IowaStorm05 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 GFS continues to relentlessly shout for a foot of snow. Kuchera. Wouldn't you enjay a foot of snow? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I can certainly understand the reticence there ... if for no other reason, seasonal trend to bang butts within an inch of sanity just before beginning the butt banging.... heh But this is maybe the first event this entire cold season that featured a major polar high drapery sitting over top like that. I mean, already there ... prior to this baroclinic bowing back N beginning at 72 hours... It's not like moving in as the high is moving in(out) and we're dealing with races. Unless that changes appreciably in future guidance - which can ... yup - for now, we are not driving a primary to NY state with that +PP/BL resistance in place.. And it's dense air - it's in the single digits in Watertown NY (GFS/Euro) next Friday at 12z ? Mm... hope... this is not going west of the Hudson. Physically can't do that ... to mention, the confluence is there anyway. If for some reason in hades all that and that high suddenly correct tremendously well ...okay - not much we can do about that. Anyway, the actual cyclogen mechanics are weak in this. But the BL resistance is very high. So that primary dying and the quasi Miller B translation is really just response to not being able to move a weaker circulation through the dense cold air. It's correct relative to its own synoptic metrical layout. Interesting, good take. Let’s hope we can trend it to more of a coastal then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/.../messy-friday... 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 58 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: GFS continues to relentlessly shout for a foot of snow. Kuchera. Wouldn't you enjay a foot of snow? Why use kuchera? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: Why use kuchera? Useless in a SWFE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Useless in a SWFE. Right at the transition zone it'll be decent, but in the all snow area - garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Useless in a SWFE. Precisely my point which I mentioned to George in the middle of the night a few days ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I can certainly understand the reticence there ... if for no other reason, seasonal trend to bang butts within an inch of sanity just before beginning the butt banging.... heh But this is maybe the first event this entire cold season that featured a major polar high drapery sitting over top like that. I mean, already there ... prior to this baroclinic bowing back N beginning at 72 hours... It's not like moving in as the high is moving in(out) and we're dealing with races. Unless that changes appreciably in future guidance - which can ... yup - for now, we are not driving a primary to NY state with that +PP/BL resistance in place.. And it's dense air - it's in the single digits in Watertown NY (GFS/Euro) next Friday at 12z ? Mm... hope... this is not going west of the Hudson. Physically can't do that ... to mention, the confluence is there anyway. If for some reason in hades all that and that high suddenly correct tremendously well ...okay - not much we can do about that. Anyway, the actual cyclogen mechanics are weak in this. But the BL resistance is very high. So that primary dying and the quasi Miller B translation is really just response to not being able to move a weaker circulation through the dense cold air. It's correct relative to its own synoptic metrical layout. Yea, gotta watch for full-on Miller B. I justed noted in my blog that Euro hinted at that, but just something to keep an eye on for now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Right at the transition zone it'll be decent, but in the all snow area - garbage. Yea, it will overdo the ratios to the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, it will overdo the ratios to the north. Pulling for you to jackpot over the rest of the local area down south. SWFE are your bread and butter, you've got climo on your side in this look. That area of N.MA/S.VT/S.NH seems to like to max out on SW wind aloft pumping WAA over top the colder southern extremity of the dense air lodged at the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Wonder why Ray stopped posting Narcan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/.../messy-friday... I like this preliminary consideration. And, I have the weekend off so I wouldn’t have to drive in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Gfs jumped north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gfs jumped north. Great hit for many Enjoy while my shitty area loses again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Great hit for many Enjoy while my shitty area loses again Aren’t you already ahead of average for the date or even at average for the season for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Great hit for many Enjoy while my shitty area loses again I’m trying to remember did you guys get a decent hit at all this winter? Was there like 7 inches with the grand blizzard? Maybe I should know this but I live kinda far from NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Great hit for many Enjoy while my shitty area loses again This one is good for us in SNE, but the next one on the 28th your area has a shot too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2022 Author Share Posted February 21, 2022 Wouldn’t call it a jump myself. In any case it looks like the band between the pike and route 2 would get a lot of snow in a short period of time. IP CT/RI 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Wonder why Ray stopped posting Narcan I'm still on ensembles at day 5. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 15 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: I’m trying to remember did you guys get a decent hit at all this winter? Was there like 7 inches with the grand blizzard? Maybe I should know this but I live kinda far from NYC I got a foot in late January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 16 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Aren’t you already ahead of average for the date or even at average for the season for NYC? I'm at 22 Close I'm greedy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm at 22 Close I'm greedy That’s not abysmal for NYC. Some years NYC gets screwed, what with with the urban island challenge on it. Central Park is where it’s at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Canadian looks good. Shifted south a bit with the low, widespread 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Just a quick note....unless we some significant commitment towards faster redevelopment so that this is more of a Miller B, I would take some of these OP runs that are going try to drop over a foot with a big grain of salt. 12z EURO tried to do this. Pretty good rule of thumb is that you need the conveyor belt mechanics of closed mid level lows to the east in order to achieve that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Definitely a bigger thump down here on the cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 As a side note, Friday morning commute looks like it could be absolute dog shit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: As a side note, Friday morning commute looks like it could be absolute dog shit Yea, almost pulling for the pike region since a foot here and 4" in Boston probably means I'd need to burn a sick day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just a quick note....unless we some significant commitment towards faster redevelopment so that this is more of a Miller B, I would take some of these OP runs that are going try to drop over a foot with a big grain of salt. 12z EURO tried to do this. Pretty good rule of thumb is that you need the conveyor belt mechanics of closed mid level lows to the east in order to achieve that. Yeah my earlier thoughts of someone possibly getting 18 is a long shot. The kuchera maps would show more but like you guys were saying earlier with the mid levels not being great those aren’t the way to go. The Canadian looked a little more aggressive with the secondary redevelopment which is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Even if this doesn’t turn into a full blown Miller B, the models aren’t really showing much of a dry slot. A dry slot shutting off the precip early would lead to lower snow totals like some of the earlier Euro runs that maxed out at 6-7 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 29 minutes ago, George001 said: Even if this doesn’t turn into a full blown Miller B, the models aren’t really showing much of a dry slot. A dry slot shutting off the precip early would lead to lower snow totals like some of the earlier Euro runs that maxed out at 6-7 inches. Who cares what models show....unless the coastal closes off through H7, the precip will shut off relatively quickly. I don't need models to tell me the sun will be up by 7. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now