40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah ... now for some attempts at sensible caveats. I realize my tenor has been rather bullish this morning - not just me! Look at the f'n models... But, the speed in which this event is translating through is nothing shy of an unsung amazement in this modeling cinema. It's actually sped up in the last day .. day and half -worth of runs. The primary seclusion --> "secondary" ( if we wanna call it that ...) commitment --> escape sequencing covers some 400 miles of x-coordinate distance from 06z to 18z Friday ... That's insane. The rad is going to be sending pixelation at haulin' ass speeds. That may limit this. Scott also brought up a very good point about the longitudinal aspect of the open wave, tending to currier the mid level lift away at bit of an acceleration over the model position of QPF. We have to remember when looking at QPF charts: that means as of the moment the chart is drawn... What the means is that it may not actually be coming down as hard as the QPF looks at that hourly/time in question - it could already be in the books. This situation could snow 4-5" ...maybe 6" in the IB/front-side, then 3-4" on the quasi CCB as the low is escaping. We go above QPF, but not hugely so, due to these offsets. J This has been my default on this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 41 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: thinking closer to 75% here not hard to beat most of this winter.. My 30 mile drive home Friday morning will probably be hell You should be in a good spot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Logan is all snow on BUFKIT actually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Stolen from Twitter, but the two biggies have high probs of >6” for some 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Stolen from Twitter, but the two biggies have high probs of >6” for some Greater than 50% probs for all of SNE and CNE on the gfs, nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Updated 12z GEFS 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 11 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Updated 12z GEFS ... That's actually impressive for an ensemble mean - even at 3 to 3.5 days lead. Obviously there is less divergence between the operational and the respective members that weight that average. ... heh. wow. But the > 6" being in the 90th percentile or higher at this range may be both one helluva testament to modern modeling technology, but a red flag to take this seriously. Ray or whomever mentioned the last hour may be right that this could either rival or become the better performing system for the season thus far, for the interior Pike to southern NH region. I also don't want to leave out the CT-RI crew. I think this can pin a ZR axis, with a roar of sleet/snow mix rolling off roof eaves and piling up along tire hubs just N. Not sure if that will reach warning criteria ice where does, but it's a nasty event down there too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That's actually impressive for an ensemble mean - even at 3 to 3.5 days lead. Obviously there is less divergence between the operational and the respective members that weight that average. ... heh. wow. But the > 6" being in the 90th percentile or higher at this range may be both one helluva testament to modern modeling technology, but a red flag to take this seriously. Ray or whomever mentioned the last hour may be right that this could either rival or become the better performing system for the season thus far, for the interior Pike to southern NH region. I also don't want to leave out the CT-RI crew. I think this can pin a ZR axis, with a roar of sleet/snow mix rolling off roof eaves and piling up along tire hubs just N. Not sure if that will reach warning criteria ice where does, but it's a nasty event down there too. We do appreciate that. Most of the Mass Mets generally discuss that state and/ or area unless asked a question 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 50/50 shot this is my best event of the winter. many of us WNW of BOS are hoping so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We do appreciate that. Most of the Mass Mets generally discuss that state and/ or area unless asked a question ACTATT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: ACTATT. How about ACTJOT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How about ACTJOT? I don't know what that means lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't know what that means lol. All CT Just One Time 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Euro flatter early at 56. a good bit colder down here through 7am Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Euro slower which pleases me as I can sleep later.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Kevin mainly snow on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Wow, Euro is cold....coldest model on the 12z suite. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Euro a bit south. That’s good for later methinks when it starts ticking north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 You could see it early on though....there was way more confluence over Quebec around 48h-54h. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 lol euro what a ****ing pos winter 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 hopefully this sw fail event jacks nj and just leaves me with cirrus. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Wow, Euro is cold....coldest model on the 12z suite. These ticks south have this right where I want it at this range...though knowing this season, it will stay there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 10:1 clown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: lol euro what a ****ing pos winter You mean you aren't happy for the Ginxy to Will to Scooter corridor? They could really use it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Euro is southernmost guidance. NAM (yes I know...)is northernmost. Compromise is pretty good for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Yeah that is sold. No way.. not with NAM looking like it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 We were due for a good dendrite melt....now it will trend north and jackpot the chickens. Plenty of time with 72h to go. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah that is sold. No way.. not with NAM looking like it does. I kind of agree but nam may look very different in 2 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah that is sold. No way.. not with NAM looking like it does. I agree, but if there were ever a season to pull it off, its this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Pretty solid thumper on the Euro. Even the Pos. Snow Depth maps are impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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