Winter storm for the 25th of February is imminent.

[LovewellHemp]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

When you smell the taint is when you get crushed with those 2 per hour unstable rates. Helluva winter storm incoming 

Is the extreme S coast expected to see any of this? I'm not sure how quickly to expect a flip to rain

[dryslot]

I don't place much stock in the HRRR until 24 hrs out, So 0z tonight we will see where its at.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I don't place much stock in the HRRR until 24 hrs out, So 0z tonight we will see where its at.

It’s been on fire from 24-48 lately.  Been watching very closely this winter. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Hrrr shows 6-8” for southern ct bit I bet that’s like 4-6” with an inch of sleet on top.,

[ORH_wxman]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR is most certainly warmer than 6z.

It would have been almost impossible for it not to be...it was so cold at 06z.

[IowaStorm05]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reckless? It’s the reality. Tossed. 

You're as cold as ice! You're willing to sacrifice our love! 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya warmer but still a great  thump.  NAM on an island still. 

Well it's very hard to compare during the meat as it was beyond its range. What we can see is during the heaviest rates of sleet that BL is extremely thin. Like previous storms this year would not surprise me if during heavy omega people flip back to heavy snow until rates lighten up. Man this still looks pretty impactful all across the state. Me on the road to Columbia at 6AM for my loss. I think NCT border Kev to NW CT Union Woodstock could hit 8 to 10 as it stands today. 6 to 8 west to east Middletown North. 4 to 6 rest of the state. Good times

[klw]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. I pick her up from my MILs every Tuesday night. Got off 84, came around the corner (dark, pouring rain) and thought I was dreaming when I saw something come across the road so I pumped the brakes and braced for impact. Luckily I was going about 30mph and probably hit it at 15mph maybe. Could have been worse.

Eversource expects to have power restored to the remaining 400,000 customers who are in the dark from this tree fall no later than Monday.

 

Glad both of you are okay.

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

When you smell the taint is when you get crushed with those 2 per hour unstable rates. Helluva winter storm incoming 

Warm layer there is kind of weak sauce...and lower than the typical 750-800 zone you'd normally see it. Something to watch if we're not going to see that really distinct warm layer in the 750 zone.

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It’s been on fire from 24-48 lately.  Been watching very closely this winter. 

Yes sir me as well

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Well it's very hard to compare during the meat as it was beyond its range. What we can see is during the heaviest rates of sleet that BL is extremely thin. Like previous storms this year would not surprise me if during heavy omega people flip back to heavy snow until rates lighten up. Man this still looks pretty impactful all across the state. Me on the road to Columbia at 6AM for my loss. I think NCT border Kev to NW CT Union Woodstock could hit 8 to 10 as it stands today. 6 to 8 west to east Middletown North. 4 to 6 rest of the state. Good times

 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Warm layer there is kind of weak sauce...and lower than the typical 750-800 zone you'd normally see it. Something to watch if we're not going to see that really distinct warm layer in the 750 zone.

Yes sir we are on the same page

[ineedsnow]

just saw the 6z Euro thats kind of ugly for CT

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

just saw the 6z Euro thats kind of ugly for CT

Seems like we have 2 camps.... Some models are more Snow for southern new england, others are more sleet and ice. Hars to tell at this point. Can go either way. I did see the NWS circle most of the CT amd RI area with a note of uncertainty still in play.

[Typhoon Tip]

Not sure I see why the UKMET is presumptively wrong, but okay..   Seems a bit impulsive.  

This event's coverage this week has been rather revealing when it comes to load-balancing group pessimism vs optimism.  The group tends to merely register a colder appealed cycle, but look out!  We're making failure declaratives at the slightest giga motion of noise - that cannot be avoided at 72 hours lead btw.  The hyper focus to do so makes autistic savantism look like ADHD.   Lol -

Anyway, I still think the QPF is handling well.  From the get go, some 5+ days, pretty remarkable synoptic consistency. There have been two distinct synoptic metrics in all guidance that really support QP going above the 'SWFE climotology' QPF suggestion.

-- deep latitude +PWAT air source

-- ancillary jet mechanics with superb lateral exit jet between 500 and 300 mb overarching N of the baroclinic wall/wave as it ripples underneath.  The 500 mb is between this latter feature, and that upper air accelerating wind field.  This should aid in propelling UVM slots and ( I believe ) we may see this punch into a deeper GZ than people think - possibly even as a modest behavior bust.  ...this latter aspect is experimental... just sayn'.  That's an extreme jet construct though.  

...I suppose we should add fact that the idiosyncrasies of this set up has a polar high uniquely situated to really maximize BL resistance.  This will have a compressed thermal packing closer to the boundary...  Dry sleet affair where that happens. Also, I get the whole warm tongue stuff with a 10000 foot sleet column routine, okay - but this won't likely produce that kind of elevated layer.  It doesn't have that kind of mechanical thrust between 850 and 700 to do so.   This is unique in a sense ...it is maximizing QPF mechanics by accentuated lift of a higher PWAT air, out of less WAA above 1300 meters.  

