Baum Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 21 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: call looking ok typical February. Two days after a round of thunderstorms and 50 degrees going to get a high ratio/low moistrure 3-5" lake enhanced event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 18 hours ago, mimillman said: Trip to the UP in 10 days looking golden It's fantastic up here! Just got here last night. Still had full snowcover when i left home, missing the disgusting melt and mild rain and enjoying some cold UP snow. Then come home Friday to fresh snow. Been a fun month! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: It's fantastic up here! Just got here last night. Still had full snowcover when i left home, missing the disgusting melt and mild rain and enjoying some cold UP snow. Then come home Friday to fresh snow. Been a fun month! we really need to add a pissed off/jealous emoji on this forum to comment on posts 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 19 minutes ago, Baum said: you'll still be polishing that turd on Easter sunday most likely for a little frosting to add some sweetness. enjoy. Only 8 weeks till spring. ^Have to admit the more he talks about how snowy the winters really are over the last decade the more it seems to verify in his backyard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Only 8 weeks till spring. The longest 8 weeks... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 or 4 weeks...but who's counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, Frog Town said: or 4 weeks...but who's counting. Officially meteorological spring begins next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 never good when 12Z models are rolling and the storm thread is mere banter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 16 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: euro ensemble with the gfs for comparison. looking like more of a run of the mill snow for now but still a few days out Edit: ment to post his here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 GFS still trying to make something of this but everything else looks like trash. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Not to steal Alek's final call, but this feels like around 4" here. I suppose it could even go slightly over if things break favorably. There are some steeper lapse rates aloft so could see some heavier bursts of snow at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 41 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: GFS still trying to make something of this but everything else looks like trash. Lol you'd have killed for this event 30 days ago. Your lack of appreciation going to come back to haunt. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Always be humble. I will be happy myself later this week with 3 or 4 inches. Before we know it we will have squall lines rolling thru 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 50 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Always be humble. I will be happy myself later this week with 3 or 4 inches. Before we know it we will have squall lines rolling thru good chunk of this board loves a good squall line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 nice inverted trough feature with this one, will extend some light snows well NW of the low. first and final call of 3" here 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Looking like a nice fluffy 2-4/3-5 type deal with some lake enhancement. Getting to that time of year when getting heavier rates matter more toward pavement accums during the day, so the bulk of the snow falling after dark means no issues there. Not really buying that heavier snow swath south idea like GFS is holding onto. Euro has a stout mid-level wave pivoting through while we're in the left exit region of the departing upper jet. That plus deep DGZ should mean 15-20:1 ratios are attainable as long as the strongest lift is well aligned with the DGZ. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Heading into this storm, it's going to look exactly the same outside as it did heading into the 2/17 event... just piles and drifted areas of snow left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 hours ago, Baum said: you'd have killed for this event 30 days ago. Your lack of appreciation going to come back to haunt. I would be ecstatic for a solid advisory event! No lack of appreciation here! I was saying most guidance has 1-2in which is sub advisory levels. But I will take what I can get! I was mostly saying this system is a letdown compared to last few systems but any winter precip is good to me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Really great summary of the two waves for those in the LSX forecast area. As was previously discussed, two relatively distinct rounds of wintry precipitation will impact the region. The first round, forced mainly be isentropic overrunning stimulated by a shortwave amidst southwesterly mid-level flow, will draw wintry precipitation into the region. Latest short-range ensembles and CAMs now indicate a weaker, more confined area (largely along/south of I-70) of wintry precipitation with this first round. From a conceptual standpoint, this makes sense as the upper-level synoptic forcing and isentropic ascent is not impressive by any stretch. Model soundings Wednesday evening illustrate a sub-saturated DGZ, with a deep saturated layer beneath that amidst modest lift. A stout warm nose that barely peaks above freezing aloft can be discerned between I-70 and I-44, but any hydrometeors that melt will most likely refreeze as sleet in the deep cold layer beneath. Further south still, we will likely see more mixing of rain and sleet where the warm layer is deeper. While accumulations with this initial round will be lighter compared to the next bout on Thursday (as the forcing within the system is so weak), the onset timing coinciding with the evening rush hour will likely lead to travel impacts. Overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning, what weak overrunning and forcing that does exist will further diminish and precipitation will become lighter and more scattered across the southern CWA. Some model soundings hint at the potential for freezing drizzle during this "lull" overnight. A nearly-saturated layer extending from near the surface to around 700mb exists overnight