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Winter storm for the 25th of February is imminent.


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Just now, CoastalWx said:

You’ll do better than that.

I’ve started believing in a 500-600mb fronto-band from west to east across C/N NE.  Western shore of Lake Ontario into north/west NE, or cutting through C.NE?  Tough to say if someone fluffs themselves to some decent total.  But QPF progs are fairly uniform.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I’ve started believing in a 500-600mb fronto-band from west to east across C/N NE.  Western shore of Lake Ontario into north/west NE, or cutting through C.NE?  Tough to say if someone fluffs themselves to some decent total.  But QPF progs are fairly uniform.

I would look at 500 and 700 lift and side closer to 500mb. You can use the point and click soundings to help narrow that zone in and find the DGZ. I generally don’t like using 500mb as it starts to get a little high for my liking, but you get the idea. 
 

Sometimes the models key in on those areas by showing a band of slightly higher QPF. It may not be much, but that could be a signal for the currier and Ives band. 

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35 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Realistically, how much is going to change in a system like this in the next 24 hours?  Your weighting right now looks good and is unlikely to change beyond some noise.

Not a whole helluva lot - unlikely. 

Mine were spit ballin. But frankly the blended means been some 80% of where the consensus is now goin back three days. 

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1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

re: 0z RGEM... it's almost identical to 12z... 18z was the colder oscillation

ie., not sure I'd read 0z RGEM as a significant trend vs. noise

I was thinking about this. Against the backdrop of other 00z models so far, I think it is mostly noise. The thump on the immediate coast isnt even really much different

I just saw a 10 mile reduction in southward sag of ~6 inch amounts.

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I'm confused why the Models have gone colder and colder but everyone is saying South of the Pike, like Me in NE RI is still in a big danger zone.  

 

I feel like this is going to be the OLD CLaaaaassic I get 3"-4" and Crapola that Looks like Crapola when it's done and people at the pike get 12".  

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1 minute ago, TheSnowman said:

I'm confused why the Models have gone colder and colder but everyone is saying South of the Pike, like Me in NE RI is still in a big danger zone.  

 

I feel like this is going to be the OLD CLaaaaassic I get 3"-4" and Crapola that Looks like Crapola when it's done and people at the pike get 12".  

Not getting colder for me down in nw jersey, gfs just took my snow away lol 

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