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Winter storm for the 25th of February is imminent.


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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you see sleet getting north of Metheun?

Yeah I could see that but likely not enough to cause a significant decrease in accumulations. The more important line is where the sleet happens during several hours of the heaviest precip. 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still thinking 4-7 maybe 5-8 here in that range. And yes, despite Euro, jack in SNH of CNH perhaps in that latitude band. Agree with Will.

Brian and Lavarock will complain their way to a 12”+ jackpot. Both had melts today. :lol:

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Brian and Lavarock will complain their way to a 12”+ jackpot. Both had melts today. :lol:

We know how these work. Combine that with the typical model biases with frontal features and you have your typical SWFE sweet spot north. 
At least for now haha.

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15 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

First call. Given the fact that we are still 60+ hrs out we went with a general 4-8" for CT with highest end of the range likely for N CT and lower amounts near the coast. The globals GFS/EC/GEM being south at 12Z and colder were a good sign but we're not ready to the pull the trigger on bigger amounts 6-10/8-12 for CT just yet. We're also allowing for some tics north/warmer in future runs. Right now 4-8" for most of CT with sleet/zr slot ending as some light snow possibly. Not to mention lift in the DGZ looks god awful but several hours of 8-10:1 snowfall will achieve these ranges atm.

02_22_22_jdj_snowfall_forecast.thumb.jpg.25839545dab58190462ac264f3b65af4.jpg

02_22_22_jdj_tri_state_snowfall_forecast.thumb.jpg.1ae0d9725591961f19b2383e7720e0d7.jpg

 

 

Easy paint job ha. But Yes, soundings looks paltry right now. It can change, sure, but I think weak snow grains and sleet will dominate the southern half of the state. I have 2-4 along the coast, 4-6 central, and 6-8 north. 

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13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

sn10_024h.us_ne.png

 

There's Cory's elusive Brattleboro jack.  :)

As far as I know, the triangle between Brattleboro, Keene and Greenfield has never jackpotted with any winter storm, ever.  There have been some great storms but no jackpots.  If you really wanna get into semantics,  you could add Bennington and North Adams into that club.

In any case, this will most likely be my biggest winter event,  so far, this season.  I just need 6”+ to accomplish that.  If this storm can’t produce that here I’ll cash in the chips. 

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

As far as I know, the triangle between Brattleboro, Keene and Greenfield has never jackpotted with any winter storm, ever.  There have been some great storms but no jackpots.  If you really wanna get into semantics,  you could add Bennington and North Adams into that club.

In any case, this will most likely be my biggest winter event,  so far, this season.  I just need 6”+ to accomplish that.  If this storm can’t produce that here I’ll cash in the chips. 

All downsloped locales

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57 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Brian and Lavarock will complain their way to a 12”+ jackpot. Both had melts today. :lol:

 

53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We know how these work. Combine that with the typical model biases with frontal features and you have your typical SWFE sweet spot north. 
At least for now haha.

Just watching every 6 hrs.

Model Watching.jpg

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This is amazing to see a 

6 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

All downsloped locales

As a younger hobbyist I would not have thought that the topography of anyplace in New England was enough to cause significant rain shadowing for snow events. I thought you needed HIGH mountains for that effect. 

I think a good way for us to ensure that the valley gets its just desserts would be to gather all of you, go to that valley, and release 1.5 Million balloons into the air at once, shortly before the storm arrives, and use the event as a fundraiser for a significant upgrade for the GFS.

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2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

This is amazing to see a 

As a younger hobbyist I would not have thought that the topography of anyplace in New England was enough to cause significant rain shadowing for snow events. I thought you needed HIGH mountains for that effect. 

I think a good way for us to ensure that the valley gets its just desserts would be to gather all of you, go to that valley, and release 1.5 Million balloons into the air at once, shortly before the storm arrives, and use the event as a fundraiser for a significant upgrade for the GFS.

The topography of New England, offers quite a long list of potential snow holes. 

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2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya we pelt.. when it's all over it all looks the same.. 4-8" of snow and sleet incoming! Maybe I'll get some glazing on top down here in SWCT

Yeah southern CT could def get some ZR. There’s almost zero chance the secondary tracks north of there so it’s going to stay freezing/frozen. 

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1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya we pelt.. when it's all over it all looks the same.. 4-8" of snow and sleet incoming! Maybe I'll get some glazing on top down here in SWCT

Exactly, I’m thinking 4-8” potential in CT from SE to NW and 6-10” in MA from the Mass Pike N to S VT, S NH.   Maybe somebody lollies to a foot but isolated. 

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4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The topography of New England, offers quite a long list of potential snow holes. 

Sure it does. 

I also wrote to some of the Mets at NWS Reno and asked how much more snow Reno would get, if you took a huge chainsaw and shaved the top 1000 feet off the crest of the Sierra Nevada.

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He’s trying to get big icing into his hood but he’s going to get absolutely pelted. Doubt there’s much ZR there. 

I’ve got no horse in this race. But from N MA north it’s high stakes. You and me are in the same boat south of BOS . I learned lesson a long time ago. Never use the globals in these SWFE . NAM actually jumped north a full 24 hours before even I expected it would 

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14 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

As far as I know, the triangle between Brattleboro, Keene and Greenfield has never jackpotted with any winter storm, ever.  There have been some great storms but no jackpots.  If you really wanna get into semantics,  you could add Bennington and North Adams into that club.

In any case, this will most likely be my biggest winter event,  so far, this season.  I just need 6”+ to accomplish that.  If this storm can’t produce that here I’ll cash in the chips. 

I think 2/5/01 jacked Swanzey with 30", but that's about the only thing I could come up with for that general area.

What an epic storm that was... top 3 event for the valley, has to be.

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4 minutes ago, radarman said:

I think 2/5/01 jacked Swanzey with 30", but that's about the only thing I could come up with for that general area.

What an epic storm that was... top 3 event for the valley, has to be.

Yeah, we did not move out to Greenfield till 2007 so missed that one and the 2002 valley crusher.  Feb 2013 (Nemo) was pretty big for the Valley. 22-24” in Greenfield. 

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