powderfreak Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Just like the last one that teased SNE for days and then verified as mixed crap into parts NNE. That was a bit different though with a wave riding a frontal boundary and waiting for cold air to come in, while this classic SWFE look has cold in place ahead of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: I'm not inclined to believe that any more than I'm inclined to believe halving snow in the next two decades. Solar inputs have indicated we've been cooling for at least decades now, and annual average temp hasn't cared one bit. Now significant reduction of snow cover days, that I could believe. Anyway, the EPS EFI highlighting the Pike to NH border with the most extreme values right now for the model climate. But nothing eye popping, which to me points towards a pretty standard sort of SWFE for this time of year. Well, since both sides of the climate change mantra have had poor records with their predictions, why don't we just let nature take its course? It's not something that we can control anyway, despite what some think. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: Well, since both sides of the climate change mantra have had poor records with their predictions, why don't we just let nature take its course? It's not something that we can control anyway, despite what some think. Not really the thread for this, but Regardless, should be a nice event. A little tricky since it's more of a hybrid than true SWFE. Instead of one big lateral band sweeping over the whole region is starts to slide east late and becomes more quasi-stationary. So that northern edge is not a lock (beyond the mix issues south). So like congrats Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Soon? Shit we snowed in April the last 2 years 4/17/21 was the last snowfall of the previous season here in Enfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s always the zone where you go from have/ have nots in these Except for the times it isn’t. Sometimes it’s closer to MA/CT border (like 12/16/07) or sometimes it’s more like HFD-PVD line where the sleet stalls (like 12/13/07 or 2/5/14) and others it’s the pike and others it’s MHT-PSM (12/3/07?) This one looks like it might be near the pike but it could be more near you too. Or up by rt 2. 2/5/14 is a pretty good looking analog right now. 1/28/09 is a decent analog too but I don’t like how that one had the high sliding east. Both this event and the 2/5/14 event have the high in a very good spot not sliding east so it may be tougher to trend the sleet well north up into MHT or CON. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Except for the times it isn’t. Sometimes it’s closer to MA/CT border (like 12/16/07) or sometimes it’s more like HFD-PVD line where the sleet stalls (like 12/13/07 or 2/5/14) and others it’s the pike and others it’s MHT-PSM (12/3/07?) This one looks like it might be near the pike but it could be more near you too. Or up by rt 2. 2/5/14 is a pretty good looking analog right now. 1/28/09 is a decent analog too but I don’t like how that one had the high sliding east. Both this event and the 2/5/14 event have the high in a very good spot not sliding east so it may be tougher to trend the sleet well north up into MHT or CON. Where can I go to find snowfall maps for all these historical events? With major winter storms I can often google image and I get a map on google. But a storm like "2/5/2014" is not among em. Same for other systems as well that I have wanted to look up, for example, the only significant snowstorm for Westerly RI during the 2001-2002 winter in which I was in high school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Except for the times it isn’t. Sometimes it’s closer to MA/CT border (like 12/16/07) or sometimes it’s more like HFD-PVD line where the sleet stalls (like 12/13/07 or 2/5/14) and others it’s the pike and others it’s MHT-PSM (12/3/07?) This one looks like it might be near the pike but it could be more near you too. Or up by rt 2. 2/5/14 is a pretty good looking analog right now. 1/28/09 is a decent analog too but I don’t like how that one had the high sliding east. Both this event and the 2/5/14 event have the high in a very good spot not sliding east so it may be tougher to trend the sleet well north up into MHT or CON. What about Feb 2nd 2015? It looks like this one is turning into a Miller B like that one was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Except for the times it isn’t. Sometimes it’s closer to MA/CT border (like 12/16/07) or sometimes it’s more like HFD-PVD line where the sleet stalls (like 12/13/07 or 2/5/14) and others it’s the pike and others it’s MHT-PSM (12/3/07?) HOLY CRAP! Will mentioning the Only Bigger Surprise storm in my life to Super Bowl Sunday, 12/16/07!! Got 10", expected 2" and Rain. But Will, is it just COMPLETE Coincidence with the million storms you know, that 12/13/07 and 12/16/07 are similar here? Because I thought they were Completely different storms. 12/13/07 being a Classic Bombogenises 12" Quick in and out comma head Bomb with 3" per hour, and 12/16/07 being a flat SWFE type storm with only 1" per hour at most, where the R/S line just stayed south... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Talking about death and last snows and you thought it was time for a joke? Lol j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 18Z Euro is thumpity thump 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 18Z Euro is thumpity thump Can you please share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 Well like I said earlier and I still believe is the case… There’s a limit to how far this ordeal can go north. Models were pressed up against the synoptic wall. 18z sag not surprising. They’ll probably try to make another run or two at a North solution but they’ll keep bouncing off the physical limitation of mlv confluence, and llv boundary layer resistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 16 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: Can you please share? only shows the start of it not really in full range yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: only shows the start of it not really in full range yet 1 to 2 per hour 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: 1 to 2 per hour For how long though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, 8611Blizz said: For how long though? This is all snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Looking at height contours on the 18z vs 12z on the Euro @H5, Looks like the s/w would be a bit more amped and probably north of the 12z run if it went out further, At the surface its NW of 12z at hr 96 to hr 90 on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 ain't no taint? Sweet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said: ain't no taint? Sweet.. Not yet. The longer we thump the better to overcome marginal boundaries. Getting inside of 4 days now. A good thump to sleet would be nice. Jackpot gonna be Berks to Boston North to Monads I believe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: ain't no taint? Sweet.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 12 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looking at height contours on the 18z vs 12z on the Euro @H5, Looks like the s/w would be a bit more amped and probably north of the 12z run if it went out further, At the surface its NW of 12z at hr 96 to hr 90 on the 18z run. 18z EPS mean…. Still a decent amount of spread in the individual members. The Probability maps liked the Dead Bodies best. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 ALY afd likes all snow for here Thursday night and Friday, mentioned possible phasing or nrn.stream clipper early next week after this... winter ain't ovah yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 As long as this doesnt take a big hike north, maybe I can count on a good thump. 3-5 inches with sleet mixed in... A white concrete slab. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, tavwtby said: ALY afd likes all snow for here Thursday night and Friday, mentioned possible phasing or nrn.stream clipper early next week after this... winter ain't ovah yet just starting for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 23 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: just starting for us? never quite got going, nickle and dime our way to 30" this year, I'm not even at 25", hopefully this and the next couple weeks offer a few chances at making up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Boston is at 43 inches for the winter. They will get to 60 inches. Meanwhile Albany only has 17 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 It's the NAM at 84 hrs, but looks good for a nice thump at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Boston is at 43 inches for the winter. They will get to 60 inches. Meanwhile Albany only has 17 inches Has Eastern New York State had climo problems with snowfall in the last decade, a decade where SNE has seen more good storms (The 2010s)? I know it's just my sensation, but I always feel like Albany is some netherworld no-man's land. It's not new england, but it is the same region. It's like an undiscovered bonus room. It's like where you would end up if you managed to jump over the flag at the end of a Super Mario Brother's level Someone will get mad that I posted this, but 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 hours ago, IowaStorm05 said: Where can I go to find snowfall maps for all these historical events? With major winter storms I can often google image and I get a map on google. But a storm like "2/5/2014" is not among em. Same for other systems as well that I have wanted to look up, for example, the only significant snowstorm for Westerly RI during the 2001-2002 winter in which I was in high school. Not sure about plotted snowfall maps for non-major events, but you can always grab the PNS reports from the IA State site: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 15-18" still? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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