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Winter storm for the 25th of February is imminent.


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Just now, CoastalWx said:

 

WTF seriously?

Yea. I pick her up from my MILs every Tuesday night. Got off 84, came around the corner (dark, pouring rain) and thought I was dreaming when I saw something come across the road so I pumped the brakes and braced for impact. Luckily I was going about 30mph and probably hit it at 15mph maybe. Could have been worse.

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I totaled my car last night off exit 16 when a tree fell in front of me and I smashed into it head on. My life flashed before me with my daughter in the car…so I’m never driving in any inclement weather again, even in a windy rain lol. 

Holy ****!!! You and your daughter OK? I knew the winds were whipping, but geeze....Yeah, places to go in crappy road conditions are never worth it, who would have thought trees in last night's winds?!!?

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8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I totaled my car last night off exit 16 when a tree fell in front of me and I smashed into it head on. My life flashed before me with my daughter in the car…so I’m never driving in any inclement weather again, even in a windy rain lol. 

Wow man . Glad you and her are ok. And I know you loved that car . 

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. I pick her up from my MILs every Tuesday night. Got off 84, came around the corner (dark, pouring rain) and thought I was dreaming when I saw something come across the road so I pumped the brakes and braced for impact. Luckily I was going about 30mph and probably hit it at 15mph maybe. Could have been worse.

Wow, That's real scary, Glad your ok.

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

Holy ****!!! You and your daughter OK? I knew the winds were whipping, but geeze....Yeah, places to go in crappy road conditions are never worth it, who would have thought trees in last night's winds?!!?

Yea, we’re good. The tow guy, funny enough, is a former arborist. When I mentioned all the storms probably weakening the trees, he said that’s not true and talked about some fungi that is weakening certain trees.I was still in shock a bit so I kinda spaced out, not exactly sure which trees and the type of fungi. 

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Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I wonder if you guys will believe the nam when you get nam’d at 12z with 12-18” from kevin to ray, only to have 18z nam bring sleet to Randolph NH. 

I don’t believe the NAM. The only way I believe it is if other guidance agrees with it which by definition means I’m not taking it seriously by itself. 

I actually wouldn’t be surprised if it comes a bit south/colder at 12z to come closer to other guidance. 
 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t believe the NAM. The only way I believe it is if other guidance agrees with it which by definition means I’m not taking it seriously by itself. 

I actually wouldn’t be surprised if it comes a bit south/colder at 12z to come closer to other guidance. 
 

Ya I fully expect it to come south, but probably jump back north a few more times before game time. I’m expecting a crazy nam run at some point that even gets Ant fired up. I could see that 6z euro verifying though. 

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I think the 6z euro actually looks decent. It has a big swath of heavier QPF north of the pike which probably happens given the 850WF look and good  forcing there. Would like to see that south before we sleet, but a good thump regardless. I still expect a chunk of sleet and maybe even a touch of light rain or drizzle before maybe another inch of snow to end it. Perhaps a little more if we briefly CJ.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think the 6z euro actually looks decent. It has a big swath of heavier QPF north of the pike which probably happens given the 850WF look and good  forcing there. Would like to see that south before we sleet, but a good thump regardless. I still expect a chunk of sleet and maybe even a touch of light rain or drizzle before maybe another inch of snow to end it. Perhaps a little more if we briefly CJ.

Ya I see that as a potential verification.

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2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’d go 4-8 to sleet here 

Yeah it’s going to be hard not to get 4” even if it’s like 70-80% sleet for you. Getting over an inch of QPF is a good slug….2” of snow plus like 0.80” worth of sleet at 2 to 1 (and that may be conservative…could be 3 to 1 sleet ratios in this given the very cold layers below 800mb) gets you there already. 

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11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’d go 4-8 to sleet here 

That’s doable. Part of the issue is how this comes in. Sometimes it’s like a 2-3hr burst and then gets showery. That will get you the lower end. If it comes in like a wall and really regenerates north of the dry slot because of the 850 WF then higher end of range is possible. That I don’t know. 

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