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Winter storm for the 25th of February is imminent.


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Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

Pete B going 4-7 for most of metro Boston and the coast. Marine influence?  I don’t know what he’s seeing. 

They'll be some marine influence near the shore. It will be a wetter snow later Friday morning. But it's still cold aloft, so I don't think it will be very wet and/or slushy.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Don’t care about that. I see that hang back all the way to West of river . It always happens in these. The sky lowers.. you get all these posts about it’s snowing hard but nothing shows on radar.. and then the returns start showing after about 30 mins 

It flips you back at the end, but that is not what I am referring to.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'll probably hold off on changing anything until after the 00z runs come in. I do like having more wiggle room though.

Yeah I wouldn't change any forecasts yet unless I was on the low side already....if 00z comes in similar to these non-NAM solutions, then I'm probably going to up my expectation to like 8-14" for the pike region. Right now, I'm kind of thinking more like 5-10.

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Have leaned toward the vast majority of the guidance, which 
results in confidence in snow totals being the highest north of
the MA Pike. Less certain in totals along and south of the MA 
Pike. The reason for the uncertainty is with regards to nose of 
warmer air aloft punching into the region per the 925-700 Layer 
Max temps Friday morning. Have thrown out the NAM/NAMNest 
guidance at this point in time as it appears overly aggressive 
with its warm nose punching in. If correct then there would be 
Ptype issues for much of MA vs just along/south of the MA Pike. 
The aggressive northward push of the warmer air is likely due 
to the stronger 850/925 jet impinging a bit further northward 
than other pieces of guidance along with the secondary low 
tracking over the south coast vs south of the south coast. Need 
to keep a close eye on this because if other high resolution 
guidance follows the NAM/NAMNest then snowfall totals will need 
to be reduced as there will be more wintry mix/rain vs snow. Can
see this clearly when looking at the SREF/WPC Superensemble 
plume guidance with snowfall amounts across interior MA vs our 
south coast. 

Regardless of the warm nose pushing in am anticipating everyone
to start off as all snow Thursday night. Snowfall intensity 
will quickly pick up after midnight roughly from west to east. 
Will have the risk of 1" and perhaps some 2" per hour snowfall 
rates as we have strong speed convergence at 850 hPa and lift 
within the dendritic growth region. This also lines up with 
solid frontogenetical forcing in the 1000-850 hPa layer. Still 
quite difficult to pinpoint a fgen band this far out, but this 
will bring the greatest risk of those 1" or greater per hour 
snowfall rates. This will cause issues for the Friday morning 
commute. Think that there could still potentially be issues 
during the afternoon/evening, but snowfall should be lighter 
later in the day. 
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7 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Ignoring NAM, strong guidance support for this... they ticked higher totals further south... love how relatively uniform this is across much of the SNE forum:

StormTotalSnow_3.thumb.jpeg.bb03603a7f6072ed2b91320f47baae2d.jpeg

I'm selling 4-6 near the coast.  My guess is my kid gets a slushy post birthday "snowday."

Nm, the update looks a lot more realistic Imby.

 

 

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