mahk_webstah Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: You should be good for 6-9” 6 inches just isn’t good enough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: 6 inches just isn’t good enough This can go sideways quickly… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: 6 inches just isn’t good enough Story of my life. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: You’ll do better than that. I’ve started believing in a 500-600mb fronto-band from west to east across C/N NE. Western shore of Lake Ontario into north/west NE, or cutting through C.NE? Tough to say if someone fluffs themselves to some decent total. But QPF progs are fairly uniform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It wouldn’t shock me if euro ticked warmer but I think we’re settling in now. Sleet probably gets to and north of pike, but not for long. That’s my guess. Agree. This is likely my best event of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: 6 inches just isn’t good enough At your age? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I’ve started believing in a 500-600mb fronto-band from west to east across C/N NE. Western shore of Lake Ontario into north/west NE, or cutting through C.NE? Tough to say if someone fluffs themselves to some decent total. But QPF progs are fairly uniform. I would look at 500 and 700 lift and side closer to 500mb. You can use the point and click soundings to help narrow that zone in and find the DGZ. I generally don’t like using 500mb as it starts to get a little high for my liking, but you get the idea. Sometimes the models key in on those areas by showing a band of slightly higher QPF. It may not be much, but that could be a signal for the currier and Ives band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This can go sideways quickly… Check please.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2022 Author Share Posted February 24, 2022 35 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Realistically, how much is going to change in a system like this in the next 24 hours? Your weighting right now looks good and is unlikely to change beyond some noise. Not a whole helluva lot - unlikely. Mine were spit ballin. But frankly the blended means been some 80% of where the consensus is now goin back three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 re: 0z RGEM... it's almost identical to 12z... 18z was the colder oscillation ie., not sure I'd read 0z RGEM as a significant trend vs. noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, wxsniss said: re: 0z RGEM... it's almost identical to 12z... 18z was the colder oscillation ie., not sure I'd read 0z RGEM as a significant trend vs. noise I was thinking about this. Against the backdrop of other 00z models so far, I think it is mostly noise. The thump on the immediate coast isnt even really much different I just saw a 10 mile reduction in southward sag of ~6 inch amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree. This is likely my best event of the winter. What did you get in the blizzard? a foot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Check please.... People talking about inches and fluffers, is this the porn stars new forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 I'm confused why the Models have gone colder and colder but everyone is saying South of the Pike, like Me in NE RI is still in a big danger zone. I feel like this is going to be the OLD CLaaaaassic I get 3"-4" and Crapola that Looks like Crapola when it's done and people at the pike get 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Gfs is a tick warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, TheSnowman said: I'm confused why the Models have gone colder and colder but everyone is saying South of the Pike, like Me in NE RI is still in a big danger zone. I feel like this is going to be the OLD CLaaaaassic I get 3"-4" and Crapola that Looks like Crapola when it's done and people at the pike get 12". Not getting colder for me down in nw jersey, gfs just took my snow away lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Looks like the mesos are not in the NAM camp. That includes the HRRR, ARW, NSSL and the FV3 - all of them. And the RAP is with them as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 00z GFS is nice. Disclaimer it is Kuchie. The thought is turning to the wonder if Upton would soon become compelled to extend warning down to the CT shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 0z GFS did tick warmer but sensible impacts not much different from 18z/12z Still a big hit for pike region GFS loving the parting fluff at the end Russians ticking west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2022 Author Share Posted February 24, 2022 Mein kampf looks a little NORLUNy into NE Mass Friday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Yeah these are the ticks. Will matter for southern crowd. Gfs already shaved 3-4” for Taunton. We tried to tell Tblizz. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 We'll see what the Ukie and Euro show, but at this point one can't expect to see other than noise from this point forward, as the GFS just showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: We'll see what the Ukie and Euro show, but at this point one can't expect to see other than noise from this point forward, as the GFS just showed. Taste the sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Models making small corrections. The south push gave us wiggle room. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Models making small corrections. The south push gave us wiggle room. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah these are the ticks. Will matter for southern crowd. Gfs already shaved 3-4” for Taunton. We tried to tell Tblizz. Not surprising and why the buffer we built today was key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah these are the ticks. Will matter for southern crowd. Gfs already shaved 3-4” for Taunton. We tried to tell Tblizz. Again, I’ve fully expected some sleet from the jump… the gfs “tic” was more like noise to me. Very small move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Taste the sleet. Yeah, just a little fleeting taste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Again, I’ve fully expected some sleet from the jump… the gfs “tic” was more like noise to me. Very small move We tick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Again, I’ve fully expected some sleet from the jump… the gfs “tic” was more like noise to me. Very small move Just about all of the mesos still have you with a 6-8" thump before the sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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