HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 23 minutes ago, PhineasC said: What was this clown saying during the blizzard SNE had earlier? Many places in SNE can easily still hit average, but by then I'm sure this joker will be talking about the drought and his tomatoes. He’s a decent met. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2022 Author Share Posted February 20, 2022 So we all have experiences and personal analogs in mind ... it's part of the speculation game at this range. I wanna accentuate the notion that this is transporting a richer PWAT loading from all the way down to the Yuk Penn and adjacent Caribbean troposphere. It's 925 thru 700 mb deep layer of what probably ends up a higher PWAT air mass, S of the baroclinic axis, then is getting lifted up the warm frontal slope. Where ... it runs up underneath this 300 mb tube of escaping jet raging like an experimental outgassing at a NASA propulsion demo - Ah... hate to bun it from this range but that doesn't signal a problem with amounts of ...whatever falls. This has had that basic machinery for days of modeling now really. It may be banded, but it'll be moderate pan-dimensionally socked in, with thunder/snow bands near the sleet interface on dual pols Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 25 minutes ago, PhineasC said: What was this clown saying during the blizzard SNE had earlier? Many places in SNE can easily still hit average, but by then I'm sure this joker will be talking about the drought and his tomatoes. During the blizzard he was one of the few mets I saw that included a band of higher snow totals NW of the main show and he stuck with it through all the wobbles. Turned out to be a really good forecast. But he does love his garden, so there will be tweets. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 53 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You are not understanding more snow soundings in heavier precip. I looked hard, you glanced as you already have your mind made up just like the last 2 Are you including the 2/4 rain fest with a bit of sleet and snow at the end as one of the 2 that you mention? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: He’s a decent met. I get it. Twitter is what it is. Brings out the troll in everyone. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: So we all have experiences and personal analogs in mind ... it's part of the speculation game at this range. I wanna accentuate the notion that this is transporting a richer PWAT loading from all the way down to the Yuk Penn and adjacent Caribbean troposphere. It's 925 thru 700 mb deep layer of what probably ends up a higher PWAT air mass, S of the baroclinic axis, then is getting lifted up the warm frontal slope. Where ... it runs up underneath this 300 mb tube of escaping jet raging like an experimental outgassing at a NASA propulsion demo - Ah... hate to bun it from this range but that doesn't signal a problem with amounts of ...whatever falls. This has had that basic machinery for days of modeling now really. It may be banded, but it'll be moderate pan-dimensionally socked in, with thunder/snow bands near the sleet interface on dual pols Dude, you are good luck and this is an easy one for you. 6-10 across the area with lollies to 12. Easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2022 Author Share Posted February 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Dude, you are good luck and this is an easy one for you. 6-10 across the area with lollies to 12. Easy. What's it like up there right now... ? I got 31 F with 20 mph biting useless cold. But a very impressive cold roll-out ... we may decouple tonight, which may hinder tomorrow, ... but the sun is higher angle. We may mix out and bounce to the low 50s ...maybe mid 40s up there. Even up there, this could be an impressive 48 hours of departures en route, perhaps more anomalous at night once that happens. May be a question for the other thread - but Tuesday's system reminds me Friday's, only happening 500 mi se/track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: So we all have experiences and personal analogs in mind ... it's part of the speculation game at this range. I wanna accentuate the notion that this is transporting a richer PWAT loading from all the way down to the Yuk Penn and adjacent Caribbean troposphere. It's 925 thru 700 mb deep layer of what probably ends up a higher PWAT air mass, S of the baroclinic axis, then is getting lifted up the warm frontal slope. Where ... it runs up underneath this 300 mb tube of escaping jet raging like an experimental outgassing at a NASA propulsion demo - Ah... hate to bun it from this range but that doesn't signal a problem with amounts of ...whatever falls. This has had that basic machinery for days of modeling now really. It may be banded, but it'll be moderate pan-dimensionally socked in, with thunder/snow bands near the sleet interface on dual pols In my experience the higher level Swfe s can drop 12 to 15 inches though more generally to 6-10. The high-level ones generally have a longer period of precipitation because there is often low ratio snow involved at times aka sand. The ones that can tap the gulf or slow down and get some redevelopment tend to be the ones that can get into the 10 to 15 inch range. But Brian and Jeff taught me to expect 6-10 even the ones that look pretty good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSnowBOS Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 34 minutes ago, PhineasC said: What was this clown saying during the blizzard SNE had earlier? Many places in SNE can easily still hit average, but by then I'm sure this joker will be talking about the drought and his tomatoes. Boston meteos have been an absolute joke this winter. You have Mike wankum who I am not even sure knows what he is talking about. Said this coming storm isn’t a big storm at all. Channel 4 weather behind the scenes guy saying no more snow for rest of year - it’s been an embarrassment. Thank goodness for Harvey Leonard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2022 Author Share Posted February 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: In my experience the higher level Swfe s can drop 12 to 15 inches though more generally to 6-10. The high-level ones generally have a longer period of precipitation because there is often low ratio snow involved at times aka sand. The ones that can tap the gulf or slow down and get some redevelopment tend to be the ones that can get into the 10 to 15 inch range. But Brian and Jeff taught me to expect 6-10 even the ones that look pretty good