Winter storm for the 25th of February is imminent.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

Holy shit that gives even Ant 8 inches. That’s more aggressive than even my forecast.

It's overdone. Don't fall for it and start thinking 20-30" is possible for BOSATT. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I remember being initially skeptical of 12"+ amounts in 2/5/14 but we were discussing the bent back WF and how it was just going nuts on the north side of it...and then it verified that morning. We were getting like 2-3" per hour rates even with snow growth not that great. Like a quasi-stationary band near the pike in that and maybe 10-20 miles either side. The QPF was big....BOS and ORH ASOS both had over an inch of QPF in that.

Not saying we can lock that in yet on this one, but if the model guidance doesn't change significantly, then it's going to happen somewhere in a 20-30 mile wide zone.

Yea, like I said....if its still doing that in another 48 hours, then I will grab a bigger boat. But sometimes we can get QPF GW runs that will slinky back to earth late in the game.

[CoastalWx]

We take Ukie and Canadian.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Realistic 

[40/70 Benchmark]

50/50 shot this is my best event of the winter.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I remember being initially skeptical of 12"+ amounts in 2/5/14 but we were discussing the bent back WF and how it was just going nuts on the north side of it...and then it verified that morning. We were getting like 2-3" per hour rates even with snow growth not that great. Like a quasi-stationary band near the pike in that and maybe 10-20 miles either side. The QPF was big....BOS and ORH ASOS both had over an inch of QPF in that.

Not saying we can lock that in yet on this one, but if the model guidance doesn't change significantly, then it's going to happen somewhere in a 20-30 mile wide zone.

I was working that day, but my wife was home and I remember her saying it was still snowing lol. I have to go back but I think I had at least 10”. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

50/50 shot this is my best event of the winter.

Same

[George001]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It's overdone. Don't fall for it and start thinking 20-30" is possible for BOSATT. 

Yeah I do think it’s overdone, but not by much especially northern areas. Will I get 18 inches? Probably not, but someone farther north might. I could easily end up with 10-12 inches if the reach around idea ends up verifying. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We take Ukie and Canadian.

Pretty good look for all so far at 12z 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

50/50 shot this is my best event of the winter.

thinking closer to 75% here not hard to beat most of this winter.. My 30 mile drive home Friday morning will probably be hell

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

thinking closer to 75% here not hard to beat most of this winter.. My 30 mile drive home Friday morning will probably be hell

Worse comes to worst, I will burn a personal day if Boston doesn't get hard enough to convince Baker....but odds are they will because the state is trigger happy due to covid....although it being school vacation week could play a factor.

[Great Snow 1717]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It's overdone. Don't fall for it and start thinking 200-300" is possible for BOSATT. 

FYP :)

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

50/50 shot this is my best event of the winter.

Probably 90/10 odds here.    

[Superstorm93]

File this under "how to hard freeze" 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Very nice looking bent back WF in the mid-levels on these runs. That is indicative of a very strong thump. Same sig as 2/5/14....that's how you can manage 10-12" of dense snow from these. You want to be just north of that mid-level WF where it's slowing down to prolong the enhancement.

Been hammering this facet ( I know ...) but, in addition to you being not only right, this

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=300wh_nb&rh=2022022200&fh=84&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

...over -saddling the region with superb evac, **ADDS** to your assessment.

Dude, this is going to over-achieve ( I feel ...)  - as a back office/water cooler muse...  But unless these metrics resolve differently, this will probably outdo the QPF max zones because there will be impossible to pin-point uncertainties wrt to meso banding ... forced by organizing frontogen/UVM slots by that diffluent mechanical layout there. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Probably 90/10 odds here.    

I hate busting high on seasonal snow totals....I would much rather keep snowing and end up low near the coast, in order to make a run at the forecast 70" here....this event could get me to within about 30" headed into March, which is within reach.

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We take Ukie and Canadian.

Nice jackpot for Ray on Ukie....good spot up there for this one....far enough south to get in on the bent back WF slowing down but far enough north to probably avoid sleet....or any sleet of consequence....a couple hours of 15 dbz sleet when you're dryslotting at the end of the thump doesn't really matter.

My gut still says the NH border region is the jackpot area, but pike region should still clean up nicely. I'm expecting a little bump north on the best features and QPF max zone. Even runs like the GEM, GFS and Ukie are tracking that vort over like BUF-ALB axis. That's not obviously the end-all-be-all....the WAA is going to get major resistance from that airmass....but you still have to think the laws of mid-levels are going to eventually square with that. You'll get a prolonged deeper saturation up closer to that track in S NH.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Been hammering this facet ( I know ...) but, in addition to you being not only right, this

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=300wh_nb&rh=2022022200&fh=84&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

...over -saddling the region with superb evac, **ADDS** to your assessment.

Dude, this is going to over-achieve ( I feel ...)  - as a back office/water cooler muse...  But unless these metrics resolve differently, this will probably outdo the QPF max zones because there will be impossible to pin-point uncertainties wrt to meso banding ... forced by organizing frontogen/UVM slots by that diffluent mechanical layout there. 

Yeah I agree John that the mechanics on this are very impressive. There are factors working in tandem that will help wring out more QPF than we might normally expect on these types of events. This is barring a major model shift of course....still could happen, but guidance has been remarkably consistent.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, stark contrast to the season thus far in that the model consistency has been great.....these kind of systems of more geared for that.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice jackpot for Ray on Ukie....good spot up there for this one....far enough south to get in on the bent back WF slowing down but far enough north to probably avoid sleet....or any sleet of consequence....a couple hours of 15 dbz sleet when you're dryslotting at the end of the thump doesn't really matter.

