SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 When you consider the RGEM tends to be somewhat amped with low tracks at times past 30-36 and its still south of the NAM its highly likely the NAM is too far north. I cannot see BOS really seeing any sustained period of sleet with this and BDL honestly may not either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: Pete B going 4-7 for most of metro Boston and the coast. Marine influence? I don’t know what he’s seeing. They'll be some marine influence near the shore. It will be a wetter snow later Friday morning. But it's still cold aloft, so I don't think it will be very wet and/or slushy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Reggie is virtually all snow at BOS. Maybe briefly sleets. “RGM sucks”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Don’t care about that. I see that hang back all the way to West of river . It always happens in these. The sky lowers.. you get all these posts about it’s snowing hard but nothing shows on radar.. and then the returns start showing after about 30 mins It flips you back at the end, but that is not what I am referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is the furthest north that run gets with the sleet line....I'm skeptical but that's kind of like the Euro I'll probably hold off on changing anything until after the 00z runs come in. I do like having more wiggle room though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 18z Deutschmark went south/colder too to round out the JV suite. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 BTV getting a little more bullish for my area 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z Deutschmark went south/colder too to round out the JV suite. Basically all including NAM went south vs 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'll probably hold off on changing anything until after the 00z runs come in. I do like having more wiggle room though. Yeah I wouldn't change any forecasts yet unless I was on the low side already....if 00z comes in similar to these non-NAM solutions, then I'm probably going to up my expectation to like 8-14" for the pike region. Right now, I'm kind of thinking more like 5-10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Looks like BOX updated their totals based on that gross gradient to the north. Pretty impressive considering what the ceiling was around 48 hours ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 NAM is still night and day better here than the other models. Still like 6-10 here if I get good ratios. Will cover up the mud holes until the next torch at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmass495 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Have leaned toward the vast majority of the guidance, which results in confidence in snow totals being the highest north of the MA Pike. Less certain in totals along and south of the MA Pike. The reason for the uncertainty is with regards to nose of warmer air aloft punching into the region per the 925-700 Layer Max temps Friday morning. Have thrown out the NAM/NAMNest guidance at this point in time as it appears overly aggressive with its warm nose punching in. If correct then there would be Ptype issues for much of MA vs just along/south of the MA Pike. The aggressive northward push of the warmer air is likely due to the stronger 850/925 jet impinging a bit further northward than other pieces of guidance along with the secondary low tracking over the south coast vs south of the south coast. Need to keep a close eye on this because if other high resolution guidance follows the NAM/NAMNest then snowfall totals will need to be reduced as there will be more wintry mix/rain vs snow. Can see this clearly when looking at the SREF/WPC Superensemble plume guidance with snowfall amounts across interior MA vs our south coast. Regardless of the warm nose pushing in am anticipating everyone to start off as all snow Thursday night. Snowfall intensity will quickly pick up after midnight roughly from west to east. Will have the risk of 1" and perhaps some 2" per hour snowfall rates as we have strong speed convergence at 850 hPa and lift within the dendritic growth region. This also lines up with solid frontogenetical forcing in the 1000-850 hPa layer. Still quite difficult to pinpoint a fgen band this far out, but this will bring the greatest risk of those 1" or greater per hour snowfall rates. This will cause issues for the Friday morning commute. Think that there could still potentially be issues during the afternoon/evening, but snowfall should be lighter later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 18 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Pete B going 4-7 for most of metro Boston and the coast. Marine influence? I don’t know what he’s seeing. He must be riding the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Banding signal already looks pretty legit this far out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 NWS cut me from 4 to 6 to 3 to 4. WHY WHY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hammertime goes 6-10 from HFD North we take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Ignoring NAM, strong guidance support for this... they ticked higher totals further south... love how relatively uniform this is across much of the SNE forum: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, wxsniss said: Ignoring NAM, strong guidance support for this... they ticked higher totals further south... love how relatively uniform this is across much of the SNE forum: again...we take, region wide event, nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: NWS cut me from 4 to 6 to 3 to 4. WHY WHY Pay no attention to that/them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Ignoring NAM, strong guidance support for this... they ticked higher totals further south... love how relatively uniform this is across much of the SNE forum: I'm selling 4-6 near the coast. My guess is my kid gets a slushy post birthday "snowday." Nm, the update looks a lot more realistic Imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 It appears they actually edited that, and downgraded our area a little bit for accums, an hour and a half after the 1:17pm map. In this revision, the concern of uncertainty was added. 6 minutes ago, tavwtby said: again...we take, region wide event, nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, IowaStorm05 said: It appears they actually edited that, and downgraded my spot a little bit for accums, an hour and a half after the 1:17pm map. I wonder why. That's labeled area of highest uncertainty. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Pay no attention to that/them. Upton is weighing more nam which is why they shaved the forecast down some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: It appears they actually edited that, and downgraded our area a little bit for accums, an hour and a half after the 1:17pm map. Im right on the northern line of uncertainty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, DavisStraight said: Im right on the northern line of uncertainty Better than being on the south shore of block island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Harv ticked colder for central MA... this map looks very reasonable and anticipates some north ticks... but if there's more support for 12zEuro/18zRGEM, I imagine he'd expand the 8-12 even further south: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Why change the map an hour later? me thinks bigger totals will Be bumping south if we see another cold set of runs at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 GFS is pretty cold again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 56 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Pete B going 4-7 for most of metro Boston and the coast. Marine influence? I don’t know what he’s seeing. He sucks. Brutal, brutal met. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: GFS is pretty cold again. Looks slightly colder than 12z. But almost the same. Noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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