aldie 22 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 I'll say this it's frigid up here where I am and only getting frigider...if this heads your way later it could be messy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Rgem still damn icy for northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 WB 18Z GFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS Better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Just saw what the Euro spit out . Pretty nuts . Doesn't get northern tier above freezing till 11am or so on Friday. Half of that zrain would be a significant event on trees and power lines . All guidance appears onboard for possible significant icing in the favored areas. Agreed, first it was the GFS was on it's own. Then the high resolutions were thrown out because of range. NOW, the formally warm Euro is fully on board for the Norther tier, as is the Canadian. This could be very bad up here overnight Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 3K at 60 hmm... not quite at the stage of taking the 3k serious but that's much more widespread than I'd would have guessed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Seems like perhaps the difference between this event and the last ice event that failed and went way north is that there is actual CAD involved this time with high pressure locked in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Historically and climo wise this setup definitely argues for significant icing and surface temp holding power . Thursday early evening High placement looks legit stout. I don’t know about holding “power”though…lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: I don’t know about holding “power”though…lol Lol yeah, that cold is gonna run like a stray dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol yeah, that cold is gonna run like a stray dog I meant the power is likely to go out if we get that much ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 WB 18Z EURO is a tick North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Gimme dat ice. I need it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 lol, NAM doubling down. Got colder 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol, NAM doubling down. Got colder More confluence up north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 It's gonna be real funny when the NAM schools yall! NAM all the way baby!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 lol, not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 In all seriousness, this is a Mason Dixon event and it looks like it could be impactful up there. @mappy Good luck. I'll send you pics with my lights on. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 40 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: We're talking ice but Hrrr says Winchester gets snow lol If it snows one flake here I’ll change my screen name to HRRR 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: If it snows one flake here I’ll change my screen name to HRRR All the Rs tho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Pretty straightforward .Strong Banana high .Temps go below freezing Wed evening and stay at or below in many favored areas till mid to late morning Friday verbatim. Roughly 36 hours. Most precip is over by then. Tomorrow's 12z runs should settle in on the specifics more hopefully. Guidance has definitely zeroed in on most of Pennsylvania getting a really hard hit with ice . It's almost a lock for them . Far northern tier of Md is gaining support fast to join them imo. Don’t think you got the joke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 The NAM is prolly a little too cold. Can probably add +2 to +35 to those temps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: All the Rs tho? Hell, I don’t know how many there are supposed to be lol. No worries about it being right outside of an hour or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Hell, I don’t know how many there are supposed to be lol. No worries about it being right outside of an hour or two Real talk, I think this might be a decent event for your neck of the woods and points NNW of you. I mean, it's not going to be a world ender, but hey...it's activity I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 The high does have staying power though... it fades but doesn't run off the to the east with rapid return flow. Typically, these trend colder as we near game time. I know my local climo though, 33.8 with rain is most likely. Just a little elevation to the the north could be in for a nasty icing event, imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 0Z WB 3K NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 0Z WB 3K NAM That's a Hella sleet storm in the Catoctins 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I think I'm buying on sleet and freezing rain for at least a while in much of the area. Even if the sfc temps are too cold in the NAMs (and I'm not convinced that they are), it's pretty clear that there will be a fairly deep layer below freezing just above. Shows up really well on the NAM Nest: Even the GFS has the same idea - the cold layer isn't as cold or as deep, but it's there. The winds in that cold layer are southeast, so it won't be able to hold in for the whole night (until you get further north), but I think that the idea of a cold layer near the ground during the late afternoon and evening could very well be correct. The biggest wild card is actual precip, as there is still limited agreement on the QPF details. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: good thing no one lives there! /s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: On a more serious note -- I'm somewhat skeptical it accretes that perfectly at 30-32 degrees and moderate/heavy precip. Timing has "improved" so it has that going for it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: On a more serious note -- I'm somewhat skeptical it accretes that perfectly at 30-32 degrees and moderate/heavy precip. Timing has "improved" so it has that going for it. This is a fair point. None of these accumulation computations is making any attempt to determine how efficiently the ice can accrete. They're just looking for freezing rain as the precip type at the top of the hour, and if that is found, all of the QPF from the past hour (or in some cases, 3 or 6 hours!) goes into the freezing rain bucket. In fact, only the RAP/HRRR actually have a true tallies of freezing rain and sleet. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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