HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It drives me nuts. lol. It's like the king of clowns. Especially in a SWFE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I still don't see the low raming into the high that far north like the Nam shows. The low isn't even that strong. Yeah there is a limit to how far north this can go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Why must you weenies post the Kuchera? What is it about it? Do you get aroused when posting it? Like sleeping with 1995 Carmen Electra? Christ. Stop with that shit. The funny thing is 10:1 is almost exactly the same for CT, RI and most of MA. So especially for this storm there's even less of reason to post it. It's zonked out in CNE and NNE obv due to the much cooler max T in the profile 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 You’re going to make me engage in behavior that gets me “warning points” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Some already triggered on here, Hate to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: This is how I picture your rage when one of those is posted. Definitely some good angry music. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: You’re going to make me engage in behavior that gets me “warning points” Just twist 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just twist I’m not the one whose so far away when I feel the snake bite into my veins 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 The sleet always comes in faster and gets farther north than modeled. And when the NAM sniffs it.. pay attention 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 Update: Deadlocked on a warning event for mix/snow issues CT-RI with ice option S, and tending to majority snow N of the Pike at this point. 4 days ...well, really 3.5 days away, and the 00z individual versions have very little spread compared to the blended/consensus is convincing. Some longer thoughts: Where is mainly snow... little pinging cannot be totally eliminated with mid levels tending N of ALB-Logan axis. It would need be a very elevated warm layer though. What this thing has going for snow enthusiasts, is that the +PP weighting/wedging in from the N is circumstantially nearly ideal in both magnitude and duration - not too suppressive; not sliding east or west just in time to f it all up. I'm actually rather impressed at how it seems to almost need to be there during the whole show. Interesting... I almost suspect the ratios to be better than 12::1 by the time we're nearing Rt 2 latitude along N. Mass, and higher N. Almost has a 1994 vibe with dry snow hosting pingers the size of small hail rattling the Pike with T's the mid to upper 20s. The cold wedge is deep rather tight to the boundary extending E just S of LI. It's a good candidate for a thin but important ZR band - obviously we'll need to finer tune these transition zones later on. The placement and power of a strong diffluent (evac) jet, extending slantwise upward from 500 thru the 300 mb, has been a leitmotif in the guidance for this, set to align from upstate NY to the Maritime of Canada overnight Thursday through the 18z or so Friday. That coincides with the QPF snow shield blooming over W-N-E above the mix corridor, but doing so unusually far into NNE. Without doing discrete analysis ... I'm reasonably certain that expansion is anomalous, relative to this system's centric kinematics, and is being driven by that forcing. I also think that stretches the UVM some vertically and we may see some banding in the snow as the atm tends to organize/frontogenic ... The SGZ tends to be less than ideal in these situations, but I'm curious if said extension by jet forcing might lift the growth into a better depth of the sounding. I don't think this system has quite enough punch to really toast the 700mb. It's a oddly detailed take from 3.5 days out, but frankly ...these synoptic metrics have been coherent in all guidance/ens for days now. The metrics are correct; I'm speculating (also) how they may synergize a winter storm performance... Excluding something extraordinary as yet to modeled challenges ( and modicum of correctness to this ... lol), I don't see these synoptics changing. This system is characterized by: weak centric mechanics benefiting from strong peripheral jet fields, with +PWAT anomaly forced over boundary with a steep angular ascent. That ascent then gets exaggerated ( some) relative to 1000mb type storm climo, by the former ... basically an over-achiever incarnate. A weak to low moderate scaled cyclone, with very good QPF mechanics, in an unusually ideal polar high position. I don't wanna get into snow totals yet from this range too discretely but ... the climo for this sort of SWFE ordeal is 6" with lolly's to 10? I don't have a problem with at minimum going mid way in that range... leave it at that for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 29 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Especially in a SWFE. Kutchera maps can be useful in deformation bands, but that's about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 All models flip everyone back over to snow later Friday so can all maybe grab a few inches of fluff on top of the snow/ sleet/ ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 12z Nam takes that primary pretty far NW of the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Either way, great thump on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Once Nam sniffs.. lock it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Either way, great thump on the NAM. close to being ugly even here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 This one is starting to remind me of the 02/04 event from a few weeks back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z Nam takes that primary pretty far NW of the 06z run. I thought it was slower timing but you’re right, it still tracks the vort over Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Once Nam sniffs.. lock it Meh I’m not impressed yet. It’s longer range for the NAM and I’ve seen it be wrong for this. Which is good for me I don’t want the NAM solution anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: This one is starting to remind me of the 02/04 event from a few weeks back. Because of a couple NAM runs? It may be right, but I’m skeptical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 NAM is a sleet fest here. Not much plain rain at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just watch the vort track....if you track it over Toronto, it's going to be a warmer profile than if you are tracking it over BUF to BGM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Because of a couple NAM runs? It may be right, but I’m skeptical No, Not just because of the Nam, That one had snow/sleet/ice just like this one has on all the models except the ones that are to cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 Christ ..hahaha... over a 72+ hour NAM, where/whence synoptic precision - no less... - is the requirement? You guys are eye-shifting around like Gollum slithers between the lichen covered rocks of middle-modeled earth seeking the precious paranoia 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_observer Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Someone's kid home on February vacation made the maps at NWS today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: No, Not just because of the Nam, That one had snow/sleet/ice just like this one has on all the models except the ones that are to cold. I’m guessing I’ll get more snow this go around… just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Once Nam sniffs.. lock it Tossed. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 NAM is like 3” of snow here followed by a sandblasting of sleet. I’d sign for that. I’ve been consistent over the years in wanting to experience prolonged sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m guessing I’ll get more snow this go around… just my opinion This will end up well south of 2/4....even the chickens struggled to snow much in that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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