CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The NAM still doesn’t have much of any plain rain here. It’s a bit of snow to a sleet fest It would be a little -RA which is what I still expect for you and I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 You can just sense the denial and anxiety.. People tossed the Nam yesterday like the Ukie today. The Nam was designed for warm layers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You can just sense the denial and anxiety.. People tossed the Nam yesterday like the Ukie today. The Nam was designed for warm layers I think you missed the 20 posts explaining the NAM issue here. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah the biggest issue is snow total vs sleet cutting that down where I'm sitting. I gather that folks would rather not the sleet... lol. Anyway, I'm more into this for the general impact to society, much less the general impact to the delicate sensibilities of people trying to get to some dimension of nostalgic d-drip psyche for the modeling journery before it even happens. I mean, sometimes I wonder if that journey is more important than the actual storm itself. This engagement has evolved into something ( I wonder ) that is a part of that "60 Minutes" psychotropic stimulation addiction shit they covered as a problem to humanity by modern technology. But that'd digressing... I'm probably not really qualified to get too embedded in snow vs IP... In principle this is a "needle thread" system. And the system is going to run along the "rail-system" where the run lays the track. And the ptypes are 'edgy' I'll tell you what I have a dependency on psychotropic stimulation that does not go away if I abstain from the meds for decades of time! It is ALWAYS worse to not take them than it is to take them. ADHD AND Autism!!!! I went a couple decades without the meds and it was the worst 20 years of my life. Erratic behavior. I didn't want to chime in but people keep bringing it up, whether or not it was to do with me LOL! In any case, I can easily believe that 12z will verify a northerly trend, but it is not impossible it will be a southerly one and models will sink down to assimilate to the GFS. Over the years I have seen UK be quite reasonable and close to reality of what transpires, but I don't have the training to be able to know the reasons why it might be getting discounted heavily by some people right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think you missed the 20 posts explaining the NAM issue here. There is no issue. It’s had the nw vort track for two days now while everything else didn’t. And now they are moving towards it. Is it wrong? Maybe. Maybe not . There’s a hell of a lot of nervous people from Ray south . That is very true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: There is no issue. It’s had the nw vort track for two days now while everything else didn’t. And now they are moving towards it. Is it wrong? Maybe. Maybe not . There’s a hell of a lot of nervous people from Ray south . That is very true Has the NAM been consistent with this event? Not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Since everyone wants to talk about dog poo jv models… nice bump south on the icon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 Using the old NAM FOUS metrics from years ago ... BOS 48048969471 07926 240917 42999399 54067989425 02209 090812 48000004 Looks just about split between snow and IP at Logan. That first 48 ( at 48 hours there ) is QPF in inches, falling through 980 = -1C, 900 = -7C, 800 = -1C That -1C at 800 does argue for an elevated warm layer, but as we've collectively noted...the NAM is a bit of a NW outlier... (*the model typically is at this range*) ... These #'s don't evince temperatures above the 800 mb sigma. The second line is .67" QPF in isothermal to 800, where that is +4C(39ishF) ... Probably that is toasting aggies at that temperature. Considering that leading up to the point in time ( 54 hours) there may have been a couple hours where it was at or warmer than this just above that 800 mb level. So that is likely IP ...and a goodly dose of it at that. Looking at ALB's numbers ...they stay below 0C at all sigma levels on their grid... so... the classic (technique+experience with synoptic features in play) / 2 connotes snow along Rt 2... with and IP intrusion to the Pike or just N of that latitude. By the way, this is mostly a latitude oriented affair when it comes to that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Since everyone wants to talk about dog poo jv models… nice bump south on the icon Reggie went south too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You can just sense the denial and anxiety.. People tossed the Nam yesterday like the Ukie today. The Nam was designed for warm layers I mean, the UK is still like 10" here...I have no reason to impugn it out of bias, or some neurotic tendency...I'm simply confident that its too cold in the mid levels. If others disagree, fine.....but its pretty childish to claim someone has a psychological disorder because they disagree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some of the north ticks are the result of the shortwave moving north. Euro is one of them. We are just going to forget that the 18z/6z euro has been doing that all winter? If 12z euro goes north and warm then ok it’s a real tic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Reggie went south too. Tip smashing his laptop like it is an old Fox Hall cafeteria tray 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 The Reggie sucks, Has and continues too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: The Reggie sucks. And blows. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: The Reggie sucks. Tip? