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Winter storm for the 25th of February is imminent.


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2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

6z NAM is pretty amped and gets sleet up to southern NH

That NAM run is pretty far north with the vort too. Tracks it up into Lake Ontario and Toronto. 
 

A lot of other guidance is more like Erie PA to BGM to MHT which would keep the sleet line probably near or south of the pike. 

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That NAM run is pretty far north with the vort too. Tracks it up into Lake Ontario and Toronto. 
 

A lot of other guidance is more like Erie PA to BGM to MHT which would keep the sleet line probably near or south of the pike. 

We know the drill. That was the run I was waiting for 

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15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When the NAM blasts sleet north into SC NH.. denials always happen.. and in the end .. the Nam wins 

06zNAM might be right but it’s synoptically different than other guidance with how far north the vort is. If other guidance gets that vort tracking into Toronto then they will bring sleet up to S NH too. It’s not a situation where they are tracking things the same but NAM is just blasting ML warmth further north. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06zNAM might be right but it’s synoptically different than other guidance with how far north the vort is. If other guidance gets that vort tracking into Toronto then they will bring sleet up to S NH too. It’s not a situation where they are tracking things the same but NAM is just blasting ML warmth further north. 

Yea, I trust the NAM with one thing....mid level warm tongues. However, I trust it with nothing synoptically speaking, so need to see more consensus before biting off on sleet to MHT, though I have said all along that I do not rule that out. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I trust the NAM with one thing....mid level warm tongues. However, I trust it with nothing synoptically speaking, so need to see more consensus before biting off on sleet to MHT, though I have said all along that I do not rule that out. 

It will probably correct itself if indeed the other guidance keeps the vort tracking where it is. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

That NAM run is pretty far north with the vort too. Tracks it up into Lake Ontario and Toronto. 
 

A lot of other guidance is more like Erie PA to BGM to MHT which would keep the sleet line probably near or south of the pike. 

Yeah I’d be hesitant to trust the NAM synoptically at this point so maybe it’ll come back south. I trust its thermals, but not until it gets the synoptics figured out. 
 

ninja’d by everyone 

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Check yourself before you wreck yourself

It should adjust some but that ability of it to sniff out the warm mid levels is one of its strong suits. 

Yeah. One thing I did like seeing is that secondary start to take over. That will limit the sleet extent. It’s always tough to tell on euro without good soundings but I don’t think 6z euro got much sleet past I-90.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It will probably correct itself if indeed the other guidance keeps the vort tracking where it is. 

I still expect at least a bit of IP or maybe some rimed flakes where I am, at least for a bit, but I do not expect it to limit accumulations much....at this point.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah. One thing I did like seeing is that secondary start to take over. That will limit the sleet extent. It’s always tough to tell on euro without good soundings but I don’t think 6z euro got much sleet past I-90.

That is the one wild card that I have been watching. I don't think it happens quickly enough for any amounts over a foot, but it may be enough to mitigate sleep migration northward.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah. One thing I did like seeing is that secondary start to take over. That will limit the sleet extent. It’s always tough to tell on euro without good soundings but I don’t think 6z euro got much sleet past I-90.

The dense airmass in place is going to help focus a lot of heavy lift over SNE even if we get sleet up to NH border area…so I think I’d probably be going warning snowfall amounts here unless we start getting this vort tracking north of Lake Ontario into Ottawa and start pelting the chickens. 
 

But I’m also a little bit skeptical of a very far north vort track for the same reason. Lot of confluence up there. This is a pretty ideal location for high pressure. Classic scooter high. 

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