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Winter storm for the 25th of February is imminent.


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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like you have been telling me that all winter, then a day or two later, its pictures of Bryce sledding off of your roof, while I measure my sand.

I said where the euro is, not where it will go. LOL. 

I see nothing wrong where you are currently. My temps will get borderline for a few hours so no jack here by any stretch. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I said where the euro is, not where it will go. LOL. 

I see nothing wrong where you are currently. My temps will get borderline for a few hours so no jack here by any stretch. 

I honestly am not sure where Ray would rather be right now for this event....I would definitely trade the pike region for NH border region in this. Does it mean NH border will jackpot? No, that could happen 20 miles north or 20 miles south, we don't know yet, but they are the most locked-in for warning snows out of any spot. I could still taint enough to only get 4-6" whereas that isn't going to happen up there and a tick south doesn't take them out of 8-10" amounts whereas it might take CON out of them. Ray's area probably has the most wiggle room in both directions.

Jackpots aren't easy to get...so nobody should ever expect them. But being in a relatively "Stress-free" zone for solid warning snows is about as good as you can expect 48 hours before an overrunning event.

 

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Here is why that area in interior NE MA and adjacent SNH could do very well. Notice the low level temp gradient near Ray.

 

 

image.png.8a95f74f312bb20e4f8327069b7b472f.png

 

 

Now look at those 850 winds out of the east and north of the 850 front. That's kind of what Will and Chris were saying. There is also still weak WAA at 850, so you have a mechanism for some lift. That could be a nice spot with the combo of a CF and that cold, erly flow at 850.

 

image.png.b9f7e8372ebd01626b64c703ffa68403.png

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I honestly am not sure where Ray would rather be right now for this event....I would definitely trade the pike region for NH border region in this. Does it mean NH border will jackpot? No, that could happen 20 miles north or 20 miles south, we don't know yet, but they are the most locked-in for warning snows out of any spot. I could still taint enough to only get 4-6" whereas that isn't going to happen up there and a tick south doesn't take them out of 8-10" amounts whereas it might take CON out of them. Ray's area probably has the most wiggle room in both directions.

Jackpots aren't easy to get...so nobody should ever expect them. But being in a relatively "Stress-free" zone for solid warning snows is about as good as you can expect 48 hours before an overrunning event.

 

Absolutely. But Ray will respond "easy for us to say.."  :lol: 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I honestly am not sure where Ray would rather be right now for this event....I would definitely trade the pike region for NH border region in this. Does it mean NH border will jackpot? No, that could happen 20 miles north or 20 miles south, we don't know yet, but they are the most locked-in for warning snows out of any spot. I could still taint enough to only get 4-6" whereas that isn't going to happen up there and a tick south doesn't take them out of 8-10" amounts whereas it might take CON out of them. Ray's area probably has the most wiggle room in both directions.

Jackpots aren't easy to get...so nobody should ever expect them. But being in a relatively "Stress-free" zone for solid warning snows is about as good as you can expect 48 hours before an overrunning event.

 

Jack's be jackin

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I honestly am not sure where Ray would rather be right now for this event....I would definitely trade the pike region for NH border region in this. Does it mean NH border will jackpot? No, that could happen 20 miles north or 20 miles south, we don't know yet, but they are the most locked-in for warning snows out of any spot. I could still taint enough to only get 4-6" whereas that isn't going to happen up there and a tick south doesn't take them out of 8-10" amounts whereas it might take CON out of them. Ray's area probably has the most wiggle room in both directions.

Jackpots aren't easy to get...so nobody should ever expect them. But being in a relatively "Stress-free" zone for solid warning snows is about as good as you can expect 48 hours before an overrunning event.

 

 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Here is why that area in interior NE MA and adjacent SNH could do very well. Notice the low level temp gradient near Ray.

 

 

image.png.8a95f74f312bb20e4f8327069b7b472f.png

 

 

Now look at those 850 winds out of the east and north of the 850 front. That's kind of what Will and Chris were saying. There is also still weak WAA at 850, so you have a mechanism for some lift. That could be a nice spot with the combo of a CF and that cold, erly flow at 850.

 

image.png.b9f7e8372ebd01626b64c703ffa68403.png

I'm just commenting off of the cuff as the runs come out. Partially sarcastic. I don't study the runs in depth unless its a really epic event, or I am actually issuing a forecast, so take some of these comments with a grain of salt. What a really feel is communicated via blog posts. 

I do really like that 2m temp map, though...stuff I will look at tmw.

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

You guessing you get 11 or guessing Narcan cuz Ray's Narcan says 16

for my area wow, I was guessing it had me at 11, I'm not going that high, I'd say ceiling is 10 here, but this winter is full of suprises, I am close enough to consider the pike region I guess, like maybe 20 miles away

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