Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I want this godawful winter to end. It is about as irredeemable to me as it can get. I just haven't been the same since my dad passed, and I don't want to drag others down ruminating about that here. I could use a landscape change. I respect that it's Feb 21 and winter isn't (and shouldn't be) over, so I'm posting less. Carry on. I know the feeling, I lost my dad on 7/31/21 and I've been living alone in his house ever since. Not a day goes by that I don't think about him. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: I treat each snow as my very last as it certainly could be. Well climo for the season is soon going to 0 after all. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Well climo for the season is soon going to 0 after all. A couple years ago, we were actually making fun of a peer reviewed paper that showed snow climo going to like 40-50% of normal for places like ORH and PWM by 2040. I always wondered how those pass the smell test. I’m pretty open-minded, but ORH averaging 30” of snow in less than 2 decades is a hard one to square. I mean, we routinely clear that by 1-2 feet even in +3 or +4 temp departure winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: A couple years ago, we were actually making fun of a peer reviewed paper that showed snow climo going to like 40-50% of normal for places like ORH and PWM by 2040. I always wondered how those pass the smell test. I’m pretty open-minded, but ORH averaging 30” of snow in less than 2 decades is a hard one to square. I mean, we routinely clear that by 1-2 feet even in +3 or +4 temp departure winters. The new DC in 20 years for sure 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Wonder how many posts qg_omega will be allowed per day in 20 years? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 NAM, RGEM, and ICON all trending colder for the 18z suite. Good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: A couple years ago, we were actually making fun of a peer reviewed paper that showed snow climo going to like 40-50% of normal for places like ORH and PWM by 2040. I always wondered how those pass the smell test. I’m pretty open-minded, but ORH averaging 30” of snow in less than 2 decades is a hard one to square. I mean, we routinely clear that by 1-2 feet even in +3 or +4 temp departure winters. Even I don’t think that is going to happen. Now by 2100 I wonder if that could be a thing. I could see New Haven having a climate like DC in 20 to 40 years. I Feel like SNE is already seeing thunderstorm activity that is more synonymous with the upper south, if 2021 is any indication. Versus a couple decades ago, when you could go an entire summer with barely a couple thunderstorms in RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: Even I don’t think that is going to happen. Now by 2100 it could be a potential issue. But not 2040. Agree. According to some climate scientists, the Maunder Minimum we are now entering heralds a prolonged cold stretch of maybe 35 years, despite global warming. So unless we have some winter droughts, I don't care if a peer reviewed paper claims otherwise. It's not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 15 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Agree. According to some climate scientists, the Maunder Minimum we are now entering heralds a prolonged cold stretch of maybe 35 years, despite global warming. So unless we have some winter droughts, I don't care if a peer reviewed paper claims otherwise. It's not happening. Yeah I just found some of those articles. I mean it would make a lot of sense. You don't see too much of that in the media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 GFS also going to be colder... more confluence in SE Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 poundage on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 The way it looks now... Seems like an advisory event down here. We're just one or two towns away from the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GFS also going to be colder... more confluence in SE Canada Keep it going until Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: Yeah I just found some of those articles. I mean it would make a lot of sense. You don't see too much of that in the media. 20 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Agree. According to some climate scientists, the Maunder Minimum we are now entering heralds a prolonged cold stretch of maybe 35 years, despite global warming. So unless we have some winter droughts, I don't care if a peer reviewed paper claims otherwise. It's not happening. I'm not inclined to believe that any more than I'm inclined to believe halving snow in the next two decades. Solar inputs have indicated we've been cooling for at least decades now, and annual average temp hasn't cared one bit. Now significant reduction of snow cover days, that I could believe. Anyway, the EPS EFI highlighting the Pike to NH border with the most extreme values right now for the model climate. But nothing eye popping, which to me points towards a pretty standard sort of SWFE for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 It's a bit odd, but conservative WU has 9" of snow here, while Crapuweather has 2-4" and 0.05 - 0.15 of freezing rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: It's a bit odd, but conservative WU has 9" of snow here, while Crapuweather has 2-4" and 0.05 - 0.15 of freezing rain. might be close for you and I would never use either of those for a accurate forecast.. pretty sure they base them off one model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 So if euro holds serve we have pretty good consensus for 84-96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Well climo for the season is soon going to 0 after all. Soon? Shit we snowed in April the last 2 years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Gfs is definitely colder than 12z here… good sign. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattm4242 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Bizarro winter, i once again like my location with this, even on the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 We will need all the south trends we can get from Boston points south before that NAM run comes that we all know is coming that blasts sleet up to Concord . Everyone denies and inevitably happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We will need all the south trends we can get from Boston points south before that NAM run comes that we all know is coming that blasts sleet up to Concord . Everyone denies and inevitably happens And we all know how accurate the NAM is at hr 84, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: And we all know how accurate the NAM is at hr 84, lol. The one that comes 36 hours prior to go time and never stops . They ALWAYS come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: The one that comes 36 hours prior to go time and never stops . They ALWAYS come Surface cold usually resolves colder while mid-levels go warmer. Agreed with you there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Surface cold usually resolves colder while mid-levels go warmer. Agreed with you there. Yup. This one will be no different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup. This one will be no different Just like the last one that teased SNE for days and then verified as mixed crap into parts NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Soon? Shit we snowed in April the last 2 years 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2022 Author Share Posted February 21, 2022 49 minutes ago, weathafella said: So if euro holds serve we have pretty good consensus for 84-96 hours. We had that at 00z actually ... I posted the charts to demo page 7 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Wonder why Kevin specifically mentions Boston points south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wonder why Kevin specifically mentions Boston points south. That’s always the zone where you go from have/ have nots in these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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