Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 NAM EURO RGEM Kuchera are 0-2” southern CT red flags growing… Kuchera maps will be much more accurate than 10:1 in this storm for the fringe 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I actually think that’s a pretty realistic depiction of what will happen. 06z euro is prob in the middle of guidance right now. NAM is still the warmest by a decent amount though the gap isn’t nearly as much as 12z yesterday when it was actually failing to give Ray warning snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I actually think that’s a pretty realistic depiction of what will happen. Pretty much agree with maybe some more slight tweaking if sleet becomes a bigger deal for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Hope the precip comes up here. No sleet risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: NAM EURO RGEM Kuchera are 0-2” southern CT red flags growing… Kuchera maps will be much more accurate than 10:1 in this storm for the fringe Thanks. Right now I am at a coating to 2 inches. Any tick north and I and at 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks. Right now I am at a coating to 2 inches. Any tick north and I and at 0. Yesterday looked promising for us Meh 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Euro was a tick warmer but not much at all. If we had that secondary kick in sooner, I’d definitely feel a little better on the higher amounts. I do feel like that sleet line will march slowly, but steadily north so we’ll want to see a blitz prior, especially south of pike. We still may see minor but warmer adjustments. So it does matter in borderline areas where 1-2F change means 2” vs over 6”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Phil is usually very conservative on his maps. So this is intriguing 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Euro is almost no snow and sleet accumulation at all down here so weird, euro is half the precip from prior runs. Just a dusting of sleet and snow and some freezing rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Euro was a tick warmer but not much at all. If we had that secondary kick in sooner, I’d definitely feel a little better on the higher amounts. I do feel like that sleet line will march slowly, but steadily north so we’ll want to see a blitz prior, especially south of pike. We still may see minor but warmer adjustments. So it does matter in borderline areas where 1-2F change means 2” vs over 6”. What’s up with half the precip that run? 18z was a uniform 1.1-1.2” qpf 6z .5-.7 for most 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Euro is almost no snow and sleet accumulation at all down here so weird, euro is half the precip from prior runs. Just a dusting of sleet and snow and some freezing rain. Lol and 12z will go back the other way…that model is struggling mightily this year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: What’s up with half the precip that run? 18z was a uniform 1.1-1.2” qpf 6z .5-.7 for most Off hour 6z runs. You know this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Phil is usually very conservative on his maps. So this is intriguing They looks about right. Agree with that look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Are NAM, Reggie , HREF , Euro fine too? 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He’s just smiling Always smilin. Kev 8 to 10 easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Thread title is misleading. We all wish this were the 25th winter storm of the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol and 12z will go back the other way…that model is struggling mightily this year. highly doubt that .. this is slipping away very fast in brutal fashion for us on the fringe after the 18z tease yesterday.. having everything trend colder then a very last second flip warm is brutal lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: highly doubt that .. this is slipping away very fast in brutal fashion for us on the fringe after the 18z tease yesterday.. having everything trend colder then a very last second flip warm is brutal lol Everyone was happy down here because of the Euro at 18z. The 6z runs and 18z runs are useless like they always have been. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Off hour 6z runs. You know this the 6z run followed 00z trend for a change, so I believe it , I don't believe it when the 6z and 18z runs consistently don't follow the general trends ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Everyone was happy down here because of the Euro at 18z. The 6z runs and 18z runs are useless like they always have been. even Rgem hrrr and gfs were very snowy at 18z yesterday 6-10" for southern CT which we didn't buy , we were only expecting like 4" down here but damn what a change since then.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Phil is usually very conservative on his maps. So this is intriguing He gave a range for a reason. So could be only 6” for you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: What’s up with half the precip that run? 18z was a uniform 1.1-1.2” qpf 6z .5-.7 for most Looks like verbatim it has srn CT in between bands. I guess for now I wouldn’t worry yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like verbatim it has srn CT in between bands. I guess for now I wouldn’t worry yet. ya I mean that makes this a low impact storm lol.. 1.2" qpf of some snow mostly sleet is still high impact.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: the 6z run followed 00z trend for a change, so I believe it , I don't believe it when the 6z and 18z runs consistently don't follow the general trends ... huh? 18z yesterday followed 12z. So whatever. Worry yourself silly. It’s a frozen event here. Immediate Shoreline may be a different story. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: the 6z run followed 00z trend for a change, so I believe it , I don't believe it when the 6z and 18z runs consistently don't follow the general trends ... this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Are NAM, Reggie , HREF , Euro fine too? Kev .. The models have been doing the windshield wiper affect over the last several days. Whatever happens will happen. But, I laugh when you basically try to call everyone out about the NAM being right. Not sure why you want ice anyway. I have a feeling the models may still.go back a bit the other way later. Plus.. The other models have not.come.in line with how amped the NAM was per say. Anyway... Whatever happens ... Happens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: huh? 18z yesterday followed 12z. So whatever. Worry yourself silly. It’s a frozen event here. 18z was colder then the 12z run yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He gave a range for a reason. So could be only 6” for you. And you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, Brewbeer said: Thread title is misleading. We all wish this were the 25th winter storm of the winter. lol. I saw that change in title yesterday and I was thinking, hmmm, where have I been during the other 24 storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: 18z was colder then the 12z run yesterday. But it was going in the same direction is my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 GYX still going big here on the map. 8-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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