powderfreak Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, mreaves said: Here are some of the finer details Seems aggressive given data through 12z. No ensembles or models I can see showing widespread 7-10”… then the 18z NAM came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 NAM definitely made a small adjustment. The H5 vort seems to get shunted a bit further south vs 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 I just started to play around with the free F5 Weather stuff earlier today. Neat collection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Seems aggressive given data through 12z. No ensembles or models I can see showing widespread 7-10”… then the 18z NAM came out. That is sort of what I was thinking too but I trust the BTV guys quite a bit. Here is their thinking 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, mreaves said: That is sort of what I was thinking too but I trust the BTV guys quite a bit. Here is their thinking I agree with this....this is why I was saying earlier that even in some of these events that jackpotted SNE or southern CNE, NNE still got 8-10" of synoptic snow. It's usually aided by some ratios, but that is going to be typical when you have the colder profile and are using the 600-700mb fronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You mean you aren't happy for the Ginxy to Will to Scooter corridor? They could really use it. We definitely could 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: It's called going on tilt in poker terms...he's now rooting for a crappier version of the storm that broadbrushes 6-8" so he doesn't have to worry about jackpots....even though in a better version of the storm he might actually get more even if he doesn't jackpot. Jacks be jacking Queens be queenin Sitting here smilin 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: By 84 the dark colors are in all of NNE That’s a decent improvement over the last run. 10 inches all the way to the CT-RI border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 12 minutes ago, mreaves said: That is sort of what I was thinking too but I trust the BTV guys quite a bit. Here is their thinking Yeah very well laid out and these tend to bump north. Just sometimes in SWFE we also end up with sand falling. I guess maybe could see 0.50" water and 18:1 ratios. Of course it could also continue trending north a bit and we end up more water and lower ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 18z Reggie is similar to the NAM vort track...pretty far north across Lake Ontario. Something to watch to see if global models want to follow suit or if those meso models sink back south into the BUF-BGM corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 23 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Run total... That’s more like it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I agree with this....this is why I was saying earlier that even in some of these events that jackpotted SNE or southern CNE, NNE still got 8-10" of synoptic snow. It's usually aided by some ratios, but that is going to be typical when you have the colder profile and are using the 600-700mb fronto. And if you look at the GFS f-gen prog for instance, the 850 and 700 mb forcing is sloped into the cold air. So the 850 forcing near the MA/NH border will be south of the 700 mb forcing in the Whites. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Narcan for me. GFS 11.9 all snow EURO 12.9 all snow GEM 11.2 .27 Sleet NAM 6.0 .72 sleet frz rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: And if you look at the GFS f-gen prog for instance, the 850 and 700 mb forcing is sloped into the cold air. So the 850 forcing near the MA/NH border will be south of the 700 mb forcing in the Whites. Too many Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Too many Queens. Not enough if you ask me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Narcan for me. GFS 11.9 all snow EURO 12.9 all snow GEM 11.2 .27 Sleet NAM 6.0 .72 sleet frz rain It’s going to be a very wintry day regardless. Even the warmer models here today don’t really have any plain rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z Reggie is similar to the NAM vort track...pretty far north across Lake Ontario. Something to watch to see if global models want to follow suit or if those meso models sink back south into the BUF-BGM corridor. When have Mesos ever shunted back south and eliminated the warm layer they were designed for? I can’t recall any Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 36 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Run total... i like that pink sucker hole right over @dendrite's chickens 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: i like that pink sucker hole right over @dendrite's chickens In the pink and the stink 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: When have Mesos ever shunted back south and eliminated the warm layer they were designed for? I can’t recall any They’re warmer because of their synoptics…not because of increased vertical resolution and their ability to see and model the mid level warm tongues better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: In the pink and the stink Mostly the latter this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Narcan for me. GFS 11.9 all snow EURO 12.9 all snow GEM 11.2 .27 Sleet NAM 6.0 .72 sleet frz rain Think you go combo of NAM/GEM. 6-8 with some taint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: They’re warmer because of their synoptics…not because of increased vertical resolution and their ability to see and model the mid level warm tongues better. Yeah I think some are having trouble not conflating the two. I wouldn't be surprised if the mesos score a coup on the synoptics because this is a juiced southern stream shortwave coming out of the southern US.....but that is less of a "lock" than them having a mid-level warm tongue on the same track as globals and not losing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 meh, 6-8" ain't gonna cut it. Just end this winter already 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: They’re warmer because of their synoptics…not because of increased vertical resolution and their ability to see and model the mid level warm tongues better. I get that but we’ve seen this probably hundreds of times over the years in these events . Globals are cold and Mesos track vort north resulting in mid level warmth with sleet kissing the hens and cocks chins. I know which way I am leaning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 First call. Given the fact that we are still 60+ hrs out we went with a general 4-8" for CT with highest end of the range likely for N CT and lower amounts near the coast. The globals GFS/EC/GEM being south at 12Z and colder were a good sign but we're not ready to the pull the trigger on bigger amounts 6-10/8-12 for CT just yet. We're also allowing for some tics north/warmer in future runs. Right now 4-8" for most of CT with sleet/zr slot ending as some light snow possibly. Not to mention lift in the DGZ looks god awful but several hours of 8-10:1 snowfall will achieve these ranges atm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just get it to BUF lat then let it slide east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I get that but we’ve seen this probably hundreds of times over the years in these events . Globals are cold and Mesos track vort north resulting in mid level warmth with sleet kissing the hens and cocks chins. I know which way I am leaning No, a lot of times it's they have the same track but mesos are sniffing out a strong warm layer that globals aren't. This is a little different. This is akin to a meso model having a coastal further NW while globals are SE....sometimes the mesos win that battle but there's plenty of times they don't. This is a SE ridge SWFE, so I can definitely see this trending N. But it doesn't have to. There's strong confluence in Quebec which could easily cause a trend back S a bit. This isn't a retreating high situation which often happens in SWFEs. So while I lean N trend with a jackpot in southern to central NH, it's not a confident forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: No, a lot of times it's they have the same track but mesos are sniffing out a strong warm layer that globals aren't. This is a little different. This is akin to a meso model having a coastal further NW while globals are SE....sometimes the mesos win that battle but there's plenty of times they don't. This is a SE ridge SWFE, so I can definitely see this trending N. But it doesn't have to. There's strong confluence in Quebec which could easily cause a trend back S a bit. This isn't a retreating high situation which often happens in SWFEs. So while I lean N trend with a jackpot in southern to central NH, it's not a confident forecast. Do you see sleet getting north of Metheun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Still thinking 4-7 maybe 5-8 here in that range. And yes, despite Euro, jack in SNH or CNH perhaps in that latitude band. Agree with Will. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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