stormtracker Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 @ 114 vs 6z, freezing line is further south..at 6z was just north of DC...now it's just south of DC, lol Then 117, moves just north of DC...basically just north of DC seems to get the frozen so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 @120 basically matches 6z. N and W burbs ice thingy. Yall can have it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Thru 7 am Fri GFS still showing ice storm ( and not over) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2022 Author Share Posted February 20, 2022 GFS is starting to pick up on the cad. A 1040 over Quebec is nothing to sneeze at. Move that the Vermont border and this would get fun fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2022 Author Share Posted February 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Thru 7 am Fri GFS still showing ice storm ( and not over) We know it won’t happen, but that would be awful. It would create a lot of damage. Once you reach 1/2” of ice bad stuff starts happening quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: We know it won’t happen, but that would be awful. It would create a lot of damage. Once you reach 1/2” of ice bad stuff starts happening quickly. SV looks a bit difference. Freezing line placement wouldn't look like those maps. For you, yes. For me, no 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2022 Author Share Posted February 20, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: SV looks a bit difference. Freezing line placement wouldn't look like those maps. For you, yes. For me, no That’s good. I have no desire to see that. However … and this is a big one, if … if the gfs is correct with the storm placement, it is almost 100% gonna under forecast the low level cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s good. I have no desire to see that. However … and this is a big one, if … if the gfs is correct with the storm placement, it is almost 100% gonna under forecast the low level cold. Let me clarify...you'd be f*cked on both maps. The differences are for my area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2022 Author Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Let me clarify...you'd be f*cked on both maps. The differences are for my area. Lol, if the cad is under done then you will be in the same boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol, if the cad is under done then you will be in the same boat. This is the one time where I hope the GFS is too cold, which it has been for most of the year. If it's not going to snow, I'm over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Gfs is incrementally ticking the confluence to our N/NE northward last 4 runs. Still a long ways away but run over run adjustments show the gfs backing away from really pressing down on us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Let's wreck up the place. Go ice go. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Winter's over. Moose out front should have told ya. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 I hope you get an inch of ice!Hes given us 12-18 inches of annoyance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 From a very practical standpoint have an appointment Friday am and need to drive east on 70 from Brunswick to Ellicott City so need to figure out if the GFS is correct or need to reschedule.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Does GFS truly handle CAD better than every other model tho? Euro limits the ice (so far) to western MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Does GFS truly handle CAD better than every other model tho? Euro limits the ice (so far) to western MD How would ya say this compares to a couple weeks ago when it overdid the cold push? Although I'm guessing that wasn't really a CAD situation like this might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: How would ya say this compares to a couple weeks ago when it overdid the cold push? I'm guessing that wasn't really a CAD situation like this might be. I think it has a heavy bias of overdoing cold and bringing it in too fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 You mean when IronTy cancelled winter the other day, he could be wrong? That’s unpossible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 WB 12Z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO Looks realistic. Plus, experience reminds us that freezing rain has a big impact when the qpf is light and almost freezing drizzle, no wind, and late night just before dawn. Tho...the map above is for 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 59 minutes ago, paxpatriot said: You mean when IronTy cancelled winter the other day, he could be wrong? That’s unpossible. He should've had his wife fire winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Looks a little warmer on 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Looks a little warmer on 18z GFS. Last 5 runs of the GFS has higher heights from the previous. Give it another day and it will look like other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Pretty evident to me by now that this ice event is going to be a northern/western MD, western VA, and north event. I'm sure we may see a couple of stray model runs that look like the colder air is "farther south this run!" but I honestly don't see the overall picture changing much. Sort of like the big New England storm a few weeks back, where we hung on every slight hint of a "closer to the coast" thread. Still, I would not be surprised to see a bit of sleet or ice in the DC metro area at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 WB 18Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 This is definitely turning to a more northern tier event with Western MD involved, perhaps. I think this is PA/NYS storm by the looks of it. CIPS Analogs is pretty meager for south of the M/D, and there's lots of events that are similar in evolution in the past with good scoring on 5H/7H/85H height fields. Unless we see an abrupt shift with the SLP depiction further south or the blocking up north is stronger, likely going to trend a minor to nada for most of the sub-forum. That's just from everything I've looked at recently. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 10 hours ago, North Balti Zen said: On the contrary - time to put superstitions behind us. We fail whether there is a thread or not. Sigh. Each day we stray further from the gods. May they take mercy on our souls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Sigh. Each day we stray further from the gods. May they take mercy on our souls. We need to appease Jobu. Wake up the snowstorms. Just don't steal his rum...is very bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 My superstition...or calendar-stition...is that we don't get much good happening the week after PD, lol I don't know why but all the big snows either came before or not until March. No scientific reason...It just never seems to work out at least for my atea--even in the legendary 2010 we missed one that last week of Feb (as if we needed more at that point--certainly not complaining!). Again no science...just calendar-stition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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