south of I-70 with some modest lift in the layer. While light, a glaze of ice cannot be ruled out for some during this relative break in the system. The more impressive of the two waves will move into the bi-state area during the early morning on Thursday and will re-stimulate precipitation areawide in time for the morning commute. Deterministic guidance agrees that the orientation and depth of the mid-level trough will not be favorable for more robust surface cyclogenesis. While a low will be deepening, it will be slow to do so given the weak amplification and diffluence in the mid/upper levels. As such, moist isentropic ascent and overrunning would be the main sources of forcing for this second round. This scenario is supported in the isentropic fields among the deterministic guidance, which shows more extensive and impressive isentropic lift across the region. Precipitation types will vary across the region tomorrow. North of I- 70 will see almost exclusively snow, but given the lack of a more robust synoptic system any mesoscale banding that would cause more intense localized snow totals are highly unlikely. Another aspect working against higher snow totals: the DGZ never saturates in any notable way, which severely decreases the efficiency of dendritic growth. This scenario is further supported by the NBM interquartile range for snow not including amounts larger than 4" in the northern CWA. There is some raw guidance that suggests higher amounts, but they are likely being influenced by sleet contamination. For the area that will largely see accumulating snow and not much changing precipitation type, a Winter Weather Advisory was issued this afternoon. South of this area, along I-70 south to just south of I-44, a corridor of significant sleet is expected to develop and cause notable impacts to travel for the morning commute Thursday. Model soundings show more notable lift compared to the first wave, with a largely-similar thermodynamic profile. NBM probabilities of sleet are also relatively high in the mid/late morning through the afternoon (topping out at 60%, but may still be too low). Sleet accumulations up to 1" can be expected, which would be quite impactful. As such, a Winter Storm Warning was issued for the areas where sleet accumulations would exceed 0.5". Further south still, the depth of the warm nose aloft will be much more pronounced, which in turn makes the cold air below it more shallow. This would be a much more favorable scenario for freezing rain, especially if surfaces cool as precipitation falls with the first wave of wintry mix Wednesday evening. That being said, accumulations on roadways will still be limited as the sun angle for this time of year and barely-freezing conditions will not promote efficient accretion. Admittedly, this forecast may be a bit too bullish on those ice totals, especially if the above-mentioned limitations come to fruition. On elevated surfaces, which would be a bit cooler, ice accretion would be more efficient and could lead to downed tree limbs and power outages in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Given the potential for significant impacts and ice accumulations, a Winter Storm Warning more specifically for ice was issued across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Precipitation wanes during the evening Thursday from west to east as the system intensifies and ejects east out of the region. Temperatures stay below average and skies begin to clear as our third winter system in as many weeks comes to an end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 FV3 to the rescue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said: I would be ecstatic for a solid advisory event! No lack of appreciation here! I was saying most guidance has 1-2in which is sub advisory levels. But I will take what I can get! I was mostly saying this system is a letdown compared to last few systems but any winter precip is good to me. You get any thunder today? Got woke up about 4:10 this morning with some good thunder and lightning, then torrential bursts of rainfall. Radar estimates of 1.5" but airport recordings overnight have been down for a while now. Either way, been a long time since a good thunderstorm. I'll trade snow for that any day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, WeatherMonger said: You get any thunder today? Got woke up about 4:10 this morning with some good thunder and lightning, then torrential bursts of rainfall. Radar estimates of 1.5" but airport recordings overnight have been down for a while now. Either way, been a long time since a good thunderstorm. I'll trade snow for that any day. Had a few rumbles this morning! It was so nice. Let me know spring storms are just around corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On 2/20/2022 at 1:25 PM, cyclone77 said: I gonna pull an ALEK, 3" final call. Call looking money. Gonna have to "ALEK" more often lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 LOT honing in on MBY in this mornings AFD: HOWEVER. ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THIS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN KEYING IN ON AN AREA OF HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON THE NORTH SIDE, POSSIBLY TIED TO A NARROW DEFORMATION AXIS/MID-LEVEL FGEN AND AIDED BY SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. call: 5" a lock. miss the RC/IZZI tag team on this event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 7 hours ago, ILSNOW said: FV3 to the rescue model of choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 ride it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I like 3-7 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 FV3 for $100 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 this looks to be a fairly quick hitter here, modeled snow is right now from about 4 PM to 4 AM but this reminds me of those storms where dry air really eats at the back side and the end of snow comes flying through 3 to 4 hours before expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 12Z Nam beginning to show it's hand. Before you get too excited, the stuff in Mid-Ohio is sleet and freezing rain. SE Michigan looks to take the cake with this one, at least with this model, on this run. We are getting into the NAM's "accurate" range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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