CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Not surprising and why the buffer we built today was key Yep exactly. But when everyone scoffed at the tick idea, well this is what we mean. Luckily this wasn’t the gfs adjusting 150 miles NW like it did in 2007-2009 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Just about all of the mesos still have you with a 6-8" thump before the sleet. I’m not worried… 6-8” of snow followed by heavy sleet is fine by me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m not worried… 6-8” of snow followed by heavy sleet is fine by me And maybe some light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We tick Everything has ticked south all day Scott. C’mon now. You’re reaching on this now with your north calls. I think a tic or two/noise in either direction is bound to happen….but it’s defied the whole north idea for the most part. It looks to be a good region wide event for everyone in SNE. Strong High entrenched/confluence…weak primary system equals a good dump for most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yep exactly. But when everyone scoffed at the tick idea, well this is what we mean. Luckily this wasn’t the gfs adjusting 150 miles NW like it did in 2007-2009 lol. Agree. So far, this seems like our typical SWFE NW tics but not a large-scale cave to the NAM (e.g. dropping pike to 4-6", sleet to NH border) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 some RAP, why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Did Harv get bumped by Putin? Missed the broadcast His 10:30pm web video continued with 8-12/4-8 flanking the pike, which seems reasonable for now given the 0z NAM holding stubborn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, wxsniss said: Agree. So far, this seems like our typical SWFE NW tics but not a large-scale cave to the NAM (e.g. dropping pike to 4-6", sleet to NH border) In the end, it will be the NAM that caves, and it won't just be a tick here or there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, 78Blizzard said: In the end, it will be the NAM that caves, and it won't just be a tick here or there. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, MuddyWx said: some RAP, why not? That was even more bullish than the 21z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Everything has ticked south all day Scott. C’mon now. You’re reaching on this now with your north calls. I think a tic or two/noise in either direction is bound to happen….but it’s defied the whole north idea for the most part. It looks to be a good region wide event for everyone in SNE. Strong High entrenched/confluence…weak primary system equals a good dump for most. The point is, many fell in love with things just keeping going to the south, but as myself and Will as well as others have said, those euro solutions are likely too cold. That’s all. I even said it buys us wiggle room. So yea it does matter in southern areas especially. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 1:58 AM, George001 said: New Euro is out, and it looks really good even south of the pike. North of the pike it has some areas with over a foot. Goalposts are narrowing with a similar look across guidance. Looks like the Euro is most north and Canadian is most south. I’m thinking a blend of my big 3 with more weight towards the Euro. I do think we will see qpf juice up some closer to the event with the trend towards aggressive secondary redevelopment (Miller B) continuing. Snow ratios I’m assuming 10:1. My early call: Boston and pike north: 12-16 inches, isolated 18 inches CT-RI/Mass border on north up to the pike area: 10-14 inches South shore and upper cape: 6-10 inches No changes to this, I’m sticking to my guns. Euro has the right idea imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The point is, many fell in love with things just keeping going to the south, but as myself and Will as well as others have said, those euro solutions are likely too cold. That’s all. I even said it buys us wiggle room. So yea it does matter in southern areas especially. After 0z Reggie ticked north, 0z GGEM follows suit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 47 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: What did you get in the blizzard? a foot? Yes . Even if I get a bit less...it will be over a shorter window. Blizzard just wasn't that impressive here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The point is, many fell in love with things just keeping going to the south, but as myself and Will as well as others have said, those euro solutions are likely too cold. That’s all. I even said it buys us wiggle room. So yea it does matter in southern areas especially. My point is, it’s gonna tic both ways a tad now…after it’s been ticking all day south. Just now, dryslot said: After 0z reggie ticked north, 0z GGEM follows suit too. Shocker…they’re the same thing pretty much. They both suck lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 57 minutes ago, weathafella said: At your age? There’s a lot of ways to think about what I said… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: My point is, it’s gonna tic both ways a tad now…after it’s been ticking all day south. Shocker…they’re the same thing pretty much. They both suck lol. It’s not going to get colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: My point is, it’s gonna tic both ways a tad now…after it’s been ticking all day south. Shocker…they’re the same thing pretty much. They both suck lol. They do. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Canadian looked minor to me. Seems like it was also less juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Canadian looked minor to me. Seems like it was also less juiced. Cmc is also cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It’s not going to get colder. It doesn’t need to get any colder. You’ve been incorrect on how this was gonna trend, you’ve said it yourself. A tic north doesn’t change all that much for most. I’m expecting some sleet …no doubt, but also quite a bit of snow first. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: It doesn’t need to get any colder. You’ve been incorrect on how this was gonna trend, you’ve said it yourself. A tic north doesn’t change all that much for most. I’m expecting some sleet …no doubt, but also quite a bit of snow first. I said earlier, it's too early to claim the warm tics did not materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: It doesn’t need to get any colder. You’ve been incorrect on how this was gonna trend, you’ve said it yourself. A tic north doesn’t change all that much for most. I’m expecting some sleet …no doubt, but also quite a bit of snow first. Yeah I thought we may see it earlier, but we are seeing it now and add the Ukie too. Again, when we said earlier today that those solutions were probably too cold, there was a reason why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I said earlier, it's too early to claim the warm tics did not materialize. Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 What’s the farthest north you guys think this can go at this point? Guidance has been fairly steady the past couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: My point is, it’s gonna tic both ways a tad now…after it’s been ticking all day south. Shocker…they’re the same thing pretty much. They both suck lol. fangs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Canadian looked minor to me. Seems like it was also less juiced. Same with the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 The SPC HREF mean sure seems to be something between the NAM and RGEM based on snow amounts...no doubt its indicating the Euro is probably out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, George001 said: What’s the farthest north you guys think this can go at this point? In Connecticut, I think the furthest north a mix of sleet That significantly tamps down on snowfall accumulations could get at this point would be maybe 15 miles south of the Massachusetts border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I said earlier, it's too early to claim the warm tics did not materialize. But That can go both ways too. You’re gonna be/your area is the winner in this I believe. Depending how quickly the sleet comes in..will be the difference here between 6” or 8+” here. Never expected pure snow. But that high means business this time…it’s stout and entrenched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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