HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I totaled my car last night off exit 16 when a tree fell in front of me and I smashed into it head on. My life flashed before me with my daughter in the car…so I’m never driving in any inclement weather again, even in a windy rain lol. Seriously?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Euro made the move as expected. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: WTF seriously? Yea. I pick her up from my MILs every Tuesday night. Got off 84, came around the corner (dark, pouring rain) and thought I was dreaming when I saw something come across the road so I pumped the brakes and braced for impact. Luckily I was going about 30mph and probably hit it at 15mph maybe. Could have been worse. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I wonder if you guys will believe the nam when you get nam’d at 12z with 12-18” from kevin to ray, only to have 18z nam bring sleet to Randolph NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I totaled my car last night off exit 16 when a tree fell in front of me and I smashed into it head on. My life flashed before me with my daughter in the car…so I’m never driving in any inclement weather again, even in a windy rain lol. Holy ****!!! You and your daughter OK? I knew the winds were whipping, but geeze....Yeah, places to go in crappy road conditions are never worth it, who would have thought trees in last night's winds?!!? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Model guidance has been really consistent on over 1” of QPF for SNE in this. There’s going to be some meat in the pack after this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: I wonder if you guys will believe the nam when you get nam’d at 12z with 12-18” from kevin to ray, only to have 18z nam bring sleet to Randolph NH. It’s almost within its useful range. We should have a clearer picture by 18z on Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Glad you are ok Luke 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I totaled my car last night off exit 16 when a tree fell in front of me and I smashed into it head on. My life flashed before me with my daughter in the car…so I’m never driving in any inclement weather again, even in a windy rain lol. Wow man . Glad you and her are ok. And I know you loved that car . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. I pick her up from my MILs every Tuesday night. Got off 84, came around the corner (dark, pouring rain) and thought I was dreaming when I saw something come across the road so I pumped the brakes and braced for impact. Luckily I was going about 30mph and probably hit it at 15mph maybe. Could have been worse. Wow, That's real scary, Glad your ok. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, Spanks45 said: Holy ****!!! You and your daughter OK? I knew the winds were whipping, but geeze....Yeah, places to go in crappy road conditions are never worth it, who would have thought trees in last night's winds?!!? Yea, we’re good. The tow guy, funny enough, is a former arborist. When I mentioned all the storms probably weakening the trees, he said that’s not true and talked about some fungi that is weakening certain trees.I was still in shock a bit so I kinda spaced out, not exactly sure which trees and the type of fungi. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I’d go 4-8 to sleet here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: I wonder if you guys will believe the nam when you get nam’d at 12z with 12-18” from kevin to ray, only to have 18z nam bring sleet to Randolph NH. I don’t believe the NAM. The only way I believe it is if other guidance agrees with it which by definition means I’m not taking it seriously by itself. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if it comes a bit south/colder at 12z to come closer to other guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’d go 4-8 to sleet here That range is fairly locked in away from the water. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I wonder if you guys will believe the nam when you get nam’d at 12z with 12-18” from kevin to ray, only to have 18z nam bring sleet to Randolph NH. If anything NAM will bring the low over Hoth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I don’t believe the NAM. The only way I believe it is if other guidance agrees with it which by definition means I’m not taking it seriously by itself. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if it comes a bit south/colder at 12z to come closer to other guidance. Ya I fully expect it to come south, but probably jump back north a few more times before game time. I’m expecting a crazy nam run at some point that even gets Ant fired up. I could see that 6z euro verifying though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I think the 6z euro actually looks decent. It has a big swath of heavier QPF north of the pike which probably happens given the 850WF look and good forcing there. Would like to see that south before we sleet, but a good thump regardless. I still expect a chunk of sleet and maybe even a touch of light rain or drizzle before maybe another inch of snow to end it. Perhaps a little more if we briefly CJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If anything NAM will bring the low over Hoth. That’s coming at 18z after 12z jacks Kevin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: I think the 6z euro actually looks decent. It has a big swath of heavier QPF north of the pike which probably happens given the 850WF look and good forcing there. Would like to see that south before we sleet, but a good thump regardless. I still expect a chunk of sleet and maybe even a touch of light rain or drizzle before maybe another inch of snow to end it. Perhaps a little more if we briefly CJ. Ya I see that as a potential verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’d go 4-8 to sleet here Yeah it’s going to be hard not to get 4” even if it’s like 70-80% sleet for you. Getting over an inch of QPF is a good slug….2” of snow plus like 0.80” worth of sleet at 2 to 1 (and that may be conservative…could be 3 to 1 sleet ratios in this given the very cold layers below 800mb) gets you there already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 The NWS point and click disaster has 5"-11" for my area. lol...cut that in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: That’s coming at 18z after 12z jacks Kevin. I think 6-8” of snow/ sleet here in round 1 .. and then the IVT Friday night could possibly drop 1-3” of fluff for everyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I think 6-8” of snow/ sleet here in round 1 .. and then the IVT Friday night could possibly drop 1-3” of fluff for everyone Wow you bailed on the NAM quickly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think 6-8” of snow/ sleet here in round 1 .. and then the IVT Friday night could possibly drop 1-3” of fluff for everyone Lol that’s not the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Wow you bailed on the NAM quickly. ??? If half of round 1 is 3-4” of sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’d go 4-8 to sleet here That’s doable. Part of the issue is how this comes in. Sometimes it’s like a 2-3hr burst and then gets showery. That will get you the lower end. If it comes in like a wall and really regenerates north of the dry slot because of the 850 WF then higher end of range is possible. That I don’t know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I guess it was a couple tics once i looked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Dryslot Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: I guess it was a couple tics once i looked. Classic trowel to snizzle storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: ??? If half of round 1 is 3-4” of sleet? 3-4” of sleet from half of round 1 QPF? That would be like 6 or 7 to 1 ratios just on sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 That's not happening, You don't get sleet ratios that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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