Yeah agree... Like Phin was just saying too, this is kind of an easy assessment frankly ... I mean, as it stands now - doesn't mean things can't change, of course. But this has really been, for all intents and metrical observances, unchanged in the guidance for days. Literally, ..for some 12 cycles, other than the Euro coming S and the GFS coming N... those two principle aspects have been there. a .. Healthy PWAT transport goes into over running mechanics b .. Huge evac jet above mid levels to enchance upglide lift ( a + b )/2 = *at minimum* hitting the standard model hard, which yeah ...that's 1/4 mi vis inside of 20 minutes of onset and your good for 8" then apple crisped on top... But because those two metrics appear somewhat anomalous, that connotes a bigger upside if they continue to model as such - we'll have to see how the week goes. The other aspect ... the antecedent air mass is quite cold and back build by that nicely placed polar high. This isn't wet snow.. it's like snow to dry sleet where that happens, then freezing glaze over top..., then straight mist below a pinned warm/stationary front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: What's it like up there right now... ? I got 31 F with 20 mph biting useless cold. But a very impressive cold roll-out ... we may decouple tonight, which may hinder tomorrow, ... but the sun is higher angle. We may mix out and bounce to the low 50s ...maybe mid 40s up there. Even up there, this could be an impressive 48 hours of departures en route, perhaps more anomalous at night once that happens. May be a question for the other thread - but Tuesday's system reminds me Friday's, only happening 500 mi se/track Currently 21, about 8-10 inches snowpack. Not exactly a Feb deep winter bonanza look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: What's it like up there right now... ? I got 31 F with 20 mph biting useless cold. But a very impressive cold roll-out ... we may decouple tonight, which may hinder tomorrow, ... but the sun is higher angle. We may mix out and bounce to the low 50s ...maybe mid 40s up there. Even up there, this could be an impressive 48 hours of departures en route, perhaps more anomalous at night once that happens. May be a question for the other thread - but Tuesday's system reminds me Friday's, only happening 500 mi se/track Today felt colder than expected. Low-20s at the ski area base and -4F to +24F down in the valley for todays diurnal. More wind than expected too. I thought we’d be more like upper 20s to near 30F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2022 Author Share Posted February 20, 2022 25 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Today felt colder than expected. Low-20s at the ski area base and -4F to +24F down in the valley for todays diurnal. More wind than expected too. I thought we’d be more like upper 20s to near 30F. Similar down this way ... Nice sun illuminates the south facing rooms and then you step out there and immediately step back in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Similar down this way ... Nice sun illuminates the south facing rooms and then you step out there and immediately step back in. Definitely feeling it on the nape when indoors or in a car etc. but the air (I’m down in Taunton today) is still winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Euro looked good. Playing with fire, but a better thump verbatim. If I can grab 4-6”, some light rain and then a tuck with a change back to snow to dust it off, I’ll be happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 65-70 Wednesday with rain to an ice storm Friday . Hopefully surfaces are cold enough 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: 65-70 Wednesday with rain to an ice storm Friday . Hopefully surfaces are cold enough Prob more of a sleet bomb there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Prob more of a sleet bomb there. I’d take that. 3-5” of sleet . At least it will give a nice base . It won’t sniff 32 inland but mid level warmth is furnaced. I’d guess sleet eventually gets up into at least South Central NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: 65-70 Wednesday with rain to an ice storm Friday . Hopefully surfaces are cold enough 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Sweet gfs run. If only it was right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 hours ago, PhineasC said: These twitter fake mets are kinda all the same, honestly. Either they pimp huge snows and endless winters or they pimp huge warmth and endless summers. Wrong constantly either way. I think a lot of people may have missed a sarcasm in that Tweet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: I think a lot of people may have missed a sarcasm in that Tweet. I think he was referring to that tollandkev fella. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Sweet gfs run. If only it was right. Wow you ain’t kidding. Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Gfs looks great for all of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Wow you ain’t kidding. Ha. It keeps trying to die the primary in like WV with early development off NJ. Highly Skeptical but we can silently cheer at George’s miller B pep rally. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It keeps trying to die the primary in like WV with early development off NJ. Highly Skeptical but we can silently cheer at George’s miller B pep rally. Might not be right, but rather see that vs the low tickling Hoth’s Fanny. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I think he was referring to that tollandkev fella. You sound extremely high 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs looks great for all of SNE Lots of nyc workers live in Danbury. It’s not Jay Peak but it would double your current seasonal avg and homes are much more affordable than the city. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Lots of nyc workers live in Danbury. It’s not Jay Peak but it would double your current seasonal avg and homes are much more affordable than the city. Don’t waste your time. I have had this discussion with him many times. He isn’t in control of where he lives. Maybe message his mom and fiancée and talk to them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Don’t waste your time. I have had this discussion with him many times. He isn’t in control of where he lives. Maybe message his mom and fiancée and talk to them. Yep I would love to live anywhere besides NYC but that's not going to happen. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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