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Winter storm for the 25th of February is imminent.


Typhoon Tip
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35 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I want this godawful winter to end. It is about as irredeemable to me as it can get.

I just haven't been the same since my dad passed, and I don't want to drag others down ruminating about that here. I could use a landscape change. 

I respect that it's Feb 21 and winter isn't (and shouldn't be) over, so I'm posting less. Carry on. 

You said yourself your Dad loved winter. Use it as a sign. Time helps my man. Both my parents are gone now. There is no way they would want me to wallow in grief. I treat each snow as my very last as it certainly could be. Enjoy each day keep your faith man. Best wishes. By the way LETS DO THIS

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@WxWatcher007So sorry to hear of your dad's passing. I lost mine 8 years ago, and it's no coincidence I just hit 8 years sober. In the short term, try to garner strength from it in order to make sense of it all, and then in the long run while it never goes away, it does get more manageable.

May he RIP.

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36 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I want this godawful winter to end. It is about as irredeemable to me as it can get.

I just haven't been the same since my dad passed, and I don't want to drag others down ruminating about that here. I could use a landscape change. 

I respect that it's Feb 21 and winter isn't (and shouldn't be) over, so I'm posting less. Carry on. 

Sorry to hear that, I lost both my parents not too long ago so I know how you feel. They wouldn't want you to wallow in a depression so enjoy the things that make you happy. We still have some good times coming in the next few weeks so try and enjoy it best you can.

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17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Boston will rack up the snow totals next month

Big negative epo and negative PNA

This isn't the thread for that but ... be leery of that assumption.  The correlations heading through March for -EPO may not be the same in March as is such in D J or F - just be warned...

The wave lengths overall begin shortening pretty coherently from Mar 1 to 30 ...  That means a -EPO block may not transitively force a favorable look this far away ... 

March is a spring month that by virtue of our geography ... we've always claimed as a winter affair.  But, that's bit of a circumstantial ownership.  Some years simply don't product in March ... In fact, that seems to be more common since 2000, ... definitely since 2010 - even though there's been some blue bombs too. 

There are other aspect more circumstantial to now ...The larger hemisphere's circulation mode is only vaguely coupled to the La Nina base-state.   The MJO has been for the most part ... irrelevant this season. It's attempted to move from Phase 7 ...twice, and twice failed.. .bouncing around for 10 days along the interface between 7 .. 8, ultimately deteriorating it's momentum to nothing.   This time, we have a wave momentum that is strengthen back over the India region, which is correlated to the La Nina - the two may together force the atmosphere to "re"couple to the La Nina.   It's unclear what that will mean for pattern, when combining that uncertainty ..with the seasonal relaxation stuff above.  

Bottom line...there's competing signals here.  

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16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Talk to the dews in the single digits and 20s 

There’s no debating that the late Feb / early March sun will melt the snow more quickly than December January I don’t care what the dew point is. That’s all we are saying, I’ll take snow any month but it will melt quickly this time of year is our only point. The inch from Saturday was gone in less than 24 hours with temperatures below freezing and low dews as well. 

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4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

There’s no debating that the late Feb / early March sun will melt the snow more quickly than December January I don’t care what the dew point is. That’s all we are saying, I’ll take snow any month but it will melt quickly this time of year is our only point. The inch from Saturday was gone in less than 24 hours with temperatures below freezing and low dews as well. 

Fluffer nutter snow. Yea it melts but this isn't April either. Let's crush the next three weeks. Stat padder or not 

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17 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

There’s no debating that the late Feb / early March sun will melt the snow more quickly than December January I don’t care what the dew point is. That’s all we are saying, I’ll take snow any month but it will melt quickly this time of year is our only point. The inch from Saturday was gone in less than 24 hours with temperatures below freezing and low dews as well. 

I still have some areas on the north side of my house with snow cover but the rest was gone the next day.

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27 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

There’s no debating that the late Feb / early March sun will melt the snow more quickly than December January I don’t care what the dew point is. That’s all we are saying, I’ll take snow any month but it will melt quickly this time of year is our only point. The inch from Saturday was gone in less than 24 hours with temperatures below freezing and low dews as well. 

Still have some of it here

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43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@WxWatcher007So sorry to hear of your dad's passing. I lost mine 8 years ago, and it's no coincidence I just hit 8 years sober. In the short term, try to garner strength from it in order to make sense of it all, and then in the long run while it never goes away, it does get more manageable.

May he RIP.

Agree I lost my dad 6 years ago. Although you never get over it does get easier to manage 

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23 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

The Euro 10:1 snow map seems extremely logical for this type of event. 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

I’m skeptical of anything more than isolated double digit totals but a widespread swath of 6”+ in New England seems logical. My initial hunch is it’s overdone from the Pike south and you shift it north a bit, more like a sloppy few inches for BOS. Going to be a very sharp southern gradient. 

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I just caught up on the 12z runs as I was out all morning away from internet. 
 

The trend seemed to be a subtle shift south on the 12z guidance. GFS did bump north a bit but all the foreign models came a little south so the overall suite was a little colder/south than 00z. 
 

I still think this comes back a little north at some point down the stretch. The question is whether it sags a little south first before that happens. I’m also finding myself agreeing with Tip that the overall tenor of this system really hasn’t changed much at all in the past 48 hours. GFS made its usual moves but the rest of guidance hasn’t been all over the map that much. Esp when you concede that we’ve been tracking this since 200 hours out. 

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