CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 It did get colder though as others have said. Less WAA with primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 This time taint stays south tho bl warms near the coast. 20 miles further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Roger Smith said: I'm representing queens but my 8-10 diamonds is a Daniel Negranu must-play. T8s crushes villain souls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, weathafella said: This time taint stays south tho bl warms near the coast. 20 miles further south. Ultra warm 2/4/2022 scenario fully off the table now. This is a snowstorm for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Seeing the nam still a little stubborn does make me wonder about the other models. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 This is literally NAM vs. all other guidance, mesos and globals 12z-18z trends otherwise were all in favor of colder... still this might give Harv pause in expanding the 8-12" south tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 That is a toasty warm nose, but most of the damage is already done north of the pike before the pingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 first call was 8-10 here, thinking that may be conservative, that 11 I spat out earlier may come to fruition, could see some very decent amounts NORH me thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Nam is the outlier, probably will correct south in line with other guidance tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, George001 said: Nam is the outlier, probably will correct south in line with other guidance tomorrow. Probably, but let’s let the rest of 00z roll in. My hunch is 1/3 nam and 2/3 the other model blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Is this going to be one of those extremely rare instances that the Nam is right? I don't think so. I have yet to see other guidance moving north towards the Nam. It's getting late in the game now for that, as we are only about 30 hrs from start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Synoptically the NAM did come closer in line with other guidance in showing a quicker decaying primary and secondary development at 40N. It’s still tenuous for areas on the fringe but probably fair to shift a 6”+ range south a bit with medium-high confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Probably, but let’s let the rest of 00z roll in. My hunch is 1/3 nam and 2/3 the other model blend. I could see that. We’ll see what 00z does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 The Just now, Winter Wizard said: Synoptically the NAM did come closer in line with other guidance in showing a quicker decaying primary and secondary development at 40N. It’s still tenuous for areas on the fringe but probably fair to shift a 6”+ range south a bit with medium-high confidence. That’s how I felt too. It looked more in line synoptically with the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 FV3 was similar to 12z. Maybe a hair colder? I’m mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Probably, but let’s let the rest of 00z roll in. My hunch is 1/3 nam and 2/3 the other model blend. Yea. You can’t toss it completely. Your weighting makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Boy Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 The NAM will probably come in with a region wide 12-18” by 12z while the other models correct north. Have no faith in the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: FV3 was similar to 12z. Maybe a hair colder? I’m mobile. Much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Well, snowier and colder. Maybe not ‘much’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 NAM cut back hugely up here. This is becoming a nothingburger for NNE. Enjoy the snow SNE. I will have to wait a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Seeing the nam still a little stubborn does make me wonder about the other models. Holy smokes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: FV3 was similar to 12z. Maybe a hair colder? I’m mobile. Night and day between that and the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Holy smokes. He’s taking his time disrobing. By 0z tomorrow night, there won’t be any articles of clothing left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2022 Author Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. You can’t toss it completely. Your weighting makes sense. I thinks that’s too heavy. Arithmetically, if we blend all other guidance, then take that mean and blend it with the NAM that’s given that helmet and drool cup kid one helluva participation trophy 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: NAM cut back hugely up here. This is becoming a nothingburger for NNE. Enjoy the snow SNE. I will have to wait a little longer. You get April deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: I thinks that’s too heavy. Arithmetically, if we blend all other guidance, then take that mean and blend it with the NAM that’s given that helmet and drool cup kid one helluva participation trophy Well if tomorrow runs come in a tick warmer aloft then yes. If they don’t then we can drop the weighting less and maybe even just toss it altogether if it keeps coming in colder itself. I dunno, I still see some wiggle room tomorrow so for now…I don’t mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Holy smokes. I was forecasting these when you were suckling the nipple. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Seeing the nam still a little stubborn does make me wonder about the other models. I'm still waiting for my 32 inches the day before the Jan storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: He’s taking his time disrobing. By 0z tomorrow night, there won’t be any articles of clothing left. It doesn’t mean all models cave to nam, but it’s a reference to something Brian said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: I'm still waiting for my 32 inches the day before the Jan storm Different beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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