dryslot Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’ll wait until the real models roll out before making any concrete observations The "Real" models rolled at 06z, The Euro was warmer, Just the facts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: The "Real" models rolled at 06z, The Euro was warmer, Just the facts. Off hour runs aren't the real models 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, dryslot said: The "Real" models rolled at 06z, The Euro was warmer, Just the facts. Enjoy the snow, it’s the only snow you got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, Winter Wizard said: The NAM is still a bit of an outlier, but is an entirely plausible scenario where the primary low chugs way ahead into NY state while any secondary low develops far too late to be meaningful. All kidding aside, I use to dump all over it until the Feb 4th event, It did the same thing its doing here and it ended up being right, Now maybe it ends up wrong this time, But when it sniffs a warm layer, It usually is pretty good with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I don't really weigh the nam a lot, but I think Dryslot said it, and we all mentioned this ad nauseum with these. They tick north final 72 hours or so. Not sure why some are getting defensive. This is just how they work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I’m going to run out and buy a hard hat if the NAM verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 NAM is still synoptically very different from other guidance...it is tracking that vortmax NORTH of Lake Ontario....nevermind over it. If it is wrong with that, then it's going to bust too warm. It's not "Sniffing out a warm layer" like we sometimes see in these events when they all agree on the synoptics. The NAM is literally about 75-100 miles north of other guidance on the vort track and that makes a huge difference. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM is still synoptically very different from other guidance...it is tracking that vortmax NORTH of Lake Ontario....nevermind over it. If it is wrong with that, then it's going to bust too warm. It's not "Sniffing out a warm layer" like we sometimes see in these events when they all agree on the synoptics. The NAM is literally about 75-100 miles north of other guidance on the vort track and that makes a huge difference. Will be interesting and important to see ALL of the 12z results. They will need to be taken seriously but with our luck they'll come in with the same disagreements again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 So about that south and colder 12z NAM shift? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, IowaStorm05 said: Will be interesting and important to see ALL of the 12z results. They will need to be taken seriously but with our luck they'll come in with the same disagreements again. I expect some northward ticks (I've been saying it for days actually)....but there's a difference in mere northward ticks and the 12z NAM. The question is does the NAM start coming back to other guidance...which I think it probably does. But maybe it scores a synoptic coup too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: All kidding aside, I use to dump all over it until the Feb 4th event, It did the same thing its doing here and it ended up being right, Now maybe it ends up wrong this time, But when it sniffs a warm layer, It usually is pretty good with it. It’s not a warm layer, see wills post. It is literally completely different from other guidance. Toss it to the moon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s not a warm layer, see wills post. It is literally completely different from other guidance. Toss it to the moon I don't think you can toss it...other guidance may continue to shift north with the vort track too....but there's no reason to hug the NAM either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So about that south and colder 12z NAM shift? My SOUL depends on it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Damn Luke you guys alright? Pics? Yea we’re good. I won’t clog the thread up on this anymore so I’ll post some in banter later. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM is still synoptically very different from other guidance...it is tracking that vortmax NORTH of Lake Ontario....nevermind over it. If it is wrong with that, then it's going to bust too warm. It's not "Sniffing out a warm layer" like we sometimes see in these events when they all agree on the synoptics. The NAM is literally about 75-100 miles north of other guidance on the vort track and that makes a huge difference. The Nam only has 0.7" of liquid down here, the axis of heavy precip is well to the north....probably missing something and will suddenly make a huge correction southward. Both Nams down here are straight sleet, little to no snowfall and still fairly cold despite being so far north....So even in this case, we are still mostly frozen around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Some of the north ticks are the result of the shortwave moving north. Euro is one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 29 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s a defense mechanism. It’s also why some for are clinging to the NAM. Hedge the warm solution to temper expectations yeah... yeah I know. Stopped short at venturing why - it's about as eye-rolling at the reader's side, as it is poking the hornet's nest to impugn the writer of that voice - best to just skip it, because it's never ended well. I mean no one since the beginning of on-line weather "forumdium" has ever said, "gee, you're right - I'm being flawed logical in order to ameliorate my neurotic agenda. I'll cease from such tact.. " Uuuusually doesn't end well in the exchange. One is just not likely to be influenced, or corrigibly gathered in once they are triggered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So about that south and colder 12z NAM shift? There was some southward movement of marginal snows, but it put out a very irregular hodgepodge of icy WX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Do we really need to question why the Ukie is tossed? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Dryslot Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Skimming through here makes it sound like storm cancel south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 PVD getting more snow than MHT and by a lot? Come on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 The NAM still doesn’t have much of any plain rain here. It’s a bit of snow to a sleet fest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Do we really need to question why the Ukie is tossed? It looked similar to the latest GFS! The only reason you could totally toss it is on account of its similarity to GFS being incompetent randomness of coincidentally being "On to" whatever the GFS is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: The Nam only has 0.7" of liquid down here, the axis of heavy precip is well to the north....probably missing something and will suddenly make a huge correction southward. Both Nams down here are straight sleet, little to no snowfall and still fairly cold despite being so far north....So even in this case, we are still mostly frozen around here There will definitely be way less QPF if the vort is tracking into the St. Lawrence valley up north or northeast of Ontario. The Euro shifted north at 06z too....it's not like the 12z NAM but it tracked it over like southern Lake Ontario up toward Tug hill instead of BUF to ALB like the 00z run did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nam is worse But the UK is right. Got it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some of the north ticks are the result of the shortwave moving north. Euro is one of them. Yeah the biggest issue is snow total vs sleet cutting that down from where I'm sitting. I gather that folks would rather not the sleet... lol. Anyway, I'm more into this for the general impact to society, much less the general impact to the delicate sensibilities of people trying to get to some dimension of nostalgic d-drip psyche for the modeling journey before it even happens. I mean, sometimes I wonder if that journey is more important than the actual storm itself. This engagement has evolved into something ( I wonder ) that is a part of that "60 Minutes" psychotropic stimulation addiction shit they covered as a problem to humanity by modern technology. But that'd be digressing... I'm probably not really qualified to get too embedded in snow vs IP... In principle this is a "needle thread" system. And the system is going to run along the "rail-system" where the run lays the tracks - if the larger synoptic manifold change < 72 hour out..that's more an indictment of modeling tech. And the ptypes are 'edgy' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Stein posted this (taken from NWS) earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, CT Valley Dryslot said: Skimming through here makes it sound like storm cancel south of the Pike. It’s looking like 4-8” N CT some of that includes sleet and and then a flip back to snow late day with the IVT. Should the NAM verify.. and it very well might. It’s more like 4-5 of snow and then a lot of zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Stein posted this (taken from NWS) earlier NOAA must be neurotic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: But the UK is right. Got it. Ants snow goggles that he borrowed from Tblizz are fogged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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