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Winter storm for the 25th of February is imminent.


Typhoon Tip
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2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

That is sort of what I was thinking too but I trust the BTV guys quite a bit.  Here is their thinking

image.png.95bd6f50df8355284c67ce9fb5a34d4e.png

I agree with this....this is why I was saying earlier that even in some of these events that jackpotted SNE or southern CNE, NNE still got 8-10" of synoptic snow. It's usually aided by some ratios, but that is going to be typical when you have the colder profile and are using the 600-700mb fronto.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's called going on tilt in poker terms...he's now rooting for a crappier version of the storm that broadbrushes 6-8" so he doesn't have to worry about jackpots....even though in a better version of the storm he might actually get more even if he doesn't jackpot.

Jacks be jacking

Queens be queenin

Sitting here smilin

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12 minutes ago, mreaves said:

That is sort of what I was thinking too but I trust the BTV guys quite a bit.  Here is their thinking

image.png.95bd6f50df8355284c67ce9fb5a34d4e.png

Yeah very well laid out and these tend to bump north.  Just sometimes in SWFE we also end up with sand falling.

I guess maybe could see 0.50" water and 18:1 ratios.

Of course it could also continue trending north a bit and we end up more water and lower ratios.

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I agree with this....this is why I was saying earlier that even in some of these events that jackpotted SNE or southern CNE, NNE still got 8-10" of synoptic snow. It's usually aided by some ratios, but that is going to be typical when you have the colder profile and are using the 600-700mb fronto.

And if you look at the GFS f-gen prog for instance, the 850 and 700 mb forcing is sloped into the cold air. So the 850 forcing near the MA/NH border will be south of the 700 mb forcing in the Whites.

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z Reggie is similar to the NAM vort track...pretty far north across Lake Ontario. Something to watch to see if global models want to follow suit or if those meso models sink back south into the BUF-BGM corridor.

When have Mesos ever shunted back south and eliminated the warm layer they were designed for? I can’t recall any 

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When have Mesos ever shunted back south and eliminated the warm layer they were designed for? I can’t recall any 

They’re warmer because of their synoptics…not because of increased vertical resolution and their ability to see and model the mid level warm tongues better. 

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

They’re warmer because of their synoptics…not because of increased vertical resolution and their ability to see and model the mid level warm tongues better. 

Yeah I think some are having trouble not conflating the two. I wouldn't be surprised if the mesos score a coup on the synoptics because this is a juiced southern stream shortwave coming out of the southern US.....but that is less of a "lock" than them having a mid-level warm tongue on the same track as globals and not losing it.

 

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12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They’re warmer because of their synoptics…not because of increased vertical resolution and their ability to see and model the mid level warm tongues better. 

I get that but we’ve seen this probably hundreds of times over the years in these events . Globals are cold and Mesos track vort north resulting in mid level warmth with sleet kissing the hens and cocks chins. I know which way I am leaning 

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First call. Given the fact that we are still 60+ hrs out we went with a general 4-8" for CT with highest end of the range likely for N CT and lower amounts near the coast. The globals GFS/EC/GEM being south at 12Z and colder were a good sign but we're not ready to the pull the trigger on bigger amounts 6-10/8-12 for CT just yet. We're also allowing for some tics north/warmer in future runs. Right now 4-8" for most of CT with sleet/zr slot ending as some light snow possibly. Not to mention lift in the DGZ looks god awful but several hours of 8-10:1 snowfall will achieve these ranges atm.

02_22_22_jdj_snowfall_forecast.thumb.jpg.25839545dab58190462ac264f3b65af4.jpg

02_22_22_jdj_tri_state_snowfall_forecast.thumb.jpg.1ae0d9725591961f19b2383e7720e0d7.jpg

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I get that but we’ve seen this probably hundreds of times over the years in these events . Globals are cold and Mesos track vort north resulting in mid level warmth with sleet kissing the hens and cocks chins. I know which way I am leaning 

No, a lot of times it's they have the same track but mesos are sniffing out a strong warm layer that globals aren't. This is a little different. This is akin to a meso model having a coastal further NW while globals are SE....sometimes the mesos win that battle but there's plenty of times they don't.

This is a SE ridge SWFE, so I can definitely see this trending N. But it doesn't have to. There's strong confluence in Quebec which could easily cause a trend back S a bit. This isn't a retreating high situation which often happens in SWFEs. So while I lean N trend with a jackpot in southern to central NH, it's not a confident forecast.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

No, a lot of times it's they have the same track but mesos are sniffing out a strong warm layer that globals aren't. This is a little different. This is akin to a meso model having a coastal further NW while globals are SE....sometimes the mesos win that battle but there's plenty of times they don't.

This is a SE ridge SWFE, so I can definitely see this trending N. But it doesn't have to. There's strong confluence in Quebec which could easily cause a trend back S a bit. This isn't a retreating high situation which often happens in SWFEs. So while I lean N trend with a jackpot in southern to central NH, it's not a confident forecast.

Do you see sleet getting north of Metheun?

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