ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Do you see sleet getting north of Metheun? Yeah I could see that but likely not enough to cause a significant decrease in accumulations. The more important line is where the sleet happens during several hours of the heaviest precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Still thinking 4-7 maybe 5-8 here in that range. And yes, despite Euro, jack in SNH of CNH perhaps in that latitude band. Agree with Will. Brian and Lavarock will complain their way to a 12”+ jackpot. Both had melts today. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Brian and Lavarock will complain their way to a 12”+ jackpot. Both had melts today. We know how these work. Combine that with the typical model biases with frontal features and you have your typical SWFE sweet spot north. At least for now haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 15 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: First call. Given the fact that we are still 60+ hrs out we went with a general 4-8" for CT with highest end of the range likely for N CT and lower amounts near the coast. The globals GFS/EC/GEM being south at 12Z and colder were a good sign but we're not ready to the pull the trigger on bigger amounts 6-10/8-12 for CT just yet. We're also allowing for some tics north/warmer in future runs. Right now 4-8" for most of CT with sleet/zr slot ending as some light snow possibly. Not to mention lift in the DGZ looks god awful but several hours of 8-10:1 snowfall will achieve these ranges atm. Easy paint job ha. But Yes, soundings looks paltry right now. It can change, sure, but I think weak snow grains and sleet will dominate the southern half of the state. I have 2-4 along the coast, 4-6 central, and 6-8 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I could see that but likely not enough to cause a significant decrease in accumulations. The more important line is where the sleet happens during several hours of the heaviest precip. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 High stakes bingo on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 There's Cory's elusive Brattleboro jack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: There's Cory's elusive Brattleboro jack. lol....he'll probably decide to go to Fairfield... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 18 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: There's Cory's elusive Brattleboro jack. Big north bump. Don’t ever doubt the NAM 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: There's Cory's elusive Brattleboro jack. As far as I know, the triangle between Brattleboro, Keene and Greenfield has never jackpotted with any winter storm, ever. There have been some great storms but no jackpots. If you really wanna get into semantics, you could add Bennington and North Adams into that club. In any case, this will most likely be my biggest winter event, so far, this season. I just need 6”+ to accomplish that. If this storm can’t produce that here I’ll cash in the chips. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: As far as I know, the triangle between Brattleboro, Keene and Greenfield has never jackpotted with any winter storm, ever. There have been some great storms but no jackpots. If you really wanna get into semantics, you could add Bennington and North Adams into that club. In any case, this will most likely be my biggest winter event, so far, this season. I just need 6”+ to accomplish that. If this storm can’t produce that here I’ll cash in the chips. All downsloped locales 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Big north bump. Don’t ever doubt the NAM Ya I'd get the sump pump ready if I were you, flooding rains incoming. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ya I'd get the sump pump ready if I were you, flooding rains incoming. He’s trying to get big icing into his hood but he’s going to get absolutely pelted. Doubt there’s much ZR there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 57 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Brian and Lavarock will complain their way to a 12”+ jackpot. Both had melts today. 53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We know how these work. Combine that with the typical model biases with frontal features and you have your typical SWFE sweet spot north. At least for now haha. Just watching every 6 hrs. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 This is amazing to see a 6 minutes ago, Whineminster said: All downsloped locales As a younger hobbyist I would not have thought that the topography of anyplace in New England was enough to cause significant rain shadowing for snow events. I thought you needed HIGH mountains for that effect. I think a good way for us to ensure that the valley gets its just desserts would be to gather all of you, go to that valley, and release 1.5 Million balloons into the air at once, shortly before the storm arrives, and use the event as a fundraiser for a significant upgrade for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: He’s trying to get big icing into his hood but he’s going to get absolutely pelted. Doubt there’s much ZR there. Ya we pelt.. when it's all over it all looks the same.. 4-8" of snow and sleet incoming! Maybe I'll get some glazing on top down here in SWCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: This is amazing to see a As a younger hobbyist I would not have thought that the topography of anyplace in New England was enough to cause significant rain shadowing for snow events. I thought you needed HIGH mountains for that effect. I think a good way for us to ensure that the valley gets its just desserts would be to gather all of you, go to that valley, and release 1.5 Million balloons into the air at once, shortly before the storm arrives, and use the event as a fundraiser for a significant upgrade for the GFS. The topography of New England, offers quite a long list of potential snow holes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ya we pelt.. when it's all over it all looks the same.. 4-8" of snow and sleet incoming! Maybe I'll get some glazing on top down here in SWCT Yeah southern CT could def get some ZR. There’s almost zero chance the secondary tracks north of there so it’s going to stay freezing/frozen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ya we pelt.. when it's all over it all looks the same.. 4-8" of snow and sleet incoming! Maybe I'll get some glazing on top down here in SWCT Exactly, I’m thinking 4-8” potential in CT from SE to NW and 6-10” in MA from the Mass Pike N to S VT, S NH. Maybe somebody lollies to a foot but isolated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: The topography of New England, offers quite a long list of potential snow holes. Sure it does. I also wrote to some of the Mets at NWS Reno and asked how much more snow Reno would get, if you took a huge chainsaw and shaved the top 1000 feet off the crest of the Sierra Nevada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: He’s trying to get big icing into his hood but he’s going to get absolutely pelted. Doubt there’s much ZR there. I’ve got no horse in this race. But from N MA north it’s high stakes. You and me are in the same boat south of BOS . I learned lesson a long time ago. Never use the globals in these SWFE . NAM actually jumped north a full 24 hours before even I expected it would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 14 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: As far as I know, the triangle between Brattleboro, Keene and Greenfield has never jackpotted with any winter storm, ever. There have been some great storms but no jackpots. If you really wanna get into semantics, you could add Bennington and North Adams into that club. In any case, this will most likely be my biggest winter event, so far, this season. I just need 6”+ to accomplish that. If this storm can’t produce that here I’ll cash in the chips. I think 2/5/01 jacked Swanzey with 30", but that's about the only thing I could come up with for that general area. What an epic storm that was... top 3 event for the valley, has to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I’ve got no horse in this race. But from N MA north it’s high stakes. You and me are in the same boat south of BOS South of Union ftl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: South of Union ftl? You’re in my boat. Embrace the sleet friend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’re in my boat. Embrace the sleet friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Love the no sleet all snow denials. As predicted 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Love the denials. As predicted You going with .75 ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Big north bump. Don’t ever doubt the NAM What lol. It looks pretty similar to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, radarman said: I think 2/5/01 jacked Swanzey with 30", but that's about the only thing I could come up with for that general area. What an epic storm that was... top 3 event for the valley, has to be. Yeah, we did not move out to Greenfield till 2007 so missed that one and the 2002 valley crusher. Feb 2013 (Nemo) was pretty big for the Valley. 22-24” in Greenfield. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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