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Winter storm for the 25th of February is imminent.


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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Why must you weenies post the Kuchera? What is it about it? Do you get aroused when posting it? Like sleeping with 1995 Carmen Electra? Christ. Stop with that shit.

The funny thing is 10:1 is almost exactly the same for CT, RI and most of MA. So especially for this storm there's even less of reason to post it. It's zonked out in CNE and NNE obv due to the much cooler max T in the profile

 

Screenshot_20220222-090042.png

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Update:

Deadlocked on a warning event for mix/snow issues CT-RI with ice option S, and tending to majority snow N of the Pike at this point.   4 days ...well, really 3.5 days away, and the 00z individual versions have very little spread compared to the blended/consensus is convincing. 

Some longer thoughts: 

Where is mainly snow... little pinging cannot be totally eliminated with mid levels tending N of ALB-Logan axis.  It would need be a very elevated warm layer though.   What this thing has going for snow enthusiasts, is that the +PP weighting/wedging in from the N is circumstantially nearly ideal in both magnitude and duration - not too suppressive; not sliding east or west just in time to f it all up. I'm actually rather impressed at how it seems to almost need to be there during the whole show.  Interesting...   I almost suspect the ratios to be better than 12::1 by the time we're nearing Rt 2 latitude along N. Mass, and higher N.  Almost has a 1994 vibe with dry snow hosting pingers the size of small hail rattling the Pike with T's the mid to upper 20s.  The cold wedge is deep rather tight to the boundary extending E just S of LI.  It's a good candidate for a thin but important ZR band - obviously we'll need to finer tune these transition zones later on.    

The placement and power of a strong diffluent (evac) jet,  extending slantwise upward from 500 thru the 300 mb, has been a leitmotif in the guidance for this, set to align from upstate NY to the Maritime of Canada overnight Thursday through the 18z or so Friday.  That coincides with the QPF snow shield blooming over W-N-E above the mix corridor, but doing so unusually far into NNE.  Without doing discrete analysis ... I'm reasonably certain that expansion is anomalous, relative to this system's centric kinematics, and is being driven by that forcing.  I also think that stretches the UVM some vertically and we may see some banding in the snow as the atm tends to organize/frontogenic ... The SGZ tends to be less than ideal in these situations, but I'm curious if said extension by jet forcing might lift the growth into a better depth of the sounding.  I don't think this system has quite enough punch to really toast the 700mb.  It's a oddly detailed take from 3.5 days out, but frankly ...these synoptic metrics have been coherent in all guidance/ens for days now.  The metrics are correct; I'm speculating (also) how they may synergize a winter storm performance... Excluding something extraordinary as yet to modeled challenges  ( and modicum of correctness to this ... lol), I don't see these synoptics changing.

This system is characterized by:

weak centric mechanics benefiting from strong peripheral jet fields, with +PWAT anomaly forced over boundary with a steep angular ascent. That ascent then gets exaggerated ( some) relative to 1000mb type storm climo, by the former ... basically an over-achiever incarnate.   A weak to low moderate scaled cyclone, with very good QPF mechanics, in an unusually ideal polar high position.

I don't wanna get into snow totals yet from this range too discretely but ... the climo for this sort of SWFE ordeal is 6" with lolly's to 10?  I don't have a problem with at minimum going mid way in that range... leave it at that for now.

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Christ ..hahaha...  over a 72+ hour NAM, where/whence synoptic precision - no less... - is the requirement? 

You guys are eye-shifting around like Gollum slithers between the lichen covered rocks of middle-modeled earth seeking the precious paranoia    

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