LovewellHemp Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 1:54 PM, Ginx snewx said: When you smell the taint is when you get crushed with those 2 per hour unstable rates. Helluva winter storm incoming Expand Is the extreme S coast expected to see any of this? I'm not sure how quickly to expect a flip to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I don't place much stock in the HRRR until 24 hrs out, So 0z tonight we will see where its at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 1:58 PM, dryslot said: I don't place much stock in the HRRR until 24 hrs out, So 0z tonight we will see where its at. Expand It’s been on fire from 24-48 lately. Been watching very closely this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Hrrr shows 6-8” for southern ct bit I bet that’s like 4-6” with an inch of sleet on top., 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 1:43 PM, CoastalWx said: HRRR is most certainly warmer than 6z. Expand It would have been almost impossible for it not to be...it was so cold at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 1:52 PM, CoastalWx said: Reckless? It’s the reality. Tossed. Expand You're as cold as ice! You're willing to sacrifice our love! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 1:56 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ya warmer but still a great thump. NAM on an island still. Expand Well it's very hard to compare during the meat as it was beyond its range. What we can see is during the heaviest rates of sleet that BL is extremely thin. Like previous storms this year would not surprise me if during heavy omega people flip back to heavy snow until rates lighten up. Man this still looks pretty impactful all across the state. Me on the road to Columbia at 6AM for my loss. I think NCT border Kev to NW CT Union Woodstock could hit 8 to 10 as it stands today. 6 to 8 west to east Middletown North. 4 to 6 rest of the state. Good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 12:20 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. I pick her up from my MILs every Tuesday night. Got off 84, came around the corner (dark, pouring rain) and thought I was dreaming when I saw something come across the road so I pumped the brakes and braced for impact. Luckily I was going about 30mph and probably hit it at 15mph maybe. Could have been worse. Expand Eversource expects to have power restored to the remaining 400,000 customers who are in the dark from this tree fall no later than Monday. Glad both of you are okay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 1:54 PM, Ginx snewx said: When you smell the taint is when you get crushed with those 2 per hour unstable rates. Helluva winter storm incoming Expand Warm layer there is kind of weak sauce...and lower than the typical 750-800 zone you'd normally see it. Something to watch if we're not going to see that really distinct warm layer in the 750 zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 2:00 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: It’s been on fire from 24-48 lately. Been watching very closely this winter. Expand Yes sir me as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 2:08 PM, Ginx snewx said: Well it's very hard to compare during the meat as it was beyond its range. What we can see is during the heaviest rates of sleet that BL is extremely thin. Like previous storms this year would not surprise me if during heavy omega people flip back to heavy snow until rates lighten up. Man this still looks pretty impactful all across the state. Me on the road to Columbia at 6AM for my loss. I think NCT border Kev to NW CT Union Woodstock could hit 8 to 10 as it stands today. 6 to 8 west to east Middletown North. 4 to 6 rest of the state. Good times Expand On 2/23/2022 at 2:09 PM, ORH_wxman said: Warm layer there is kind of weak sauce...and lower than the typical 750-800 zone you'd normally see it. Something to watch if we're not going to see that really distinct warm layer in the 750 zone. Expand Yes sir we are on the same page 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 just saw the 6z Euro thats kind of ugly for CT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 2:12 PM, ineedsnow said: just saw the 6z Euro thats kind of ugly for CT Expand Seems like we have 2 camps.... Some models are more Snow for southern new england, others are more sleet and ice. Hars to tell at this point. Can go either way. I did see the NWS circle most of the CT amd RI area with a note of uncertainty still in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 Not sure I see why the UKMET is presumptively wrong, but okay.. Seems a bit impulsive. This event's coverage this week has been rather revealing when it comes to load-balancing group pessimism vs optimism. The group tends to merely register a colder appealed cycle, but look out! We're making failure declaratives at the slightest giga motion of noise - that cannot be avoided at 72 hours lead btw. The hyper focus to do so makes autistic savantism look like ADHD. Lol - Anyway, I still think the QPF is handling well. From the get go, some 5+ days, pretty remarkable synoptic consistency. There have been two distinct synoptic metrics in all guidance that really support QP going above the 'SWFE climotology' QPF suggestion. -- deep latitude +PWAT air source -- ancillary jet mechanics with superb lateral exit jet between 500 and 300 mb overarching N of the baroclinic wall/wave as it ripples underneath. The 500 mb is between this latter feature, and that upper air accelerating wind field. This should aid in propelling UVM slots and ( I believe ) we may see this punch into a deeper GZ than people think - possibly even as a modest behavior bust. ...this latter aspect is experimental... just sayn'. That's an extreme jet construct though. ...I suppose we should add fact that the idiosyncrasies of this set up has a polar high uniquely situated to really maximize BL resistance. This will have a compressed thermal packing closer to the boundary... Dry sleet affair where that happens. Also, I get the whole warm tongue stuff with a 10000 foot sleet column routine, okay - but this won't likely produce that kind of elevated layer. It doesn't have that kind of mechanical thrust between 850 and 700 to do so. This is unique in a sense ...it is maximizing QPF mechanics by accentuated lift of a higher PWAT air, out of less WAA above 1300 meters. This is the way it has looked to me for days. I'm pretty set on NWS snow chart - I like what they've got. 8-12" along Rt 2 ...with a smear down to Brian... and points N (ratio inflation notwithstanding). 