This is the way it has looked to me for days.  I'm pretty set on NWS snow chart - I like what they've got. 

8-12" along Rt 2 ...with a smear down to Brian... and points N (ratio inflation notwithstanding). 

6-8" along the Pike, increasing sleet contamination S. 

4-6" with sleet and ZR ~ HFD - PVD ...

1-4" S. Shore with ZR/IP.  Cape as usual will require an intervention by a team of specialists

 

[tamarack]

58 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

6-8" is what I saw earlier.

We're in the 4-6" color though close to 6-8.  Maybe in the latter if we get ratios 15:1 or better, though being on the north fringe generally means crummy flake development and 8:1 sand.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure I see why the UKMET is presumptively wrong, but okay..   Seems a bit impulsive.  

This event's coverage this week has been rather revealing when it comes to load-balancing group pessimism vs optimism.  The group tends to merely register a colder appealed cycles, but look out!  We're making failure declaratives at the slightest giga motion of noise - that cannot be avoided at 72 hours lead btw.  The hyper focus to do so makes autistic savantism look like ADHD.   Lol -

Anyway, I still think the QPF is handling well.  From the get go, some 5+ days, pretty remarkable synoptic consistency. There have been two distinct synoptic metrics in all guidance that really support QP going above the 'SWFE climotology' QPF suggestion.

-- deep latitude +PWAT air source

-- ancillary jet mechanics with superb lateral exit jet between 500 and 300 mb overarching N of the baroclinic wall/wave as it ripples underneath.  The 500 mb is between this latter feature, and that upper air accelerating wind field.  This should aid in propelling UVM slots and ( I believe ) we may see this punch into a deeper GZ than people think - possibly even as a modest behavior bust.  ...this latter aspect is experimental... just sayn'.  That's an extreme jet construct though.  

...I suppose we should add fact that the idiosyncrasies of this set up has a polar high uniquely situated to really maximize BL resistance.  This will have a compress thermal packing closer to the boundary...Also, I get the whole warm tongue stuff with a 10000 foot sleet column routine, okay - but this won't likely produce that kind of elevated layer.  It doesn't have that kind of mechanical thrust between 850 and 700 to do so.   This is unique in a sense ...it is maximizing QPF mechanics by accentuated lift of a higher PWAT air, out of less WAA above 1300 meters.  

This is the way it has looked to me for days.  I'm pretty set on NWS snow chart - I like what they've got. 

8-12" along Rt 2 ...with a smear down to Brian... and points N (ratio inflation notwithstanding). 

6-8" along the Pike. 

4-6 with sleet and ZR ~ HFD - PVD ...

1-4 S. Shore with ZR/IP.  Cape needs team of specialists

 

It’s a defense mechanism. It’s also why some for are clinging to the NAM. 
 

Hedge the warm solution to temper expectations 

[dryslot]

12z NAM is going to be pretty icy in CT, That primary is holding on a bit longer too over near BUF.

[ineedsnow]

NAM looks like sleet to central NH

[IowaStorm05]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z NAM is going to be pretty icy in CT.

Yes I could tell pretty quickly it is a hodge podge of mixed precip with a completely irregular "Snow line"

This storm in general makes me nervous about my shift that starts mid day on Friday. 40 mile drive. They are pretty lenient about weather call outs for my totem pole spot, but on the other hand I have had health problems hamper my effeciency around there, and I don't have a whole lot of reciprocity bargaining chips to work with.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

NAM looks like sleet to central NH

The Nam is like a beagle hunting rabbits.

[ineedsnow]

ugly run for most of SNE

[dryslot]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

ugly run for most of SNE

No denying since the 06z runs other then the GFS, Models have ticked warmer whether some want to believe it or not.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dryslot said:

No denying since the 06z runs other then the GFS, Models have ticked warmer whether some want to believe it or not.

Some knew.

[IowaStorm05]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The Nam is like a beagle hunting rabbits.

It looks... Odd. It is like the blizzard where it was a hound dog chasing the bird off the shore of Virginia.

[Spanks45]

Either the Nam is completely wrong or it is on to something....hard to tell at this point. So we toss, for now.... 

[CoastalWx]

Ukie is a joke, it's not a defense mechanism, it makes no sense.

[MJO812]

Nam is worse 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

No denying since the 06z runs other then the GFS, Models have ticked warmer whether some want to believe it or not.

I’ll wait until the real models roll out before making any concrete observations.

We know you want the warm trend down here, you’ve been pimping the NAM for 2 days lol

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Some knew.

You did.

[Winter Wizard]

The NAM is still a bit of an outlier, but is an entirely plausible scenario where the primary low chugs way ahead into NY state while any secondary low develops far too late to be meaningful.