Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: What you said! Haha NBM is very intuitive and has so many parts, but it is a great tool to use on certain setups, and ice is actually not bad for a general storm sense since it drowns out the noise from the extreme members that could skew means considerably. I will saw it is not the best when it comes to extreme temp variations compared to climo and larger impact events that have a mesoscale foot print like a major snow/ice event or severe out break. They can give an idea of what could occur in a smoothed sense, but knowing your biases can help formulate a better forecast. That is awesome that you have worked with the Blend. I would love to hear more of the nitty gritty with NBM as I've used it for forecast purposes now for almost 4 years. Thanks! Yeah, it's far from perfect but it's improved over the years based on feedback, etc., from the field and others. I can see how it wouldn't fare as well in the cases you mentioned. Sort of how MOS cannot handle such events, though the NBM isn't really "MOS" (it does use that as one input, though). In some instances we use other techniques for the "blended" forecast. Such as things related to thunderstorms and severe weather from the SPC, or using the FRAM for the ice accretion that you displayed above. Snow-liquid ratio is perhaps about the most tricky parameter, as I'm sure you're aware. You can get some really wacky values at times, which would affect the total snow amounts. I'd be glad to bend your ear some about the Blend sometime. Glad it's proving to be useful at least as a starting point in the forecast process. Though I work on some aspects of it, I would hesitate to say I'm all-knowing by any means. It's got a lot of "tentacles" so to speak. There are many who work on this, of course, and have "taken on" various elements. I also work with the whole implementation process (sometimes, I wish I didn't, but anyhow, LOL!!!) and getting that all organized. Which is a task in itself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lake Frederick Mike Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Good news! Temp has dropped 21 degrees in the last 3 hours! Um…from 71 to 50. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 46/33, definitely cooled down fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 69 at 3pm, 43 now. The chill is on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2022 Author Share Posted February 24, 2022 At this rate we’ll be in the teens by morning lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 I don't think Rain at 30 will do much after temps the past few days Im more Interested in the sleet potential some of the models are showing. Could be a several hour period of sleet tomorrow evening which would be interesting 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Down to 41. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I don't think Rain at 30 will do much after temps the past few days Im more Interested in the sleet potential some of the models are showing. Could be a several hour period of sleet tomorrow evening which would be interesting Most of the freezing rain potential comes after the sun goes down tomorrow eve. Dark, 30 and rain will have no problem on trees and power lines especially after a day of temps around freezing. You are going to be in a nasty spot if temps pan out as forecast, imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 High of 74 51/34 now gusty nw winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Thanks! Yeah, it's far from perfect but it's improved over the years based on feedback, etc., from the field and others. I can see how it wouldn't fare as well in the cases you mentioned. Sort of how MOS cannot handle such events, though the NBM isn't really "MOS" (it does use that as one input, though). In some instances we use other techniques for the "blended" forecast. Such as things related to thunderstorms and severe weather from the SPC, or using the FRAM for the ice accretion that you displayed above. Snow-liquid ratio is perhaps about the most tricky parameter, as I'm sure you're aware. You can get some really wacky values at times, which would affect the total snow amounts. I'd be glad to bend your ear some about the Blend sometime. Glad it's proving to be useful at least as a starting point in the forecast process. Though I work on some aspects of it, I would hesitate to say I'm all-knowing by any means. It's got a lot of "tentacles" so to speak. There are many who work on this, of course, and have "taken on" various elements. I also work with the whole implementation process (sometimes, I wish I didn't, but anyhow, LOL!!!) and getting that all organized. Which is a task in itself. Would absolutely love to chat at some point about all this! I have a lot of feedback to give for even my area of the country and how it fares. Perhaps a virtual meetup with a cocktail is in order? Feel free to PM me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 This may surprise, but I am leaning milder for MD and definitely VA, the cold push will be repelled slowly but surely and the ice or sleet will be largely confined to the northern tier of counties in MD and southern PA, as temps recover to mid to high 40s F around midnight, with a south wind resuming by 8 p.m. ... there could be minor icing further south before this pushback sets in. Maybe this is not very different from what others are expecting, I haven't read every post just the more recent ones. This looks like the typical early spring coastal transfer upstate NY-nPA-inland NE snowstorm scenario with 8-12 inch potential there. Worst icing from this around Reading PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 8 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: This may surprise, but I am leaning milder for MD and definitely VA, the cold push will be repelled slowly but surely and the ice or sleet will be largely confined to the northern tier of counties in MD and southern PA, as temps recover to mid to high 40s F around midnight, with a south wind resuming by 8 p.m. ... there could be minor icing further south before this pushback sets in. Maybe this is not very different from what others are expecting, I haven't read every post just the more recent ones. This looks like the typical early spring coastal transfer upstate NY-nPA-inland NE snowstorm scenario with 8-12 inch potential there. Worst icing from this around Reading PA. Agree. It’s not really a stretch in thinking. Our best ice events come with a wedged in arctic high over upstate NY that ends up retreating slowly east. Starts as snow and transitions but the low level cold is slow to erode with snow changing to light rain of drizzle with light winds. This setup has none of that. We are just talking about this out of sheer boredom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Down to 41. 9 from snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: I'm 6 from snow Not too much being said because the N/W folks are a small percentage of the sub, but look out for this event. Could sneak up on those that haven't been watching the models. Cold press looks solid based on obs thus far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I'm 6 from snow The 18z gfs had some light snow/sleet for the afternoon also. Wouldn't be shocking for us to see a minor accumulation prior to nightfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 39 degrees. Over a 30 degree drop from earlier this afternoon. Impressive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 39 degrees. Over a 30 degree drop from earlier this afternoon. Impressive 36 here after a high of 69 early this afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 36.5F here on the M/D. What a drop since mid afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Temp down to 43. 30F off the high in about 6-7 hours. Lol where was this sort of drop 3 other times this winter when we weren’t starting in the 70s?? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Nam finally folds. Icy as all get out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Temp down to 43. 30F off the high in about 6-7 hours. Lol where was this sort of drop 3 other times this winter when we weren’t starting in the 70s?? Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Namd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 0Z WB 3K NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 HoCo sleet death band let’s goooooooo!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Well time to charge up my devices lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Drunk in Rehoboth. Where’s my ice storm!? @CAPE 120 Min IPA in Sherry Barrels—will set you the F free! Only draft unfortunately but holy effin hell… 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 hours ago, Roger Smith said: This may surprise, but I am leaning milder for MD and definitely VA, the cold push will be repelled slowly but surely and the ice or sleet will be largely confined to the northern tier of counties in MD and southern PA, as temps recover to mid to high 40s F around midnight, with a south wind resuming by 8 p.m. ... there could be minor icing further south before this pushback sets in. Maybe this is not very different from what others are expecting, I haven't read every post just the more recent ones. I'm calling complete and total b.s. here. There isn't a model that gets 40 degrees to DC or even close by midnight tomorrow night, much less mid to upper 40s. This isn't some 995 sfc low blasting by to our northwest; it's a weak surface system with an accompanying weak pressure gradient, and the cold wedge will take time to erode. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Rgem coming in colder. Actually has an inch or so of snow in the afternoon for the M/D line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Gfs has leesburg at 28 at 18z. 32 or below for entire event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 My point and click says 1" of sleet and .25" of ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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