6-8" along the Pike, increasing sleet contamination S. 4-6" with sleet and ZR ~ HFD - PVD ... 1-4" S. Shore with ZR/IP. Cape as usual will require an intervention by a team of specialists 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 1:20 PM, Lava Rock said: 6-8" is what I saw earlier. Expand We're in the 4-6" color though close to 6-8. Maybe in the latter if we get ratios 15:1 or better, though being on the north fringe generally means crummy flake development and 8:1 sand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 2:19 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Not sure I see why the UKMET is presumptively wrong, but okay.. Seems a bit impulsive. This event's coverage this week has been rather revealing when it comes to load-balancing group pessimism vs optimism. The group tends to merely register a colder appealed cycles, but look out! We're making failure declaratives at the slightest giga motion of noise - that cannot be avoided at 72 hours lead btw. The hyper focus to do so makes autistic savantism look like ADHD. Lol - Anyway, I still think the QPF is handling well. From the get go, some 5+ days, pretty remarkable synoptic consistency. There have been two distinct synoptic metrics in all guidance that really support QP going above the 'SWFE climotology' QPF suggestion. -- deep latitude +PWAT air source -- ancillary jet mechanics with superb lateral exit jet between 500 and 300 mb overarching N of the baroclinic wall/wave as it ripples underneath. The 500 mb is between this latter feature, and that upper air accelerating wind field. This should aid in propelling UVM slots and ( I believe ) we may see this punch into a deeper GZ than people think - possibly even as a modest behavior bust. ...this latter aspect is experimental... just sayn'. That's an extreme jet construct though. ...I suppose we should add fact that the idiosyncrasies of this set up has a polar high uniquely situated to really maximize BL resistance. This will have a compress thermal packing closer to the boundary...Also, I get the whole warm tongue stuff with a 10000 foot sleet column routine, okay - but this won't likely produce that kind of elevated layer. It doesn't have that kind of mechanical thrust between 850 and 700 to do so. This is unique in a sense ...it is maximizing QPF mechanics by accentuated lift of a higher PWAT air, out of less WAA above 1300 meters. This is the way it has looked to me for days. I'm pretty set on NWS snow chart - I like what they've got. 8-12" along Rt 2 ...with a smear down to Brian... and points N (ratio inflation notwithstanding). 6-8" along the Pike. 4-6 with sleet and ZR ~ HFD - PVD ... 1-4 S. Shore with ZR/IP. Cape needs team of specialists Expand It’s a defense mechanism. It’s also why some for are clinging to the NAM. Hedge the warm solution to temper expectations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 12z NAM is going to be pretty icy in CT, That primary is holding on a bit longer too over near BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 NAM looks like sleet to central NH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 2:24 PM, dryslot said: 12z NAM is going to be pretty icy in CT. Expand Yes I could tell pretty quickly it is a hodge podge of mixed precip with a completely irregular "Snow line" This storm in general makes me nervous about my shift that starts mid day on Friday. 40 mile drive. They are pretty lenient about weather call outs for my totem pole spot, but on the other hand I have had health problems hamper my effeciency around there, and I don't have a whole lot of reciprocity bargaining chips to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 2:25 PM, ineedsnow said: NAM looks like sleet to central NH Expand The Nam is like a beagle hunting rabbits. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 ugly run for most of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 2:27 PM, ineedsnow said: ugly run for most of SNE Expand No denying since the 06z runs other then the GFS, Models have ticked warmer whether some want to believe it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 2:29 PM, dryslot said: No denying since the 06z runs other then the GFS, Models have ticked warmer whether some want to believe it or not. Expand Some knew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 2:27 PM, dryslot said: The Nam is like a beagle hunting rabbits. Expand It looks... Odd. It is like the blizzard where it was a hound dog chasing the bird off the shore of Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Either the Nam is completely wrong or it is on to something....hard to tell at this point. So we toss, for now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Ukie is a joke, it's not a defense mechanism, it makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Nam is worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 2:29 PM, dryslot said: No denying since the 06z runs other then the GFS, Models have ticked warmer whether some want to believe it or not. Expand I’ll wait until the real models roll out before making any concrete observations. We know you want the warm trend down here, you’ve been pimping the NAM for 2 days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 2:29 PM, CoastalWx said: Some knew. Expand You did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 The NAM is still a bit of an outlier, but is an entirely plausible scenario where the primary low chugs way ahead into NY state while any secondary low develops far too late to be meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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