MJO812 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Since when did you become so negative? Is this an all out snow storm for NYC? No. But can we tack a couple inches (including sleet) on to seasonal totals? Yes. I also look at things from a snow removal and overtime lens. Who is negative? It's about not living in a fantasy land. What is stopping this from going more north? SWFE storms usually trend north. The primary isn't dying out like past gfs runs had it. You aren't getting a snow event in NYC with a primary to PA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 58 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Who is negative? It's about not living in a fantasy land. What is stopping this from going more north? SWFE storms usually trend north. The primary isn't dying out like past gfs runs had it. You aren't getting a snow event in NYC with a primary to PA. Again, I’m looking to pad totals and do some snow removal $$$$$$. That’s still a likely scenario. We have cold offshore water temps and some decent cold to start the event. I’m looking for 2-4” including sleet before a change to rain then dry slot. I bet there is snow on the ground Friday. I’m also in the far Nw part of the city, I can see the Gwb from campus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Again, I’m looking to pad totals and do some snow removal $$$$$$. That’s still a likely scenario. We have cold offshore water temps and some decent cold to start the event. I’m looking for 2-4” including sleet before a change to rain then dry slot. I bet there is snow on the ground Friday. I’m also in the far Nw part of the city, I can see the Gwb from campus. It's certainly possible for the precip to come in faster than modeled with these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 7:00 pm Thursday a small spot check of guidance available (atm) don't pay the ferryman 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: What is stopping this from going more north? SWFE storms usually trend north. I think you're underestimating the weight and density of the cold to the north. IMO this storm doesn't have the oomph to push very far into an expanding cold air mass. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 45 minutes ago, gravitylover said: I think you're underestimating the weight and density of the cold to the north. IMO this storm doesn't have the oomph to push very far into an expanding cold air mass. That’s not how it works 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 CMC just came in colder than last night's run. Quite a bit of sleet and freezing rain. The chance of getting snow from this event is fading, but ice is another story. If it happens, hopefully we'll get more sleet than freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 There still needs to be more of a north shift than even the 12Z GFS in the end to avoid big icing problems for a large part of the area...its never good when at 96 hours even the low res in terms of seeing cold air GFS has FZRA down to EWR-HPN..that tells you in reality if that exact scenario unfolded it would be a good 30 miles south of that if not more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Upton Cold 1040mb high pressure remains anchored over Ontario on Thursday, a day that now looks to be mostly dry locally, with increasing clouds by later in the day. Models have again trended slightly north and have slowed the system for Thursday-Friday. Surface low pressure develops across the mid south, and heads through the OH Valley ahead of the aforementioned upper trough. With a weaker system overall and better dynamics to the north, models continue to bring a warm front north later Thursday and develop a secondary low along it by Friday morning. This low becomes the primary system as the mid trough approaches the coast by later on Friday, and deepens as it moves north of the region. This scenario would yield a general snow to rain ptype change across the area, with a transition to a wintry mix in between, starting late Thursday into Fri afternoon. QPF for the event is looking like a broad 0.5-1" across the area, with NBM IQR a bit higher, between about 0.6" and 1.25". Accumulating snow would be most likely across the interior where the changeover would be slowest. WPC maintains a 50% probability of advisory level snow here, with a 30% chance for NYC south and east. NBM v4.1 has maintained its snow exceedance trend this evening, with about a 30- 35% prob of >6" across the far interior, with 5-20% across the remainder of the CWA, which is similar to its previous few cycles. As a reminder, low track and intensity uncertainty plays into the ptype uncertainty and changes to this scenario are likely, and expected, as we are still 4-5 days out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 21 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: CMC just came in colder than last night's run. Quite a bit of sleet and freezing rain. The chance of getting snow from this event is fading, but ice is another story. If it happens, hopefully we'll get more sleet than freezing rain. Quite colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Any maps available for CMC sleet totals? Not 10:1 and not 0:1 either.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Looked at the 12z GFS very quickly. The primary makes it to around Albany before transferring to the coast. Seems like a classic late developing miller B. Coastal develops so late that really only Central and Northern New England cash in. The ice threat looks minimal as unlike the last storm, temperatures are warming at the surface. You do have that 1036mb high over SE Canada but it's retreating and not far enough South. We would have wanted it over Northern New England. 850mb freezing line moves well North after 12z Friday. Anyone North of the 0c line on this frame is good for about a 6 hour period of Snow changing to sleet and then some freezing rain before everyone flips over to plain rain. South of this is mostly sleet/ice changing to plain rain. Even over Rockland sounding show the surface around 30 which won't be cold enough to cause significant icing issues, especially since it will be short lived. If you look at the trend for the last four runs, it did actually hang onto the cold air longer after trending warmer the last two runs. Still time to go but we're a long way away from a big snow storm South of I-84. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 The Canadian is not a big snowstorm for anyone is this forum. A lot of sleet and ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 The 12z GGEM is give or take an inch of liquid as sleet for most of this area. Freezing rain pretty much stays South of I-78 and snow is North of I-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Quite colder There’s virtually no snow at all on that south of I-84. The midlevels are completely torched and fast. The midlevel low tracks are awful 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The Canadian is not a big snowstorm for anyone is this forum. A lot of sleet and ice. I’m 20 miles north of 84 and the warm cmc gives me 6 inches. I’m not buying the sleetfest for everybody. Places north of NYC and south of 84 will see some snow before changeover. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 how much of a shift do you need for your backyard????? stay with it........ 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 12Z Canadian is showing basically what the GFS has - a significant Icing event for areas mainly from central NJ and northbound.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I’m 20 miles north of 84 and the warm cmc gives me 6 inches. I’m not buying the sleetfest for everybody. Places north of NYC and south of 84 will see some snow before changeover. Look at the soundings, that is definitely not snow south of I-84, it’s sleet at best with that midlevel warm nose and almost all of the time those warm noses are badly underestimated not overdone by the models 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 15 minutes ago, Doorman said: how much of a shift do you need for your backyard????? stay with it........ You’re not getting a big snow storm here with those mid level low tracks. Everything is too far North. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: You’re not getting a big snow storm here with those mid level low tracks. Everything is too far North. You'd need substantial shifts south. At this point I'm hoping for north ticks to avoid the mess. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: You’re not getting a big snow storm here with those mid level low tracks. Everything is too far North. the last day we have been talking ICE for most of NYC metro NOT SNOW..... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 biggest euro run of the season up next.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 36 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Look at the soundings, that is definitely not snow south of I-84, it’s sleet at best with that midlevel warm nose and almost all of the time those warm noses are badly underestimated not overdone by the models The soundings for the CMC are 6 hour increments. The CMC which is the warmest of the models still gives a couple inches well south of 84. How many times have we seen precip come in faster than modeled and a cold arctic high underestimated by models? How many? The moderate/heavy snows will likely be north of 84 but it's very plausible to see snow south of 84. Look at the 12z's, every model gives anywhere from 1-4 north of NYC up to 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 12z snowmaps 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 So close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 euro pops a coastal low ......more changes ahead 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Doorman said: euro pops a coastal low ......more changes ahead It's further south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 12Z Euro is decently improved, still don't think it'll be enough for the coast but starting to think I287 to I84 corridor still in play for a solid event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: It's further south and at the benchmark the next run???? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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