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Winter storm for the 25th of February is imminent.


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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

 

I'm not inclined to believe that any more than I'm inclined to believe halving snow in the next two decades. Solar inputs have indicated we've been cooling for at least decades now, and annual average temp hasn't cared one bit. Now significant reduction of snow cover days, that I could believe.

Anyway, the EPS EFI highlighting the Pike to NH border with the most extreme values right now for the model climate. But nothing eye popping, which to me points towards a pretty standard sort of SWFE for this time of year.

Well, since both sides of the climate change mantra have had poor records with their predictions, why don't we just let nature take its course?  It's not something that we can control anyway, despite what some think.

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1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Well, since both sides of the climate change mantra have had poor records with their predictions, why don't we just let nature take its course?  It's not something that we can control anyway, despite what some think.

Not really the thread for this, but :huh:

Regardless, should be a nice event. A little tricky since it's more of a hybrid than true SWFE. Instead of one big lateral band sweeping over the whole region is starts to slide east late and becomes more quasi-stationary. So that northern edge is not a lock (beyond the mix issues south). So like congrats Dendrite.

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41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s always the zone where you go from have/ have nots in these 

Except for the times it isn’t. Sometimes it’s closer to MA/CT border (like 12/16/07) or sometimes it’s more like HFD-PVD line where the sleet stalls (like 12/13/07 or 2/5/14) and others it’s the pike and others it’s MHT-PSM (12/3/07?)

This one looks like it might be near the pike but it could be more near you too. Or up by rt 2. 
 

2/5/14 is a pretty good looking analog right now. 1/28/09 is a decent analog too but I don’t like how that one had the high sliding east. Both this event and the 2/5/14 event have the high in a very good spot not sliding east so it may be tougher to trend the sleet well north up into MHT or CON. 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Except for the times it isn’t. Sometimes it’s closer to MA/CT border (like 12/16/07) or sometimes it’s more like HFD-PVD line where the sleet stalls (like 12/13/07 or 2/5/14) and others it’s the pike and others it’s MHT-PSM (12/3/07?)

This one looks like it might be near the pike but it could be more near you too. Or up by rt 2. 
 

2/5/14 is a pretty good looking analog right now. 1/28/09 is a decent analog too but I don’t like how that one had the high sliding east. Both this event and the 2/5/14 event have the high in a very good spot not sliding east so it may be tougher to trend the sleet well north up into MHT or CON. 

Where can I go to find snowfall maps for all these historical events? With major winter storms I can often google image and I get a map on google. But a storm like "2/5/2014" is not among em. Same for other systems as well that I have wanted to look up, for example, the only significant snowstorm for Westerly RI during the 2001-2002 winter in which I was in high school.

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Except for the times it isn’t. Sometimes it’s closer to MA/CT border (like 12/16/07) or sometimes it’s more like HFD-PVD line where the sleet stalls (like 12/13/07 or 2/5/14) and others it’s the pike and others it’s MHT-PSM (12/3/07?)

This one looks like it might be near the pike but it could be more near you too. Or up by rt 2. 
 

2/5/14 is a pretty good looking analog right now. 1/28/09 is a decent analog too but I don’t like how that one had the high sliding east. Both this event and the 2/5/14 event have the high in a very good spot not sliding east so it may be tougher to trend the sleet well north up into MHT or CON. 

What about Feb 2nd 2015? It looks like this one is turning into a Miller B like that one was.

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29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Except for the times it isn’t. Sometimes it’s closer to MA/CT border (like 12/16/07) or sometimes it’s more like HFD-PVD line where the sleet stalls (like 12/13/07 or 2/5/14) and others it’s the pike and others it’s MHT-PSM (12/3/07?)

HOLY CRAP!  Will mentioning the Only Bigger Surprise storm in my life to Super Bowl Sunday, 12/16/07!!  Got 10", expected 2" and Rain.  But Will, is it just COMPLETE Coincidence with the million storms you know, that 12/13/07 and 12/16/07 are similar here?  Because I thought they were Completely different storms.  

 

12/13/07 being a Classic Bombogenises 12" Quick in and out comma head Bomb with 3" per hour, and 12/16/07 being a flat SWFE type storm with only 1" per hour at most, where the R/S line just stayed south...   

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Well like I said earlier and I still believe is the case… There’s a limit to how far this ordeal can go north. 

Models were pressed up against the synoptic wall. 18z sag not surprising.  They’ll probably try to make another run or two at a North solution but they’ll keep bouncing off the physical limitation of mlv confluence, and llv boundary layer resistance
 

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12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Looking at height contours on the 18z vs 12z on the Euro @H5, Looks like the s/w would be a bit more amped and probably north of the 12z run if it went out further, At the surface its NW of 12z at hr 96 to hr 90 on the 18z run.

trend-ecmwf_full-2022022112-f096.500hv.conus.gif

18z EPS mean…. Still a decent amount of spread in the individual members.  The Probability maps liked the Dead Bodies best.

382C643E-F76A-4F82-8178-D1B81CADA9BE.thumb.png.853e99ec629ff580bd6f83d592fd3c10.png

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10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Boston is at 43 inches for the winter. They will get to 60 inches. 

 

Meanwhile Albany  only has 17 inches 

Has Eastern New York State had climo problems with snowfall in the last decade, a decade where SNE has seen more good storms (The 2010s)?

I know it's just my sensation, but I always feel like Albany is some netherworld no-man's land. It's not new england, but it is the same region. It's like an undiscovered bonus room. It's like where you would end up if you managed to jump over the flag at the end of a Super Mario Brother's level

Someone will get mad that I posted this, but 00z NAM 

Screenshot 2022-02-21 9.56.46 PM.png

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2 hours ago, IowaStorm05 said:

Where can I go to find snowfall maps for all these historical events? With major winter storms I can often google image and I get a map on google. But a storm like "2/5/2014" is not among em. Same for other systems as well that I have wanted to look up, for example, the only significant snowstorm for Westerly RI during the 2001-2002 winter in which I was in high school.

Not sure about plotted snowfall maps for non-major events, but you can always grab the PNS reports from the IA State site:

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml

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