RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: How about other regions? Congrats on 8-10”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 About what time does the snow end in the Pioneer Valley area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well it certainly hasn’t been my best winter in guessing trends. It still could tick north, but man....the trend of this winter just won't be denied. Just wants to target the same places, over, and over, and over again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Congrats on 8-10”. APATT.. Tough to get a gauge for other areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said: That’s a large smudge of heavy snow on the map Think that's 10 to 1 so areas that sleet will have less and the EURO showed sleet making it north. U have the Kutchera? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lot of confluence up north....difficult to trend it hard north when you have a 1040 high sitting over Ottawa the night before. It's not like one of those SWFE's where the high is trying to hold on in Nova Scotia as the storm gets going. Yeah never thought nam into SNe practically, but figured a tick here or there north. Not in opposite direction lol. Still some time left, but if there is a tick north left, at least we have some wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 That's even a bit south of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, bobbutts said: About what time does the snow end in the Pioneer Valley area? Anything meaningful should be done by mid to late afternoon Friday there....might be some lingering light snows into evening but the meat of the event is over after 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It still could tick north, but man....the trend of this winter just won't be denied. Just wants to target the same places, over, and over, and over again. I’d argue you would probably be jack on euro or close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah never thought nam into SNe practically, but figured a tick here or there north. Not in opposite direction lol. Still some time left, but if there is a tick north left, at least we have some wiggle room. Yes....I expect a little nudge back north too.....I'd be surprised if the storm verified as cold as the 12z Euro....but it's good to see a south tick to give some wiggle room for when that north nudge happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I’d argue you would probably be jack on euro or close to it. I didn't look at the mid levels. I know the best is usually N of heaviest QPF in a deformation zone....not sure this would be true here if the mid levels aren't mature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: APATT.. Tough to get a gauge for other areas You sleet around lunchtime but the best stuff already dropped all snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I’d argue you would probably be jack on euro or close to it. There's also a nice ~600mb sig that is up into upstate NY over to central/northern VT and into Phin/Alex land....I bet there will be a band up there too that isn't really visible on the QPF maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I don't think there will be any major changes at this point. Should be good storm for just about the entire region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You sleet around lunchtime but the best stuff already dropped all snow there. Tickle down another inch or two late day/ evening of fluff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's also a nice ~600mb sig that is up into upstate NY over to central/northern VT and into Phin/Alex land....I bet there will be a band up there too that isn't really visible on the QPF maps. I think it is there in the QPF maps.... just not as pronounced. If it's fluffing definitely signs of a rotting band from like 'Dacks through MPV over to LEW. But I bet the band might be even a bit north to BTV-MVL-BML. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: There's also a nice ~600mb sig that is up into upstate NY over to central/northern VT and into Phin/Alex land....I bet there will be a band up there too that isn't really visible on the QPF maps. Yeah I haven’t looked hard up there, but that’s definitely the case I think. I expect to see pics of the Stowe Gondola shrouded in dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's also a nice ~600mb sig that is up into upstate NY over to central/northern VT and into Phin/Alex land....I bet there will be a band up there too that isn't really visible on the QPF maps. I haven't had a chance to look at much the past few days, but that hang back 6hr QPF on the northern edge is usually a good indicator of the mid level goodies and that's been there for a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 If anyone has the Kutchera to let me know how south coast CT has that would be great Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 But to Wills point, there is a lot of confluence up there. Probably a bit more than what we are used to in the classic SWFE ‘s. So that should get some respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I haven’t looked hard up there, but that’s definitely the case I think. I expect to see pics of the Stowe Gondola shrouded in dendrites. Probably will see that pic regardless of if it's 2-3" or 7-9" . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think there will be any major changes at this point. Should be good storm for just about the entire region. Enjoy the day off, it’s coming after those 12s runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lot of confluence up north....difficult to trend it hard north when you have a 1040 high sitting over Ottawa the night before. It's not like one of those SWFE's where the high is trying to hold on in Nova Scotia as the storm gets going. Right - been a mantra of mine over some odd 20 pages in this thread: There's a limit in how far N this thing could trend in the runs. Those N solution - NAM a separate matter ...hold on for a minute - were really pressed against the proverbial wall and could only come S. That was proven true when every next cycle subsequent of a N solution, halted or went the other direction. I guess some 'wiper blade' aspect but ... you know - the whole needle threading track oscillation noise. The way around that N limitation would have/need to be a change in the (bold abv) scaffolding. But that's not happened yet, nor is there very much room in the hemispheric mode anchoring to assume any trend gets under way. If anything, this may come S even more - but cross the bridge. The NAM? That idiot was just handling the total synoptic manifold differently, including that larger mechanical exertion - enough to allow it's solution. But like you said all morning, it's the only run really doing that and beside... Man, the NAM has a W-N bias at time ranges beyond 48 hours. It's funny - it's almost like it's gotta bias NW so bad that it re-engineers the circulation mode to get to it's obsession LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: I haven't had a chance to look at much the past few days, but that hang back 6hr QPF on the northern edge is usually a good indicator of the mid level goodies and that's been there for a couple of days. Looks like the lift is way up there... like 400-600mb at MPV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Well, I am a bit surprised. Not really in the mood for a moderate storm (6"). I thought I was golden for 8-12 but that is fading. I know some have been anticipating a north couple of ticks, but who's to say the south trend is over? At this point, when the pack is mostly gone, 6" is just a pita. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, powderfreak said: Looks like the lift is way up there... like 400-600mb at MPV. I probably wouldn't be using the NAM for that right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: But to Wills point, there is a lot of confluence up there. Probably a bit more than what we are used to in the classic SWFE ‘s. So that should get some respect. Primary has trended a bit weaker as well so that aids in the further south tracks too, Its about 4-5mb less then when you had it getting further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, dendrite said: I probably wouldn't be using the NAM for that right now. lol it was just the best graphic for it. The GFS wasn't much different. DGZ on the lower end up the best omega in the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Think that's 10 to 1 so areas that sleet will have less and the EURO showed sleet making it north. U have the Kutchera? Not for the Euro! I just have access to the 10:1. i use pivotal it is my favorite layout 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How about other regions? Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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