ineedsnow Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 6z NAM is pretty amped and gets sleet up to southern NH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Good overnight trends to keep this all frozen for the southern zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 hours ago, ineedsnow said: 6z NAM is pretty amped and gets sleet up to southern NH That NAM run is pretty far north with the vort too. Tracks it up into Lake Ontario and Toronto. A lot of other guidance is more like Erie PA to BGM to MHT which would keep the sleet line probably near or south of the pike. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Good overnight trends to keep this all frozen for the southern zones. Figures, I just started putting these up yesterday....it's going to tear them all down, LoL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Gfs still seems decent. I still expect some ticks north. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That NAM run is pretty far north with the vort too. Tracks it up into Lake Ontario and Toronto. A lot of other guidance is more like Erie PA to BGM to MHT which would keep the sleet line probably near or south of the pike. We know the drill. That was the run I was waiting for 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Euro is pretty snowy like region into SNH. Congrats ray. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We know the drill. That was the run I was waiting for Yeah I could see 6-10” over the MA/CT border while you get 3-4” of snow and pellets. Certainly still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I could see 6-10” over the MA/CT border while you get 3-4” of snow and pellets. Certainly still on the table. Just like north shore of BOS on north could get 6-10” while south of there from you south gets 3-4” of snow and ice . Certainly still on table 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We know the drill. That was the run I was waiting for Take the <4 and pad your stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radiator Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 @Spanks45 by any chance is that 6 mil plastic UV-resistant greenhouse film? How much snow load is “too much” for that? Is the poly film the weak point or is it the hoop strength? Or does it mainly depend on the hoop spacing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just like north shore of BOS on north could get 6-10” while south of there from you south gets 3-4” of snow and ice . Certainly still on table Just dumbfounded. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Just dumbfounded. When the NAM blasts sleet north into SC NH.. denials always happen.. and in the end .. the Nam wins 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: When the NAM blasts sleet north into SC NH.. denials always happen.. and in the end .. the Nam wins You are one odd dude! Lol But, you may be right, you may be wrong. We still have 3 days to iron this out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: When the NAM blasts sleet north into SC NH.. denials always happen.. and in the end .. the Nam wins 06zNAM might be right but it’s synoptically different than other guidance with how far north the vort is. If other guidance gets that vort tracking into Toronto then they will bring sleet up to S NH too. It’s not a situation where they are tracking things the same but NAM is just blasting ML warmth further north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Beware the warm tongue, It licked a lot of faces on 02/04. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 I expect some sleet out of this here. But not a ton Interesting that WCVB has all snow down to ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 06zNAM might be right but it’s synoptically different than other guidance with how far north the vort is. If other guidance gets that vort tracking into Toronto then they will bring sleet up to S NH too. It’s not a situation where they are tracking things the same but NAM is just blasting ML warmth further north. Yea, I trust the NAM with one thing....mid level warm tongues. However, I trust it with nothing synoptically speaking, so need to see more consensus before biting off on sleet to MHT, though I have said all along that I do not rule that out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I trust the NAM with one thing....mid level warm tongues. However, I trust it with nothing synoptically speaking, so need to see more consensus before biting off on sleet to MHT, though I have said all along that I do not rule that out. It will probably correct itself if indeed the other guidance keeps the vort tracking where it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: That NAM run is pretty far north with the vort too. Tracks it up into Lake Ontario and Toronto. A lot of other guidance is more like Erie PA to BGM to MHT which would keep the sleet line probably near or south of the pike. Yeah I’d be hesitant to trust the NAM synoptically at this point so maybe it’ll come back south. I trust its thermals, but not until it gets the synoptics figured out. ninja’d by everyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: It will probably correct itself if indeed the other guidance keeps the vort tracking where it is. Check yourself before you wreck yourself It should adjust some but that ability of it to sniff out the warm mid levels is one of its strong suits. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Check yourself before you wreck yourself It should adjust some but that ability of it to sniff out the warm mid levels is one of its strong suits. Yeah. One thing I did like seeing is that secondary start to take over. That will limit the sleet extent. It’s always tough to tell on euro without good soundings but I don’t think 6z euro got much sleet past I-90. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It will probably correct itself if indeed the other guidance keeps the vort tracking where it is. I still expect at least a bit of IP or maybe some rimed flakes where I am, at least for a bit, but I do not expect it to limit accumulations much....at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah. One thing I did like seeing is that secondary start to take over. That will limit the sleet extent. It’s always tough to tell on euro without good soundings but I don’t think 6z euro got much sleet past I-90. That is the one wild card that I have been watching. I don't think it happens quickly enough for any amounts over a foot, but it may be enough to mitigate sleep migration northward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah. One thing I did like seeing is that secondary start to take over. That will limit the sleet extent. It’s always tough to tell on euro without good soundings but I don’t think 6z euro got much sleet past I-90. The dense airmass in place is going to help focus a lot of heavy lift over SNE even if we get sleet up to NH border area…so I think I’d probably be going warning snowfall amounts here unless we start getting this vort tracking north of Lake Ontario into Ottawa and start pelting the chickens. But I’m also a little bit skeptical of a very far north vort track for the same reason. Lot of confluence up there. This is a pretty ideal location for high pressure. Classic scooter high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Check yourself before you wreck yourself It should adjust some but that ability of it to sniff out the warm mid levels is one of its strong suits. That is contingent upon sound synoptics, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 I know Wachusett could really use a meaty snow dump. They are an icy thin mess right now. Oof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is contingent upon sound synoptics, though. Of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is the one wild card that I have been watching. I don't think it happens quickly enough for any amounts over a foot, but it may be enough to mitigate sleep migration northward. I think you play some twister too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is pretty snowy like region into SNH. Congrats ray. The way that this past few years has gone, I expect some kind of gradient over about Derry, NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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