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Winter storm for the 25th of February is imminent.


Typhoon Tip
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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ... now for some attempts at sensible caveats.    I realize my tenor has been rather bullish this morning - not just me!  Look at the f'n models...

But, the speed in which this event is translating through is nothing shy of an unsung amazement in this modeling cinema.  It's actually sped up in the last day .. day and half -worth of runs.  The primary seclusion --> "secondary" ( if we wanna call it that ...) commitment --> escape sequencing covers some 400 miles of x-coordinate distance from 06z to 18z Friday ... That's insane.  The rad is going to be sending pixelation at haulin' ass speeds.  

That may limit this.  Scott also brought up a very good point about the longitudinal aspect of the open wave, tending to currier the mid level lift away at bit of an acceleration over the model position of QPF.  We have to remember when looking at QPF charts: that means as of the moment the chart is drawn... What the means is that it may not actually be coming down as hard as the QPF looks at that hourly/time in question - it could already be in the books.   This situation could snow 4-5" ...maybe 6" in the IB/front-side, then 3-4" on the quasi CCB as the low is escaping.  We go above QPF, but not hugely so, due to these offsets.  

J

This has been my default on this.

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11 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Updated 12z GEFS 

 

...

 

That's actually impressive for an ensemble mean - even at 3 to 3.5 days lead.   Obviously there is less divergence between the operational and the respective members that weight that average. ...  heh.  wow.     But the > 6" being in the 90th percentile or higher at this range may be both one helluva testament to modern modeling technology, but a red flag to take this seriously.   

Ray or whomever mentioned the last hour may be right that this could either rival or become the better performing system for the season thus far, for the interior Pike to southern NH region.  

I also don't want to leave out the CT-RI crew. I think this can pin a ZR axis, with a roar of sleet/snow mix rolling off roof eaves and piling up along tire hubs just N.  Not sure if that will reach warning criteria ice where does, but it's a nasty event down there too.

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's actually impressive for an ensemble mean - even at 3 to 3.5 days lead.   Obviously there is less divergence between the operational and the respective members that weight that average. ...  heh.  wow.     But the > 6" being in the 90th percentile or higher at this range may be both one helluva testament to modern modeling technology, but a red flag to take this seriously.   

Ray or whomever mentioned the last hour may be right that this could either rival or become the better performing system for the season thus far, for the interior Pike to southern NH region.  

I also don't want to leave out the CT-RI crew. I think this can pin a ZR axis, with a roar of sleet/snow mix rolling off roof eaves and piling up along tire hubs just N.  Not sure if that will reach warning criteria ice where does, but it's a nasty event down there too.

We do appreciate that. Most of the Mass Mets generally discuss that state and/ or area unless asked a question 

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