. I think its time to heed that warning. Its not handling the vort any differently from the EURO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah a little better, but that model has no problem slamming the 750mb warm tongue north. We didn't get more snow along the pike than 06z because the QPF was pretty weak sauce this run compared to previous. QPF is under an inch for us through 21z tomorrow on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: We didn't get more snow along the pike than 06z because the QPF was pretty weak sauce this run compared to previous. QPF is under an inch for us through 21z tomorrow on the 12z run. Shocking turn of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 NAM looks like its starting to kill me area with easterly flow. Not crazy about that run...ticked warmer in low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: No he doesn’t, relax. His concerns were/are valid. We talked about shitty snow growth and sneaky warm layers the past day or so. Luke, The guy is a nervous wreck. And who’s concerned? Geez. It’s 3-6 or 4-8 south to north. It’s had that look for a while. He melted earlier. Now the Hrrr goes colder..he should feel better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 I think 95% of any amounts in excess of 12" are in NH, VT and ME....only shot in SNE is perhaps the northern most ORH hills and northernmost Berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 NAM is hours and hours of pellets here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: NAM is hours and hours of pellets here And some plain rain for a few hours down that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think its time to heed that warning. Its not handling the vort any differently from the EURO. It is still tracking the vort north of the Euro and some other guidance....the 12z run is tracking it over northern Lake Ontario. While others are more like BUF to ROC . It's not a massive difference but that 25-30 miles matters when we're talking about areas that are flirting with the sleet line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We didn't get more snow along the pike than 06z because the QPF was pretty weak sauce this run compared to previous. QPF is under an inch for us through 21z tomorrow on the 12z run. Yeah that's been waffling. HRRR really tries to pummel and the NAM has that heavier swath moving in once that tongue begins to move in. But yeah overall I did like seeing it better in srn areas, so that's a good sign anyways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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