My gut still says the NH border region is the jackpot area, but pike region should still clean up nicely. I'm expecting a little bump north on the best features and QPF max zone. Even runs like the GEM, GFS and Ukie are tracking that vort over like BUF-ALB axis. That's not obviously the end-all-be-all....the WAA is going to get major resistance from that airmass....but you still have to think the laws of mid-levels are going to eventually square with that. You'll get a prolonged deeper saturation up closer to that track in S NH.

At least the vortmax is not the curled deal pealing into western NY....sort of elongated which allows us to not have the WAA sleeting to Randolph NH. But as you said...I sort of have this vision that due to the mid levels being so far NW...the good lift and RH allowing for snow, will leave the area a little sooner than the QPF would show. We all know this, but some of the younger crowd might not. Once the good lift leaves and we get the shallow lift....it's showery precip that's probably in the form of various ptypes. 

Maybe the 850 WF is enough lift to prolong it? We will see. I'm still generally thinking 4-7" here or so. I know guidance shows more, but I am having trouble seeing more than 8" here.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Bet'cha Kev and I get 0.0" somehow.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least the vortmax is not the curled deal pealing into western NY....sort of elongated which allows us to not have the WAA sleeting to Randolph NH. But as you said...I sort of have this vision that due to the mid levels being so far NW...the good lift and RH allowing for snow, will leave the area a little sooner than the QPF would show. We all know this, but some of the younger crowd might not. Once the good lift leaves and we get the shallow lift....it's showery precip that's probably in the form of various ptypes. 

Maybe the 850 WF is enough lift to prolong it? We will see. I'm still generally thinking 4-7" here or so. I know guidance shows more, but I am having trouble seeing more than 8" here.

Yeah the 850 WF will definitely help prolong the precip and it will also make the precip heavier during the deeper layer thump. If model guidance doesn't shift much in the next 48 hours, then I'd lock in warning snows for the pike region. Not quite there yet. I'd prob lock in warning snows a little north though near Ray. Would have to be a pretty huge model failure not to get at least 6" up there.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I agree John that the mechanics on this are very impressive. There are factors working in tandem that will help wring out more QPF than we might normally expect on these types of events. This is barring a major model shift of course....still could happen, but guidance has been remarkably consistent.

Glad you put it that way ... Because ( oops ) I realized I said QPF in the context of present model suite, but what I was thinking when typing that was "compared to SWFE climo"   - -   i mean we both know that's usually a 4-6 with lollies to 8" type standard aspect.  But because these peripheral mechanics are in play, we up-side this considerably.  

How far?   ugh - we still have 3 days and truck load of model cycles, but I would not be shocked if these are upped by 1.5 if not a factor of 2, **IF** present synoptic metrical layout holds.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Bet'cha Kev and I get 0.0" somehow.

No chance of that.  5-8” for you seems like a lock

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the 850 WF will definitely help prolong the precip and it will also make the precip heavier during the deeper layer thump. If model guidance doesn't shift much in the next 48 hours, then I'd lock in warning snows for the pike region. Not quite there yet. I'd prob lock in warning snows a little north though near Ray. Would have to be a pretty huge model failure not to get at least 6" up there.

Don't tempt fate. "Meh"thuen is an elusive place for snow-

[ineedsnow]

12z GEFS are really nice for the pike region

[FXWX]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Been hammering this facet ( I know ...) but, in addition to you being not only right, this

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=300wh_nb&rh=2022022200&fh=84&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

...over -saddling the region with superb evac, **ADDS** to your assessment.

Dude, this is going to over-achieve ( I feel ...)  - as a back office/water cooler muse...  But unless these metrics resolve differently, this will probably outdo the QPF max zones because there will be impossible to pin-point uncertainties wrt to meso banding ... forced by organizing frontogen/UVM slots by that diffluent mechanical layout there. 

The convergence / divergence model plots are also indicative of maxing out qpf...  both 300 & 250 mb model plots, as indicated in the 6z gfs run at 7 am Friday, show a strong signal for heavy precip totals..

[UnitedWx]

46 minutes ago, George001 said:

Holy shit that gives even Ant 8 inches. That’s more aggressive than even my forecast.

There's a first time for everything 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah ... now for some attempts at sensible caveats.    I realize my tenor has been rather bullish this morning - not just me!  Look at the f'n models...

But, the speed in which this event is translating through is nothing shy of an unsung amazement in this modeling cinema.  It's actually sped up in the last day .. day and half -worth of runs.  The primary seclusion --> "secondary" ( if we wanna call it that ...) commitment --> escape sequencing covers some 400 miles of x-coordinate distance from 06z to 18z Friday ... That's insane.  The rad is going to be sending pixelation at haulin' ass speeds.  

That may limit this.  Scott also brought up a very good point about the longitudinal aspect of the open wave, tending to currier the mid level lift away at bit of an acceleration over the model position of QPF.  We have to remember when looking at QPF charts: that means as of the moment the chart is drawn... What that means is that it may not actually be coming down as hard as the QPF looks at that hourly/time in question - it could already be in the books.   This situation could snow 4-5" ...maybe 6" in the IB/front-side, then 3-4" on the quasi CCB as the low is escaping.  We go above QPF, but not hugely so, due to these offsets.  

J