Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2022 Author Share Posted February 24, 2022 GFS 30% ECM 25% GGEM 20% UKM 15% mesos the remainder with less emphasis on the NAM in this aggregate mean for 10% 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I was forecasting these when you were suckling the nipple. I don’t know man, might be time to punt on this one and just enjoy it. Looking for the boogeyman that ain’t coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 3k colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Wrf nssl is definitely cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I don’t know man, might be time to punt on this one and just enjoy it. Looking for the boogeyman that ain’t coming. I think we’re talking past each other. But I’ll wait until 00z comes in. I never said all in on nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2022 Author Share Posted February 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Well if tomorrow runs come in a tick warmer aloft then yes. If they don’t then we can drop the weighting less and maybe even just toss it altogether if it keeps coming in colder itself. I dunno, I still see some wiggle room tomorrow so for now…I don’t mind. Well sure. I mean the discussion on weighting probabilities is based on where we are heretofore up to this point. If things sig change tomorrow than the conversation’s moot - we’d have to come up with a different percent contribution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: GFS 30% ECM 25% GGEM 20% UKM 15% mesos the remainder with less emphasis on the NAM in this aggregate mean for 10% I do like that, good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Keep in mind that nam has trended slightly south each of the past 2 runs. The cave if it happens may be in one run and go wild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, weathafella said: Keep in mind that nam has trended slightly south each of the past 2 runs. The cave if it happens may be in one run and go wild. Yea, 6z might go Roger Smith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2022 Author Share Posted February 24, 2022 I know! let’s ask George what the weighting array should be … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well sure. I mean the discussion on weighting probabilities is based on where we are heretofore up to this point. If things sig change tomorrow than the conversation’s moot - we’d have to come up with a different percent contribution Realistically, how much is going to change in a system like this in the next 24 hours? Your weighting right now looks good and is unlikely to change beyond some noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I know! let’s ask George what the weighting array should be … Navy: 90 Euro: 5 Cmc/gfs: 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Navy: 90 Euro: 5 Cmc/gfs: 5 Gfs is not part of the big 3. My blend right now is: Navy: 99 Euro: .75 Canadian: .25 1 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 RGEM with a bump north vs 18z it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, George001 said: Gfs is not part of the big 3. My blend right now is: Navy: 99 Euro: .75 Canadian: .25 To be fair that looks like a Big 1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, George001 said: Gfs is not part of the big 3. My blend right now is: Navy: 99 Euro: .75 Canadian: .25 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said: RGEM with a bump north vs 18z it looks like Yeah not by much. That was also pretty cold. Still keeps Boston snow. But yeah those ticks are what I was thinking would happen earlier. We’ll see what 00z varsity models do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Das Icon looks like a tick north. Again not much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 RGEM is junk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: RGEM is junk. Chris Davis of models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Chris Davis of models It had that one good run in 2015 and none since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Biggest impact of 0z RGEM tick warmer is to southern CT/ southeast MA areas Still not in NAM's camp synoptically Look at 12z Friday as a benchmark: NAM has primary low deeper and almost to Lake Ontario... Euro/GFS/RGEM/CMC have it weaker and in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: GFS 30% ECM 25% GGEM 20% UKM 15% mesos the remainder with less emphasis on the NAM in this aggregate mean for 10% RGEM for 0.0001% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 46 minutes ago, PhineasC said: NAM cut back hugely up here. This is becoming a nothingburger for NNE. Enjoy the snow SNE. I will have to wait a little longer. I really really didn’t think this was gonna turn into a disappointment up here but I guess now we’re talking about a 3 to 6 incher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 It wouldn’t shock me if euro ticked warmer but I think we’re settling in now. Sleet probably gets to and north of pike, but not for long. That’s my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, mahk_webstah said: I really really didn’t think this was gonna turn into a disappointment up here but I guess now we’re talking about a 3 to 6 incher You’ll do better than that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah not by much. That was also pretty cold. Still keeps Boston snow. But yeah those ticks are what I was thinking would happen earlier. We’ll see what 00z varsity models do. These ticks make me go from 3-5 of snow to all sleet and zr and zero snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: I really really didn’t think this was gonna turn into a disappointment up here but I guess now we’re talking about a 3 to 6 incher You should be good for 6-9” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: You’ll do better than that. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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