78Blizzard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The SPC HREF mean sure seems to be something between the NAM and RGEM based on snow amounts...no doubt its indicating the Euro is probably out to lunch I know which one I'll trust more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 0z HREF fwiw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 This is the model. I don’t want to see Any Other to start time. Taking my 14”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Hi! Can I ask, What is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said: Hi! Can I ask, What is this? Sorry… it’s the 0z HREF: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean§or=ne 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The SPC HREF mean sure seems to be something between the NAM and RGEM based on snow amounts...no doubt its indicating the Euro is probably out to lunch The HREF is a 10 member ensemble which includes the previous (most recent) two runs of the HiresW (2 different versions - I'm assuming it's the HRW-ARW and the HRW-ARW2), FV3, 3km NAM, and and HRRR (for the conus only). I think the model runs at 18UTC might be skewing the mean. If it warms up or stays consistent by its next cycle, then I'd agree with you. Correct me if I misread it: https://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/txt_descriptions/HREF_doc.shtml 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 SREF's looking like it's (their) usual self (selves). LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 I'm letting my weenie out. Someone mentioned it a little while ago, but the RAP is quite bullish for snowfall accumulations. The image below is using its imbedded SLR algorithm (computed between PBL time-steps) which is a conditional function of hydrometeor type (ice densities for snow and sleet is calculated separately then weighted as one) and the lowest model layer's air temperature. I like the spatial extent of the accumulations, but the magnitude is too high imo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 29 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: But That can go both ways too. You’re gonna be/your area is the winner in this I believe. Depending how quickly the sleet comes in..will be the difference here between 6” or 8+” here. Never expected pure snow. But that high means business this time…it’s stout and entrenched. I agree the NAM was crap...all I mean is some of the other guidance will tic north and compromise some. I think the south trend is done, save for the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, MegaMike said: I'm letting my weenie out. Someone mentioned it a little while ago, but the RAP is quite bullish for snowfall accumulations. The image below is using its imbedded SLR algorithm (computed between PBL time-steps) which is a conditional function of hydrometeor type (ice densities for snow and sleet is calculated separately then weighted as one) and the lowest model layer's air temperature. I like the spatial extent of the accumulations, but the magnitude is too high imo... What is up with the ATARI graphics.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 I actually prefer the RAP over the NAM. I conducted research on analysis data and found that the NAM tends to overestimate moisture related fields at initialization. I hate to self promote my videos, but here's the evaluation I conducted (February-2020) on numerous analysis/reanalysis datasets. If you scroll to the end of the video, note that the box and whisker plots are skewed to the right for moisture related fields (radiosonde plots). I imagine that these problems plague forecast simulations as well (for the NAM). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 21 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: Hi! Can I ask, What is this? My wet dream run? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: My wet dream run? Maybe. I was actually going to say it looks kind of stingy around these parts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is up with the ATARI graphics.. I thought the same. NCEP can't afford data scientists to create better graphics lol. I got the image from here: https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php Snipping Tool FTW! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is up with the ATARI graphics.. It’s calculating my temp/dew right now. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 0z Euro a tick (~10 miles) warmer and further north compared to 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, wxsniss said: 0z Euro a tick (~10 miles) warmer and further north compared to 12z The trends tonight seem to be less amped as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 8 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: The trends tonight seem to be less amped as well. If it’s further north wouldnt it be more amped? I haven’t really noticed any trends, tucked south earlier and back north a bit tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Euro tickled north 10-15 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 hours ago, MegaMike said: I actually prefer the RAP over the NAM. I conducted research on analysis data and found that the NAM tends to overestimate moisture related fields at initialization. I hate to self promote my videos, but here's the evaluation I conducted (February-2020) on numerous analysis/reanalysis datasets. If you scroll to the end of the video, note that the box and whisker plots are skewed to the right for moisture related fields (radiosonde plots). I imagine that these problems plague forecast simulations as well (for the NAM). That is Amazing Work MegaMike! Can't imagine How many hours it took JUST to come up with the plan of what you'd do, let alone go through with it. And Glad to know the Rap is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 6z models warmed again. NAm is very warm aloft lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z models warmed again. NAm is very warm aloft lol. Nam is wild lol hrrr is cold initially here then torches post precip into the 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 But its the off hr runs.............. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: But its the off hr runs.............. That’s only euro, obviously the off hour euro run last night was wrong and did it again, those off hour runs can’t be trusted. Weird battle going on with nam inside 24 hours and everything else even rgem is pretty toasty.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Interesting that BOX left CT as a watch while they bumped everyone north to a warning. I guess 12z will be do or die for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 But but but we are done with the warmer ticks. We tried to tell em. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: But but but we are done with the warmer ticks. We tried to tell em. I’d love nam to verify - the melts would be epic doesn’t change much here sleet storm 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I’d love nam to verify - the melts would be epic doesn’t change much here sleet storm 2022 I’m just so tired of weenies trying to shove it back into our faces when we try to actually use our experience with these and warn about risks to the warmer side. Euro looks to be too cold right now and has been. NAM still may be aggressive, but honestly it hasn’t had a whole scale change and if anything got warmer at 6z. So that means something, even if it’s too aggressive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 I did compare 18z gfs 500 from 6z today. It definitely went north with the shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m just so tired of weenies trying to shove it back into our faces when we try to actually use our experience with these and warn about risks to the warmer side. Euro looks to be too cold right now and has been. NAM still may be aggressive, but honestly it hasn’t had a whole scale change and if anything got warmer at 6z. So that means something, even if it’s too aggressive. It took longer than expected but the north shift is here! NAM is starting to be concerning bc it's not doing the normal nap flip flop HREF and RGEM are warm as well.. It's really GFS EURO and HRRR vs the NAM and RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now