RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 4:06 PM, WinterWolf said: That’s a nice look on 12z GFS…we take Expand Soundings are meh verbatim but we can dissect that once we're inside 48hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 4:08 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was like that in March 2018....took me a good year or so to start b*tching again. Expand Actually, I lied...I did some bitching the next day when BOX tossed my 31" total. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 4:05 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Banned. Expand As I mentioned in the other post; you can see what I mean on the snow maps for the gfs. The little regeneration and lingering snow late bumps from like you down to like Foxboro over a foot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 4:10 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: As I mentioned in the other post; you can see what I mean on the snow maps for the gfs. The little regeneration and lingering snow late bumps from like you down to like Foxboro over a foot. Expand Yea, there is a shot for the transfer coupled with the easterly fetch to do that, but I wasn't going there on Sunday, when I issued that first map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 3:59 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why do you broach that issue with me like every day? lol Its pretty robust, I get it....I don't rip and read it. Its the best algorithm for determining precip type, but its still just a tool. Also, its only as good as the data that the model is spitting out, so if the modeled QPF is overdone, so will its snow output. I'll still sell widespread amounts over a foot. Expand Just for clarification purposes. You said Kuchera was good for banding what is Narcan best at. You posted NAM can you post the globals as well? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 4:10 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: As I mentioned in the other post; you can see what I mean on the snow maps for the gfs. The little regeneration and lingering snow late bumps from like you down to like Foxboro over a foot. Expand Snow maps are overdone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 4:07 PM, CoastalWx said: It's pretty legit on GFS. low 30s to low 20s in less than an hour. Expand meh.. has to be right as the sun is setting with the massive last February sun angle scorching everything.. unless its like 40 to 20 in 30 min 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 4:14 PM, Ginx snewx said: Just for clarification purposes. You said Kuchera was good for banding what is Narcan best at. You posted NAM can you post the globals as well? Expand NARCAN is good with thermals away from the immediate coast, and banding....it can be too stingy near the ocean. If it is still that robust come Thursday, I will def consider it more strongly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 4:15 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: meh.. has to be right as the sun is setting with the massive last February sun angle scorching everything.. unless its like 40 to 20 in 30 min Expand It was around dusk here. I mean it would freeze stuff up quick here because that’s basically the cstl front coming through after getting into low 30s with what probably will be some slushy mess too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 4:15 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Snow maps are overdone. Expand Possibly. I’ll be honest with you though. As long as the morning is crappy enough to get me a day off, I could care less what happens after that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 4:17 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Possibly. I’ll be honest with you though. As long as the morning is crappy enough to get me a day off, I could care less what happens after that Expand Yea, we need KBOS to get smoked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 4:15 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Snow maps are overdone. Expand ? Isn't the graphic and sounding showing light snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 4:17 PM, CoastalWx said: It was around dusk here. I mean it would freeze stuff up quick here because that’s basically the cstl front coming through after getting into low 30s with what probably will be some slushy mess too. Expand ya just looked that's extremely impressive for you guys. here it's more gradual but would still turn everything to concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 4:09 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: I await Scooter coming to my house and throwing me off Mt Wachusett Expand Nah, you guys have been in a hole. Scooter has love for all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Very nice looking bent back WF in the mid-levels on these runs. That is indicative of a very strong thump. Same sig as 2/5/14....that's how you can manage 10-12" of dense snow from these. You want to be just north of that mid-level WF where it's slowing down to prolong the enhancement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 4:17 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: NARCAN is good with thermals away from the immediate coast, and banding....it can be too stingy near the ocean. If it is still that robust come Thursday, I will def consider it more strongly. Expand Caveat being that big deform bands are poorly modeled, so even the NARCAN maps will not fully capture it....again, only as good as the model output. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 4:18 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: ya just looked that's extremely impressive for you guys. here it's more gradual but would still turn everything to concrete. Expand Yeah you guys inland probably have it more gradual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 4:15 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Snow maps are overdone. Expand I don’t really know how to read those super well but it looks like to my untrained eye that everything is below freezing. I’m not so sure it is overdone, that reach around signal is on all guidance. Features like that wouldnt the mesoscale models be able to pick up on better? If anything, I would think it’s being underdone by the global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 4:17 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Possibly. I’ll be honest with you though. As long as the morning is crappy enough to get me a day off, I could care less what happens after that Expand Oh yea. Not arguing against that. I'm not going anywhere Friday. I'm only debating the big clown map totals which are counting the backend reach around as some high ratio fluff bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 4:18 PM, Ginx snewx said: ? Isn't the graphic and sounding showing light snow? Expand Yea but the clown maps are adding several inches when it's probably just weenie feel good light snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Yikes 1 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 4:19 PM, ORH_wxman said: Very nice looking bent back WF in the mid-levels on these runs. That is indicative of a very strong thump. Same sig as 2/5/14....that's how you can manage 10-12" of dense snow from these. You want to be just north of that mid-level WF where it's slowing down to prolong the enhancement. Expand Yeah big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 4:23 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yikes Expand NGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 4:23 PM, CoastalWx said: NGW Expand Yea, sell for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 4:23 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yikes Expand Holy shit that gives even Ant 8 inches. That’s more aggressive than even my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 4:18 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, we need KBOS to get smoked. Expand On 2/22/2022 at 4:23 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yikes Expand That’ll do 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Dryslot Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 It does appear to mix in BOS on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 4:23 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah big time. Expand Yeah I remember being initially skeptical of 12"+ amounts in 2/5/14 but we were discussing the bent back WF and how it was just going nuts on the north side of it...and then it verified that morning. We were getting like 2-3" per hour rates even with snow growth not that great. Like a quasi-stationary band near the pike in that and maybe 10-20 miles either side. The QPF was big....BOS and ORH ASOS both had over an inch of QPF in that. Not saying we can lock that in yet on this one, but if the model guidance doesn't change significantly, then it's going to happen somewhere in a 20-30 mile wide zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/22/2022 at 4:28 PM, CT Valley Dryslot said: It does appear to mix in BOS on the 12z GFS. Expand No mix there but the growth sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 The 12z RGEM looks like a good ole plastering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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