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: We are just going to forget that the 18z/6z euro has been doing that all winter? If 12z euro goes north and warm then ok it’s a real tic. I know, which is why I mentioned waiting for the 12z to adjust amounts. Just noting some of the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Reggie is a frozen nightmare down here....Would be fun to experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 ARW2 is a nice thump. Colder than the NAM for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I know, which is why I mentioned waiting for the 12z to adjust amounts. Just noting some of the trends. Careful, The snow police will be coming for you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I know, which is why I mentioned waiting for the 12z to adjust amounts. Just noting some of the trends. Ok I missed that. Let’s see what gfs and euro do at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not sure I see why the UKMET is presumptively wrong, but okay.. Seems a bit impulsive. This event's coverage this week has been rather revealing when it comes to load-balancing group pessimism vs optimism. The group tends to merely register a colder appealed cycle, but look out! We're making failure declaratives at the slightest giga motion of noise - that cannot be avoided at 72 hours lead btw. The hyper focus to do so makes autistic savantism look like ADHD. Lol - Anyway, I still think the QPF is handling well. From the get go, some 5+ days, pretty remarkable synoptic consistency. There have been two distinct synoptic metrics in all guidance that really support QP going above the 'SWFE climotology' QPF suggestion. -- deep latitude +PWAT air source -- ancillary jet mechanics with superb lateral exit jet between 500 and 300 mb overarching N of the baroclinic wall/wave as it ripples underneath. The 500 mb is between this latter feature, and that upper air accelerating wind field. This should aid in propelling UVM slots and ( I believe ) we may see this punch into a deeper GZ than people think - possibly even as a modest behavior bust. ...this latter aspect is experimental... just sayn'. That's an extreme jet construct though. ...I suppose we should add fact that the idiosyncrasies of this set up has a polar high uniquely situated to really maximize BL resistance. This will have a compressed thermal packing closer to the boundary... Dry sleet affair where that happens. Also, I get the whole warm tongue stuff with a 10000 foot sleet column routine, okay - but this won't likely produce that kind of elevated layer. It doesn't have that kind of mechanical thrust between 850 and 700 to do so. This is unique in a sense ...it is maximizing QPF mechanics by accentuated lift of a higher PWAT air, out of less WAA above 1300 meters. This is the way it has looked to me for days. I'm pretty set on NWS snow chart - I like what they've got. 8-12" along Rt 2 ...with a smear down to Brian... and points N (ratio inflation notwithstanding). 6-8" along the Pike, increasing sleet contamination S. 4-6" with sleet and ZR ~ HFD - PVD ... 1-4" S. Shore with ZR/IP. Cape as usual will require an intervention by a team of specialists seems to me that overnight and tomorrow morning the mesos will start to narrow in on where the 1-2"/hour band sets up. I think you and others mentioned steep upglide that would help ratios and snow growth. GYX is going for 12:1. I've seen discussion of a very deep snowgrowth zone. Could be a bit higher in that band I would imagine, at least for a bit. So the question is where does that set up. It could right up here in the KCON area, but I worry it might be a tad south. That being said, this is a swfe so north ticks are more likely than south ticks, and messenger ticks are more important in coastal storms, not swfe. I feel confident for 8-10 here, but I think 12 is a decent possibility...and I think someone sees 12-15 in lollies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mean, the UK is still like 10" here...I have no reason to impugn it out of bias, or some neurotic tendency...I'm simply confident that its too cold in the mid levels. If others disagree, fine.....but its pretty childish to claim someone has a psychological disorder because they disagree with you. Who is saying you have disorders? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: ARW2 is a nice thump. Colder than the NAM for sure. All of those mesos are colder than the NAM....the NSSL one is too and so is the FV3....though I am tossing the FV3 until they figure it out. It's been too cold this winter....its even a lot colder than NSSL and ARW mesos. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I am amazed how every storm how people seem to forget that models tend to have have runs where they trend south about 3 days before storm, trend north about 2 days before, then South about 18 hours later with a last tick north. It could all be in my head but it has seemed to happen every storm for a few years now. With this trend north this morning, we should see a bump south again in the 0Z or 6Z runs overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Who is saying you have disorders? Folks claiming the UK is being tossed because people are neurotic. Not you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, klw said: I am amazed how every storm how people seem to forget that models tend to have have runs where they trend south about 3 days before storm, trend north about 2 days before, then South about 18 hours later with a last tick north. It could all be in my head but it has seemed to happen every storm for a few years now. With this trend north this morning, we should see a bump south again in the 0Z or 6Z runs overnight. in coastals yes but in swfe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: All of those mesos are colder than the NAM....the NSSL one is too and so is the FV3....though I am tossing the FV3 until they figure it out. It's been too cold this winter....its even a lot colder than NSSL and ARW mesos. Isn’t the NAM supposed to get replaced by the FV3? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 24 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Tip? Oh, you must be referring to that comment I snarked last night. I meant that in deference to that particular run, ...as in, the RGEM's rendition sucked. The model may in fact suck, in general. But I'm not I don't use it? I get the sense for those that do, and comment on it... that it may have patterns it does better in. This season may not have featured very many of those - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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